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Flemington Betting Tips for November 4, 2025 - Race-By-Race preview for Melbourne Cup Day
Melbourne Cup Day 2025 at Flemington showcases the excitement of horse racing with a ten-race card. From juvenile debutants to seasoned stayers, the event promises thrilling moments. The track, rated a Soft 7, may add unpredictability depending on weather conditions. Key recommendations include Sabaj for a win at 2.70 odds and Surfin' Bird also for a win at 2.50 odds. Fans can look forward to strategic plays with Don Diego De Vega and Aitu as each-way bets. For enthusiasts, this event is an unmissable spectacle of racing skill and strategy.
- Flemington hosts the Melbourne Cup 2025 with a ten-race card
- Track conditions might vary, adding an unpredictable element
- Tuesday's race-by-race preview is detailed below
Expired
The 2025 Melbourne Cup headlines a ten-race program at Flemington on Tuesday. (Getty)
All eyes turn to Flemington for the 2025 Melbourne Cup, with a stacked ten-race card combining blue-blooded juveniles, seasoned stayers and the unmistakable buzz of Cup Day.
- Flemington Tips November 4
- Race 1 - 10:45AM Darley Maribyrnong Plate Tips (1000m)
- Race 2 - 11:20AM MA Services Grand Handicap Tips (2000m)
- Race 3 - 12:00PM TAB Trophy Tips (1800m)
- Race 4 - 12:40PM The Schweppervescence Plate Tips (1000m)
- Race 5 - 1:20PM Australian Heritage Cup Tips (2800m)
- Race 6 - 1:55PM Kirin Ichiban Plate Tips (1800m)
- Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup Tips (3200m)
- Race 8 - 3:50PM Lexus Amanda Elliott Tips (1400m)
- Race 9 - 4:35PM The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes Tips (1400m)
- Race 10 - 5:15PM Channel 9 Trophy Tips (1400m)
The track was rated a Soft 7 on Monday afternoon, and it remains uncertain how conditions will play — a lot depends on how much rain arrives on the day. Flemington’s surface tends to dry quickly, but the forecast adds an extra layer of difficulty for punters trying to gauge the pattern.
We’ve assessed every race on Tuesday's program — from the two-year-olds kicking off the day to the Cup itself — to identify the leading hopes, value plays and key form angles for the 2025 Melbourne Cup Day meeting.
Flemington Tips November 4
Race 1 - 10:45AM Darley Maribyrnong Plate Tips (1000m)
A typically competitive Maribyrnong Plate opens the Cup Day card, and the betting could again prove the best guide. In terms of recent history, both the McEvoy and Hayes stables have trained three winners across the past nine editions of this juvenile feature, underlining their strong influence on the race.
The Hayes team saddle up 4. Carnevale, who heads a competitive early market. The colt is the first foal out of Fiesta, a multiple Group-winning juvenile, and he adds the services of Mark Zahra, who rode four winners on Victoria Derby Day. That combination commands respect.
9. Daily Reward also profiles as a major player, being by last season’s leading sire Zoustar and out of Karuta Queen, a Magic Millions winner. The filly caught the eye late in her first jump-out and looked to have plenty in hand.
11. Luna Vega looks a typical jump-and-run juvenile. The filly has shown early speed leading both heats and may enjoy a wide draw that lets her find the outside lanes at her own leisure.
12. Saluki, from the McEvoy yard, races in the legendary Makybe Diva colours — a name synonymous with Melbourne Cup history. She found the line strongly in her sole jump-out and would be a fitting result to salute in the famous silks on Cup Day.
Selections: 4 — 9 — 11 — 12.
Race 2 - 11:20AM MA Services Grand Handicap Tips (2000m)
3. Makdane is a deserving favourite here. The son of Impending has been very consistent over 2025, which includes three victories and five placings from his last eight appearances, and moving onto what could be more rain-affected ground only brings him further into calculations.
He was freshened after a Caulfield victory on August 16 and backed that up with a third at Sandown, before giving two kilos to a progressive winner on October 15 in Zambardo, who completed a four-peat there. He’s also a proven weight carrier, albeit in lower grade.
The progressive horse down in the weights could be 14. Giggenbach, who has won three of her last four attempts, including a double through her past two. The runner-up franked the form from her last success with a victory at Mornington on Sunday, and she carries three kilos less for this assignment.
10. Party Crasher looked a touch plain first-up at Murray Bridge. He was a progressive stayer throughout his first campaign, which culminated with back-to-back victories at 2000m and beyond. The step from 1400m to 2000m second-up won’t be easy.
You couldn't have 8. Jaykayann on current form, but strips fitter for two spring outings and comes into consideration if the track is wet.
Selections: 3 — 14 — 10 — 8.
Race 3 - 12:00PM TAB Trophy Tips (1800m)
One at a big price is the Reece Goodwin-trained 7. Aitu, who was sent out at long odds in a hot Pakenham maiden on debut in May and wasn’t far off the mark in what was an encouraging effort. The three-year-old was given time ahead of a Bendigo resumption on October 5, where he was well held but still performed soundly in a strong race.
