Home
NFL

NFL Week 3 Best Bets - Numbers Don't Lie, and Right Now They're Screaming

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Thu 24 Sep 2026 20:54

Ryan Tucker 1 hour ago

Share this article

Cincinnati Bengals a strong pick vs. Pittsburgh due to dominant defense.
Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks expected to exploit clear mismatches.
DeVonta Smith projected for a big receiving game vs. Chicago.

NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Numbers Don't Lie, and Right Now They're Screaming

Three weeks in and the separation is already brutal. Some offences are historically bad. Some defences are historically good. The numbers below tell you exactly where to put your money.

NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Numbers Don't Lie, and Right Now They're Screaming
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Lock of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

Pittsburgh's offence isn't in a slump, it's in a crisis. Two games, 2-for-12 on third down, 3.5 yards per play, one red zone trip, and three total points against New England in Week 2. That's not a rough patch. That's historically dysfunctional, and Aaron Rodgers is posting 4.8 yards per attempt with zero touchdowns to go with it. DK Metcalf has 27 yards on nine targets across two weeks. The weapons aren't working and the protection isn't holding, right guard Spencer Anderson is running a 15% pressure rate and Rodgers absorbed four sacks against the Patriots.

Now Cincinnati's defence walks in. Back-to-back four-sack games at a 12% blitz rate, that's a 40%-plus pressure rate generated almost entirely from straight rushes. They held Houston to three points in Week 2, haven't allowed an opponent beyond five yards per play, and have shut down all four red zone visits they've faced this season. Pittsburgh's offence has managed one red zone trip in two games. This is a mismatch that doesn't require any guesswork.

Cincinnati's defence: 4 sacks in each of its first two games, sub-5 yds/play allowed, opponents 4-for-17 on third down
Pittsburgh: 3.5 yds/play, 2-for-12 on third down, 3 points scored in Week 2, worse than Cleveland's league-last output from all of 2025

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings -1.5

Kyler Murray is back. That alone changes the equation because Carson Wentz was grinding out 143 yards and going 3-for-13 on third down in Week 2 without him. But the more compelling number here isn't Murray's return, it's what Brian Flores is doing to opposing offences. He blitzed on 78% of snaps in Week 1, 79% in Week 2, and generated four sacks plus 50%-plus pressure against Chicago. He held that Chicago offence to just three points.

Tampa Bay is 0-2 with 39 combined points, went 1-for-4 in the red zone last week, and Mayfield didn't crack 190 yards against Cleveland. There's nothing in the recent film suggesting the Buccaneers have the offensive firepower to trade blows with a now-healthier Vikings team and a defence that's been this suffocating. The Flores blitz is going to eat Mayfield alive, and Murray's presence makes Minnesota's offence legitimately dangerous on the other side of the ball.

Minnesota's defence held Chicago to 3 points, 5-for-15 on third down, 0-for-3 in the red zone
Tampa Bay: 20 and 19 points scored in Weeks 1 and 2, 1-for-4 red zone Week 2, Mayfield under 190 yards vs. Cleveland

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders

Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks -7.5

Drew Lock has been the most efficient passer in football over two weeks. A 139 passer rating, 9.0 yards per attempt, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Arizona in Week 2. Washington's secondary just surrendered 37 points and 279 yards with four touchdowns to Dak Prescott, who posted a 143 rating of his own. The Commanders are also without Jayden Daniels again with Marcus Mariota stepping in as the starter, working off limited preparation.

Jackson Smith-Njigba has 155-plus yards in back-to-back games and every single one of Lock's touchdown throws has gone his way. Washington gave up 153 yards and two scores to CeeDee Lamb last week. This is a Seattle receiving threat that's been red-hot running directly into a secondary with no answers. And the Seahawks' defence has held opponents to 10 and seven points this season, limiting Arizona to 151 total yards and 3.2 yards per play. Washington's offence stepping up to replace that is a big ask of Mariota.

Drew Lock: 139 passer rating, 9.0 YPA, 3 TDs/0 INTs in Week 2; JSN 155+ yards in back-to-back games
Washington's defence: surrendered 37 points, 7-of-11 third-down conversions, 4 TDs to Prescott in Week 2

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Best Bet: DeVonta Smith over 72.5 receiving yards

Chicago's QB situation is in freefall. Caleb Williams pulled his hamstring late in Week 2, Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol, and if he doesn't clear it's Case Keenum, whose last NFL start was in 2023. Whatever's happening at quarterback, the Bears' pass defence is a separate concern entirely. Jaylon Johnson allowed 127 yards in Week 1 and another 41-plus with a 100-plus passer rating in Week 2. He now draws DeVonta Smith, who has gone 53 yards to 117 yards with a touchdown over his first two weeks and led Philadelphia in targets in both games.

Smith is on an upward trajectory. The corner across from him has been consistently beatable. Chicago's defence is playing behind a dysfunctional offence that can't sustain drives and keep the ball away from Hurts and company. The volume is coming Smith's way.

Chicago CB Jaylon Johnson: 127 yards allowed Week 1, 41 yards + 100-plus passer rating allowed Week 2
Smith: 53 and 117 yards with a TD, led Eagles in targets in both weeks; Bears QB situation potentially forces Keenum into the lineup

Lock of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers

Everything about this game points one direction. Pittsburgh's offence has no rhythm, no red zone presence, no reliable pass protection, and a receiving corps that's been invisible. Cincinnati's defence is generating elite pressure without committing to the blitz and has been suffocating inside the 20. There's no version of Pittsburgh's current offence that puts up enough points to make this close against a Cincinnati unit playing like this. The numbers don't offer a counterargument. Neither does the film.

Verdict

NFL 26/27 Week 3

Top picks for week 3 of the NFL

Cincinatti -3.5

Line

$1.91 - 2 Units

Crownbet is built for the Big Moments

use referral code BETS

The CrownBet referral code is BETS. 18+. T&Cs apply. Chances are you're about to lose.

Bet at CrownBet

Minnesota -1.5

Line

$1.90 - 3 Units

Newest Australian Bookie

Referral Code: bets500

The BetRaven referral code is bets500. 18+. T&Cs apply.

Bet at BetRaven

Seattle -7.5

Line

$1.91 - 3 Units

Download the dabble app

with referral code BETSAU

Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

Bet at dabble

DeVonta Smith o 72.5

Receiving Yards

$1.86 - 1 Unit

Same Game & Race Multis

Use affiliate code BETSAU

Exciting new betting app now live. Use code BETSAU on sign-up. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Imagine what you could be buying instead.

Bet at picklebet