Lorenzo Musetti vs Otto Virtanen Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Can Virtanen produce on the big stage?

Musetti has put together a brilliant clay swing so far, finishing runner-up in Monte-Carlo before making the semi-finals in Madrid. Those results have propelled the Italian into the top 10 for the first time, with Musetti now a genuine contender to win the biggest tournaments in the world.

However, how he handles the pressure and expectation of being a top 10 player at his home tournament in Rome will be interesting - especially now he's been drawn against a player who is capable of some electric tennis and has nothing to lose. Virtanen was 0-22 in qualifying for ATP main draws before this event and is a poor 4-13 at all levels in 2025. But, the Finn is immensely talented and is the type of player that lifts when facing elite players on the biggest stage, memorably pushing Tommy Paul to five sets at Wimbledon with minimal experience last year.

The combining factors of increased expectation on Musetti and Virtanen's potential in a 'nothing-to-lose' match in a big stage makes me feel like this match can exceed 19.5 total games, while I'll also have a smaller stake on the Finn to snatch a set.

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Musetti has compiled a 16-6 record on the season, with five of his six defeats coming against top 20 players, so he's cutting out the losses to lower-ranked players.

More importantly, the Italian is finally putting together some consistency on tour, winning nine of his 11 matches on European clay.

The 23-year-old reached his maiden Masters 1000 final in Monte Carlo, where he pushed Carlos Alcaraz in a three-set title match, while he backed it up with a semi-final run in Madrid, going down to Jack Draper.

Musetti defeated Alex de Minaur and Stefanos Tsitsipas twice during those runs.

The Italian has twice made the R16 in Rome, but will now be expected to challenge for the silverware.

Consistency will always be an issue for Virtanen and he enters this contest with a 3-5 record at tour-level for the season.

Virtanen recorded the biggest win of his career in February when he took out Sebastian Korda in Marseille, but he lost his following match to Daniel Altmaier.

The 23-year-old hadn't won back-to-back matches at any level before arriving in Rome, where he finally qualified for an ATP event for the first time in 22 attempts, beating Tristan Boyer and Federico Arnaboldi.

Virtanen then continued his momentum in the main draw, taking care of Hamad Medjedovic in straight sets to earn a crack at Musetti on Centre Court.