He backed that up with a brave Pakenham victory on October 17 when covering ground throughout, and the rise in trip now looks suitable third-up. He shapes as a live outsider at good odds.
1. Matahga just did enough first-up at Caulfield but clearly possesses ability. The colt showed good talent through his opening campaign, which culminated with back-to-back victories, including a Listed win on soft ground when stepping up to 1400m at start three. It’s a quick rise in trip but suitable off that resuming effort.
9. Arabian Prince remains a tricky read. The gelding was on a Victoria Derby path but couldn’t secure a run as an emergency and now drops back to 1800m. He brings enough quality to be respected, though whether the reduced trip suits at this stage of the prep is the query.
8. Snitz Sonic ran into a handy type when runner-up on debut before recording a good win at Echuca. The extra furlong should be fine here.
Selections: 7 — 1 — 9 — 8.
Race 4 - 12:40PM The Schweppervescence Plate Tips (1000m)
Despite an inconclusive lead-up trial, which was perhaps a touch plain if anything, 9. Bold Secret remained firm in the market for his return at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Eve. It was only an even effort there, finishing fifth-of-eight, and the tight-turning circuit may not have suited.
The Phillip Stokes-trained galloper created an impression on debut when placing up this Flemington straight over this trip, where only inexperience cost him in an event won by Shining Smile, who completed a fifth straight win there and had previously competed with the very smart Tentyris in February. He looks open to further improvement with a run under the belt.
2. Pallaton hasn’t progressed since a slick debut triumph but could improve back in distance. The gelding isn’t proven beyond 1000m, and his last-start Sydney form through Skyglider reads strongly — that rival having won a hot Canterbury maiden on debut before their clash, then being tested in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes via his latest run.
An interesting runner is 10. Vangogh Bankcheque, who came from off the speed to record a stylish debut victory at Echuca, with the third placegetter from that race scoring by nine lengths at his next start.
13. Choir Point was brave on debut when saluting off solid market support. He stays at 1000m for this metro assignment.
Selections: 9 — 2 — 10 — 13.
Race 5 - 1:20PM Australian Heritage Cup Tips (2800m)
3. Don Diego De Vega showed potential early in Australia with a runner-up finish before a Randwick breakthrough, but the jury was out last season before taking out the Grafton Cup prior to a short break. He has been building quite well through four spring appearances, and the best of those came last Wednesday when recording the fastest last 200m of the Bendigo Cup.
On a meeting that heavily favoured those on the fence, he made good inroads from off the speed and through middle lanes that weren’t advantaged. He looks better placed here in what shapes as a more suitable assignment, although he does rise in the weights.
9. Litzdeel is an honest four-year-old who ended her three-year-old season with a Group 3 victory over 2500m, having gone close at her prior start over 2800m when runner-up in the St Leger at Flemington. She’s been building nicely across three spring runs and appears ready to peak now, well placed down in the weights.
14. Ferago warrants respect if the track turns genuinely wet. He got conditions to suit in the Geelong Cup and could feature again if the rain arrives.
2. Trav is a New Zealand stayer at big odds who hasn’t been suited in two Australian runs. He stays the trip, strips fitter, and could improve.
Selections: 3 — 9 — 14 — 2.
Race 6 - 1:55PM Kirin Ichiban Plate Tips (1800m)
Handy enough race, and heading an open early market is 5. St George, who failed in last year’s Melbourne Cup and was gelded ahead of his October return this year. He was also given some time off with minor feet issues, but his Seymour Cup resumption was a cracker — finishing second, with the first and third from that race since franking the form in the Sale Cup.
The import showed promise early under Ciaron Maher, and his European form stands out, including a runner-up finish to Gregory at Royal Ascot 2023 before placing at Newmarket.
6. Athanatos is very honest and should be at peak fitness now with four runs under the belt. His record suggests he doesn’t win out of turn, but he’s rarely far away, and the recent form lines through Evaporate, Transatlantic, and Leica Lucy read superbly for this.
2. Apulia is a talented entire who won first-up off a long break at Moonee Valley, where class got him home in the VOBIS Gold Star. The rise in trip looks ideal, and it will be interesting to see what he does second-up off a long break.
3. Kingswood performed well when runner-up first-up at Flemington but was a touch plain in the Hill Stakes last time in Sydney — though that’s very strong form through the winner, Lindermann.
Selections: 1 — 2 — 3 — 4.
Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup Tips (3200m)
6. Presage Nocturne produced an excellent Australian debut when finishing fourth in the Caulfield Cup, a run that suggested he was looking for further. The French import, trained by Alessandro Botti, has solid European Group staying form and now steps up to his preferred trip.
He drops 2kg from that effort and has previously carried bigger weights in France, including a win at 3000m. Proven on all surfaces, the grey brings the perfect mix of stamina, consistency, and adaptability for the two-mile test at Flemington.
