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AFL Round 18 Tips 2026: Jesse's Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Tue 07 Jul 2026 10:17

Jesse Mclure 4 hours ago

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Jesse tips Sydney to edge Fremantle in a potential finals preview.
Brisbane, Adelaide & Melbourne forecast for commanding wins.
Several finals hopefuls face must-win, high-stakes clashes.

Jesse from True Footy's Just the Tips

AFL Round 18 Tips 2026: Jesse's Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Round 18 could prove to be one of the defining weekends of the AFL season.

AFL Round 18 Tips 2026: Jesse's Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Fremantle vs Sydney Prediction
Collingwood vs North Melbourne Prediction
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide Prediction
GWS Giants vs Geelong Prediction
Carlton vs Hawthorn Prediction
Adelaide vs Gold Coast Prediction
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Prediction
Melbourne vs Richmond Prediction
Brisbane vs Essendon Prediction

The race for the top four is tightening, the battle for the final wildcard spots is heating up, and several clubs are entering must-win territory if they want to feature in September. A blockbuster between the top two headlines the round, while a host of finals contenders face genuine danger games.

Here are Jesse's tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 18 game, using the ladder predictor at truefooty.com.au.

Fremantle vs Sydney Prediction

The game of the round sees first take on second in what could easily be a Grand Final preview.

Fremantle have set the benchmark all season despite last week's surprise loss to GWS, while Sydney bounced back impressively against the Western Bulldogs. Caleb Serong and Shai Bolton continue to drive the Dockers, while Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden remain the heartbeat of the Swans.

The Dockers look slightly vulnerable after a five-day break and Sydney have won their past two trips to Optus Stadium, making this far tighter than the ladder suggests.

Jesse's Tip: Sydney Swans by 2 points

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Collingwood vs North Melbourne Prediction

This is a massive opportunity for North Melbourne to prove they belong in the finals conversation.

The Kangaroos have banked wins against lower-ranked opposition but now face a genuine contender. Luke Davies-Uniacke continues to lead North's midfield, while Collingwood have quietly gone about their business with Nick Daicos once again driving one of the league's strongest defensive systems.

North are capable of causing the upset, but Collingwood's experience should prevail.

Jesse's Tip: Collingwood by 7 points

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St Kilda vs Port Adelaide Prediction

Both clubs remain firmly in the finals race, making this one of the biggest eight-point games of the weekend.

St Kilda made light work of Essendon last week, while Port Adelaide continue to gather momentum after their Showdown victory and win over North Melbourne. Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis have been outstanding through the middle, but Marvel Stadium gives the Saints a slight edge.

Jesse's Tip: St Kilda by 18 points

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GWS Giants vs Geelong Prediction

Geelong's season is approaching must-win territory if the Cats are to force their way back into the top four.

The Giants continue to be the competition's biggest wildcard, capable of beating the best before producing disappointing performances the following week. Even with their injury concerns, GWS remain a dangerous side at ENGIE Stadium and traditionally match up well against Geelong.

The Cats rarely let high-pressure games slip, and they should find a way to keep their top-four hopes alive.

Jesse's Tip: Geelong by 5 points

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Carlton vs Hawthorn Prediction

Carlton's remarkable resurgence faces its biggest test yet.

Since Josh Fraser took over, the Blues have rediscovered their defensive structure and transition game, with Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh leading the charge. Hawthorn, meanwhile, are coming off a disappointing loss to Melbourne and can ill afford another slip if they want to remain in the top four.

This shapes as one of the closest contests of the round.

Jesse's Tip: Hawthorn by 6 points

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Adelaide vs Gold Coast Prediction

Adelaide haven't looked quite as sharp over the past fortnight, but they still possess one of the competition's most dangerous attacks.

The Suns' season continues to unravel despite the midfield class of Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson. Gold Coast have struggled badly away from home and face another difficult assignment at Adelaide Oval.

The Crows should respond emphatically.

Jesse's Tip: Adelaide Crows by 64 points

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Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Prediction

The Bulldogs haven't been at their explosive best this season, but they remain well equipped to handle lower-ranked opposition.

Marcus Bontempelli continues to carry the midfield, while West Coast have shown encouraging signs despite a disappointing loss to Adelaide. The Eagles' improved effort should keep them competitive for periods, but the Bulldogs still have too much class.

Jesse's Tip: Western Bulldogs by 24 points

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Melbourne vs Richmond Prediction

Melbourne reminded everyone of their quality with an outstanding performance against Hawthorn.

Max Gawn controlled the contest, while Kozzy Pickett and the Demons' pressure game were back to their best. Richmond continue to compete hard despite their injury list, but they simply don't have the depth to trouble Melbourne over four quarters.

This could get ugly.

Jesse's Tip: Melbourne Demons by 60 points

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Brisbane vs Essendon Prediction

Brisbane have surged back into premiership calculations after consecutive wins over Sydney and Geelong.

Lachie Neale has returned to his best, while the Lions' contested game looks far stronger than it did a month ago. Essendon continue to battle through injuries and are focused on developing their young talent rather than chasing late-season wins.

Brisbane should dominate from start to finish.

Jesse's Tip: Brisbane Lions by 91 points