2026 Italian Open

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Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon in form slump ahead of Rome opener

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 08 May 2026 00:37

Andrew Hendrie 08 May 2026

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Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi predictions for Friday's ATP Rome R2 match
De Minaur in poor form with three defeats in last four matches
Arnaldi on six-match winning streak & equipped with three previous top 10 scalps on clay
The match is scheduled to start at 7.00pm AEST on Friday May 8

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Alex de Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Alex de Minaur has a tough assignment in his Rome Masters opener when he comes up against local hope Matteo Arnaldi in the second round on Friday.

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
De Minaur vs Arnaldi Stats & Trends
De Minaur vs Arnaldi Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
Matteo Arnaldi Form Analysis
De Minaur vs Arnaldi Live Stream

De Minaur is currently in the midst of one of his most challenging periods over the last few years, coming into this clash having won just four of his last 10 matches. The Aussie has already crashed out at the first hurdle in two of the four Masters 1000 events this year and he will have his hands full with a resurgent Arnaldi here.

Arnaldi was swiftly heading towards the top 30 and beyond two years ago before a chronic foot injury surfaced, leaving the Italian battling to stay fit and ultimately dropping out of the top 100. Arnaldi is just starting to recover and work his way back on tour, putting together a superb week at the strong Cagliari Challenger last week as he conquered Hubert Hurkacz for the title.

After extending his winning streak to six matches by beating Jaume Munar in his Rome Masters opener, Arnaldi is confident and playing his best tennis in years - but will it be enough to outlast de Minaur?

It might be, but Arnaldi was smoked by the Demon in their only previous meeting. Clay and home court advantage give the Italian a much stronger chance, but I'd rather take him with a +3.5 start in a match that should go Over 21.5 total games.

De Minaur vs Arnaldi Stats & Trends

De Minaur has lost three of his last four matches
De Minaur has lost six of his last 10 matches vs players ranked below him
De Minaur has seen Over 21.5 games in five of his last seven matches
De Minaur is 2-2 in Masters 1000 opening matches in 2026
Arnaldi is on a six-match winning streak
Arnaldi has seen Over 21.5 games in six of his last eight matches
Arnaldi has a 3-5 record vs top 10 players on clay

De Minaur vs Arnaldi Head To Head

De Minaur leads 1-0, crushing Arnaldi in straight sets at the 2024 Australian Open.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2024	Alex de Minaur	Australian Open	Round of 64	Outdoor Hard	6–3, 6–0, 6–3

Alex de Minaur Form Analysis

2026 Record: 15-8
ATP Rome Record: 6-7
Current Ranking: No. 8
Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)

De Minaur remains inside the top 10, but it's been a tough last few months for the Aussie as he battles to regain his best form.

After making the Australian Open quarter-finals and winning the ATP 500 title in Rotterdam, de Minaur has won just four of his last 10 matches.

Usually so prolific with beating those ranked below him, de Minaur has suffered uncharacteristic defeats to the likes of Patrick Kypson, Cameron Norrie, Hamad Medjedovic and Rafael Jodar in that period.

De Minaur was absolutely demolished by rising teenager Jodar in his Madrid opener, winning just four games in a 6-3 6-1 rout.

The Aussie has a negative 6-7 record in Rome, with his best two results being R16 finishes over the last two years.

Matteo Arnaldi Form Analysis

2026 Record: 1-5
ATP Rome Record: 3-4
Current Ranking: No. 106
Career-High Ranking: No. 30 (2024)

Arnaldi was putting together a steady rise a couple of years ago, breaking into the top 30 and looking like a chance of continuing his progress up the rankings.

However, the Italian was struck down by a long-term foot injury, which he described as the toughest six months of his career.

Struggling to train and maintain fitness, Arnaldi saw his ranking plummet well outside the top 100 as he arrived in Rome with a 0-5 record at tour-level.

But a drop down to Challenger level paid huge dividends last week in Cagliari, with Arnaldi suddenly rediscovering his best tennis, beating the likes of Nuno Borges and Hubert Hurkacz to win the 175 title.

The 25-year-old made it six wins on the bounce by edging out Jaume Munar 6-3 3-6 6-3 in his Rome opener to set up this showdown with de Minaur. Arnaldi will be aiming for a fourth top 10 scalp on clay after previous wins over Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev.

De Minaur vs Arnaldi Live Stream

Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi live tennis from Rome.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Rome with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Alex De Minaur v Matteo Arnaldi

Arnaldi is back in good form and de Minaur is struggling - backing Over 21.5 games, with the Italian covering in front of a home crowd.

Arnaldi +3.5

Games Line

$2.00 - 2 Units

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