8. Meydaan was excellent without luck in the Caulfield Cup — back, wide and chasing throughout, yet still found again late for a midfield finish. The son of Frankel now heads to Flemington and steps up in trip; the 3200m is a fresh test, and with James McDonald taking the reins, he gets every chance to produce his best.
1. Al Riffa commands respect despite carrying top weight. The dual Curragh winner, including a dominant Irish St Leger victory, brings elite European staying credentials and is proven at the trip. Joseph O’Brien already has two Melbourne Cups to his name and knows how to peak a stayer on the day.
22. Royal Supremacy appeals at odds. He endured a tough run in the Caulfield Cup but kept closing off late, and his light weight gives him a chance to feature.
15. More Felons is another who shouldn’t be underestimated — better seasoned than last year and improving with each run this prep, he’s capable of sneaking into the finish.
Selections: 6 — 8 — 1 — 22 — 15.
Race 8 - 3:50PM Lexus Amanda Elliott Tips (1400m)
One of the more open races on the program, and it often produces a handy winner. With Magic Time and Schwarz among the last three victors of this race — both now Group 1 winners.
15. Ludlum is prepared by Grahame Begg and caught the eye on debut at Ballarat when finishing second behind Tres Magnifique, who was then unlucky twice in good company, while the third placegetter Wintery won her next start before finishing runner-up at Moonee Valley. The grey atoned with an impressive breakthrough at Seymour, covering ground and pulling clear late for a soft win. Much harder here, but the second and third from that maiden both won their next starts.
1. Hidden Achievement could be an improver at odds. The Chris Waller-trained galloper was safely held in The Run To The Rose but has since won a trial in Sydney. He showed talent through his initial campaign, which culminated in a runner-up finish in the Group 1 J.J. Atkins, and the step to 1400m looks a plus.
7. Ripley was a stylish Sydney winner first-up and wasn’t disgraced when fourth at Caulfield last time. That form looks strong through Tentyris, who came out and dominated the Coolmore Stud Stakes, while Sheza Alibi, winner of The Vanity on Saturday, also ties into that line.
2. Navy Pilot didn’t quite see out the mile in the Caulfield Guineas, and coming back to 1400m suits. He’s already proven over this trip second-up at Sandown.
Selections: 15 — 1 — 7 — 2.
Race 9 - 4:35PM The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes Tips (1400m)
This is a decent rise in class for 15. Surfin’ Bird, stepping from a BM70 to a Set Weights and Penalties Group 3, but she could be the progressive mare among them. The Waterhouse and Bott-trained four-year-old has now won four of five outings, including three from four since a start two miss in July.
The daughter of The Autumn Sun was given a short break after saluting over the Sandown mile on August 20 and couldn’t have been more impressive when resuming at Caulfield on October 15, where she covered ground in a fast-run race yet still powered clear for a dominant 4.25-length win. It takes a smart one to do that, but she now has to back that up and did only debut in June, so isn’t as seasoned as these.
6. Roll On High hasn’t always been the easiest to catch but is very classy when right and could improve third-up. She made late ground in restricted room fresh and, while a touch plain second-up, was unsuited there. The 1400m is her sweet spot, and she’ll strip fitter again for this assignment.
14. Pondalowie produced the fastest closing sectionals of the same Flemington race Roll On High contested and backed that up with another strong chasing performance at Caulfield.
10. Gumdrops is ticking over well and looks suited rising to 1400m third-up, with James McDonald taking the reins.
Selections: 15 — 6 — 14 — 10.
Race 10 - 5:15PM Channel 9 Trophy Tips (1400m)
8. Sabaj showed good ability in Adelaide during his three-year-old season, opening his career with a hat-trick of wins before successive runner-up finishes at stakes level — including a second to Reserve Bank, who went on to win the Group 1 Goodwood two weeks later.
Now under the care of Mick Price and Michael Kent (Jnr), he was well backed first-up in the Silver Eagle at Randwick but had no luck when held up behind a dominant Linebacker, and he should have clearly finished second. He looks the most talented runner here and is well placed dropping back in grade second-up. The only query is that he remains untested on wet ground.
12. Persian Spirit has been going well this campaign and is proven in the conditions. The five-year-old opened his prep with a Flemington straight win and has been competitive twice since. He’s looking for 1400m on the back of his last effort and did score over this trip on heavy ground in April.
19. Boltsaver ran second to Persian Spirit in that same Warrnambool 1400m event and looked to have that race won before being nailed late. He’s had his chances since but could be included at massive odds if it’s testing ground.
3. Ndola is chasing a winning hat-trick to start the campaign. His only loss in the seven-furlong range was a second to a dominant Sepals, a subsequent Group 1 winner and Golden Eagle runner-up.
Selections: 8 — 12 — 19 — 3.
Verdict
Our best & value bets for Melbourne Cup Day are:
Sabaj
To Win
$2.70 - 4 Units
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Surfin' Bird
To Win
$2.50 - 3 Units
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Don Diego De Vega
Each Way
$9.50 - 2 Units
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Aitu
Each Way
$21.00 - 1 Unit
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