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Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL Round 18 Tips - Hawks end Carlton’s streak

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Fri 10 Jul 2026 08:24

Jeremy Darke 10 Jul 2026

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Hawthorn favoured to cover -12.5 based on recent dominance over Carlton.
High-scoring game expected—bet on Over 171.5 Total Points.
George Hewett likely for 25+ disposals, continuing his hot form.
The game will be played at MCG on Saturday, 11th July, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)

Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL Round 18 Tips

Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 18 2026 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn has had Carlton's measure over the past two seasons and looks well placed to continue that trend by covering the 12.5-point handicap at the MCG. With both midfields in outstanding form, expect plenty of contested football, but the Hawks' greater scoring power should prove the difference.

Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 18 2026 - Expert Prediction
Key Stats
Head to Head
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & Team News
Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s

Carlton enters the clash on a seven-game winning streak after edging Richmond, while Hawthorn is looking to respond following last week's 35-point loss to Melbourne. Despite the defeat, the Hawks remain one of the AFL's elite teams and have won their past three meetings against the Blues by 24, 20 and 74 points. That recent dominance makes the Hawks the side to trust in another important finals-shaping contest.

The total also appeals. Hawthorn's last three matches have all comfortably cleared the game total, with the Hawks averaging 97.8 points across their past five games. Carlton's midfield has driven its winning streak, and if the Blues can contribute their share of scoring, this shapes as another game capable of reaching the over.

George Hewett has become one of the competition's most consistent midfielders. The Carlton ball magnet has recorded at least 25 disposals in each of his past four matches and continues to be the Blues' primary inside ball winner. Against a Hawthorn midfield featuring Jai Newcombe and Will Day, expect Hewett to again spend the night around the contest and comfortably clear the 25-disposal mark.

Key Stats

Hawthorn has won the last three meetings against Carlton by 24, 20 and 74 points.
Hawthorn has covered the line in each of those three victories.
Hawthorn's last three matches have all gone over the game total.
George Hewett has recorded 25+ disposals in each of his past four matches.

Head to Head

Hawthorn has completely flipped this rivalry over the past two seasons. After Carlton's convincing win in 2023, the Hawks have responded with three straight victories, including dominant wins by 74, 20 and 24 points. Their ball movement and ability to generate repeat inside 50s has consistently caused problems for the Blues.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis

Carlton arrives full of confidence after winning seven consecutive matches to climb back into finals contention. The Blues are averaging 87.8 points while conceding only 70.4 across their past five games, with the midfield leading the resurgence.

George Hewett, Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh continue to form one of the competition's toughest on-ball groups. Hewett was outstanding again against Richmond with 26 disposals, nine tackles and two goals, while Jagga Smith continues to emerge as another important midfield contributor.

The Blues have found ways to win close games throughout the streak, although they have also relied on late defensive stands against both Richmond and Geelong. Against a Hawthorn side that generates plenty of forward entries, Carlton's defence will face one of its biggest tests in weeks.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis

Hawthorn remains firmly in the top four despite last week's disappointing loss to Melbourne. The Hawks recovered from a disastrous first half to kick 12 unanswered goals, highlighting the attacking firepower that still makes them one of the AFL's most dangerous teams.

They are averaging 97.8 points across their past five matches and continue to create one of the highest inside 50 counts in the competition. Jai Newcombe, Will Day and Josh Ward provide plenty of midfield depth, while Mabior Chol's five-goal performance against Melbourne demonstrated how dangerous the Hawks remain inside 50.

Although the defensive effort against Melbourne was well below their usual standard, Hawthorn's overall body of work this season remains among the competition's best.

Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & Team News

Carlton Blues

Harry Dean returns to bolster the Blues' defence after Lewis Young was ruled out through injury. Michael Voss otherwise sticks with the side that has built strong momentum over recent weeks.

Hawthorn Hawks

Jarman Impey and Karl Amon return to provide valuable experience, while Ollie Greeves will make his AFL debut. The Hawks lose Jack Dalton through injury, with Bodie Ryan and Flynn Perez omitted ahead of one of the biggest games of the weekend.

Carlton	POS	Hawthorn
O. Florent, W. Derksen, N. Haynes	B	J. Sicily, T. Barrass, B. Hardwick
N. Newman, H. Dean, B. Wilson	HB	J. Impey, N. Mraz, B. Macdonald
A. Cerra, S. Walsh, O. Hollands	C	M. D'Ambrosio, W. Day, J. Ginnivan
W. Hayward, M. McGovern, B. Ainsworth	HF	D. Moore, M. Chol, O. Greeves
B. Kemp, H. McKay, T. Byrne	F	M. Hill, M. Lewis, J. Gunston
M. Pittonet, P. Cripps, J. Smith	FOLL	L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Mackenzie
L. Cowan, M. Cottrell, G. Hewett, J. Ison, F. Evans	I/C	H. Morrison, W. McCabe, J. Ward, C. Macdonald, K. Amon

Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL 2026 Round 18?

You can watch the Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL 2026 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL 2026 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL 2026 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton site.

Verdict

Carlton Blues v Hawthorn Hawks

Hawthorn -12.5, Over 171.5 Total Points, George Hewett 25+ Disposals.

Hawthorn -12.5

Handicap/Line

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