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St Kilda vs Port Adelaide AFL Round 18 Tips - St Kilda To Strengthen Wild Card Charge

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Fri 10 Jul 2026 08:22

Ryan Tucker 10 Jul 2026

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Saints tipped to cover -9.5; Port struggling with injuries.
Game expected to go Under 172.5 points due to strong defences.
Key player props: Wanganeen-Milera 2+ goals, Horne-Francis 25+ disposals.
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, 11th July, with the bounce at 1:15 PM (AEST)

St Kilda vs Port Adelaide

St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power, Round 18 2026 - Expert Prediction

St Kilda -9.5, Game Total Under 172.5, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 2+ goals and Jason Horne-Francis 25+ Disposals are the four plays for Saturday afternoon at Marvel Stadium.

St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power, Round 18 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Port Adelaide Power Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power Team List & News
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide AFL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s

St Kilda's Disposals advantage of +41.2 in this matchup is the most dominant structural edge and their Contested Possession edge of +6.0 on the season directly addresses Port's biggest weakness. The Saints have now beaten the Power in both of their last two meetings, by 14 pts and 17 pts, and Port arrive here at 6-10 with a list that has been decimated by injury and fatigue through a brutal run.

Port Adelaide are averaging 77.8 pts over their last five games with a list missing Connor Rozee, Esava Ratugolea, Ewan Mackinlay and others throughout the season. They have shown sparks of

The Under 172.5 fits perfectly. Port are averaging 77.8 pts over their last five games and held North Melbourne to 52 pts last week in a game dominated by free kicks and stoppages rather than free-flowing attack. St Kilda's defence allows 86.0 pts per game and Port's allows 78.9. Both defences are sound and Port's attack at 80.9 pts per game gives nothing away on the Over.

Wanganeen-Milera at 2+ goals is supported by recent form. He had a career-high 46 Disposals against Essendon last week and kicked two goals against Port in Round 5 this season. When he is running freely at Marvel Stadium with time and space, he creates scoring opportunities and Port's defence cannot contain his pace and skill. Horne-Francis at 25+ Disposals is the reliable Port prop, he had 26 against St Kilda in Round 5, 28 in Round 4 2025 and 28 in Round 16 2024, consistently accumulating in this matchup even when the Power lose.

Take St Kilda -9.5, Game Total Under 172.5, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 2+ goals and Jason Horne-Francis 25+ Disposals.

St Kilda won both recent meetings with the Power by 14 and 17 pts and have a dominant advantage in Disposals and Contested Possessions.
Port are averaging just 77.8 pts over their last five games and both defences are well above average on the season.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera kicked 2 goals against Port in Round 5 this season and had 46 Disposals last week against Essendon, arriving in career form ahead of a home game against a depleted Power side.
Jason Horne-Francis has collected 26, 28 and 28 Disposals in his last three games against St Kilda and is the Power's primary ball-winner in a side that will lean heavily on him without Butters at full capacity.

Head to Head Stats

Port Adelaide hold a 26-13 all-time lead and are 6-3 at Marvel Stadium. The Saints have reversed that trend recently, winning the last two meetings in 2026 and 2025. The last five head-to-head results have gone 14, 17, 2, 10 and 7 pts with the series averaging under 10 pts per game.

St Kilda Saints Form Analysis

St Kilda were dominant against Essendon, piling on 13 first-half goals in a 67 pt win at Marvel Stadium. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera had a career-high 46 Disposals and 906 metres gained, Brad Hill added 40 and Max Hall 33 in a total team performance that showed what this Saints side can do when they are moving freely. Tom De Koning missed with ribs and Jack Sinclair with a calf, and both are in doubt again this week.

Port Adelaide Power Form Analysis

Port's comeback season narrative received a genuine boost with a 21 pt win over North Melbourne, kicking the only three goals of the final quarter to run away after scores were level at three-quarter time. Zak Butters had 26 Disposals and seven score involvements, Jason Horne-Francis was outstanding with 24 Disposals and nine Clearances, and Mitch Georgiades booted three. The free-kick count blew out to 70 for the match in a stop-start contest that suited Port's physical style more than North's running game.

St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power Team List & News

St Kilda Saints Team News: Ross Lyon has opted for stability, naming an unchanged side following last week's performance. The Saints will take continuity into an important clash against Port Adelaide.

Port Adelaide Power Team News: Kane Farrell returns after missing last week's match, replacing Brandon Zerk-Thatcher. The Power will be looking for greater run and ball movement from half-back with Farrell back in the side.

St Kilda	POS	Port Adelaide
J. Silvagni, C. Wilkie, A. Caminiti	B	K. Farrell, M. Bergman, J. Lai
B. Hill, A. Hastie, R. Byrnes	HB	D. Byrne-Jones, A. Aliir, L. Jones
D. Wilson, M. Windhager, L. O'Connell	C	J. Lukosius, J. Horne-Francis, J. Burgoyne
J. Higgins, L. Ryan, M. Hall	HF	X. Bamert, M. Georgiades, J. Berry
M. Wood, C. Sharman, M. Owens	F	C. Durdin, J. Whitlock, J. Richards
R. Marshall, H. Garcia, N. Wanganeen-Milera	FOLL	J. Sweet, Z. Butters, W. Drew
T. Travaglia, L. Stocker, L. Henry, M. Phillipou, C. Lake	I/C	M. Zadow, L. Evans, O. Wines, J. Mead, D. Visentini

St Kilda vs Port Adelaide AFL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch St Kilda vs Port Adelaide AFL 2026 Round 18?

You can watch the St Kilda vs Port Adelaide AFL 2026 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to St Kilda vs Port Adelaide AFL 2026 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the St Kilda vs Port Adelaide AFL 2026 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official St Kilda site.

Verdict

St Kilda Saints v Port Adelaide Power

Take St Kilda -9.5, Game Total Under 172.5, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 2+ goals and Jason Horne-Francis 25+ Disposals.

St Kilda -9.5

Line

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