2026 Japan Open

This preview has expired.

See all our latest betting tips or suggested betting sites

Thursday 8
Friday 9
Saturday 10
Sunday 11
Monday 12
Tuesday 13
Wednesday 14
Thursday 15
Friday 16
Saturday 17
Sunday 18

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz launches Japan Open title defence

Andrew Hendrie

Editor

Last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026 00:53

Andrew Hendrie 01 Oct 2026

Share this article

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen predictions for Thursday's ATP Tokyo R1
Michelsen in good form & has covered +4.5 start in all three ATP matches vs top 5
Alcaraz defending Japan Open title; just his second competitive event since April
The match is scheduled to start around 5.00pm AEST on Thursday October 1

Expired

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Alex Michelsen is coming off his best result at a Grand Slam and he's pushed top five players in the past, so the American can keep this Japan Open first round showdown with Carlos Alcaraz competitive.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alcaraz vs Michelsen Stats & Trends
Alcaraz vs Michelsen Head To Head
Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis
Alex Michelsen Form Analysis
Alcaraz vs Michelsen Live Stream

Michelsen may have a 0-4 record against top five opponents throughout his short career, but he's covered a +4.5 start in three of them and on current form, this shapes as a great opportunity for the brash young American to make an impact.

The 22-year-old is fresh from making his first Grand Slam quarter-final at the US Open, where he came just short of reaching the semi-final, falling to Frances Tiafoe in a fifth-set tiebreak. Michelsen has covered this line in two previous meetings with Jannick Sinner and I think he can do the same here.

Alcaraz also suffered a quarter-final exit at the US Open, which was his first tournament back since suffering a wrist injury in April.

The Spaniard was in action this past weekend, helping Team Europe win the Laver Cup over Team World - and now he begins his Japan Open title defence after claiming the silverware for the loss of just one set last year.

Alcaraz is 7-0 in his opening matches this year and will probably win this, but I think this is a good chance for Michelsen to potentially catch the Spaniard cold at the start of the tournament. I'm taking the American to cover a +4.5 start and push the match Over 20.5 total games.

Alcaraz vs Michelsen Stats & Trends

Alcaraz is 14-1 vs players ranked 30+ this season
Alcaraz is 7-0 in opening matches this season
Michelsen is 0-4 vs top five players
Michelsen has covered a +4.5 line in all three best-of-three matches vs top five players
Michelsen is 14-4 in his opening matches this season
All three of Michelsen's best-of-three matches vs top five players have seen Over 20.5 games

Alcaraz vs Michelsen Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 27-4
ATP Tokyo Record: 5-0
Current Ranking: No. 3
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

It's obviously been an injury-disrupted year for Alcaraz, who has dropped to No. 3 in the world behind Alexander Zverev after missing four months with a wrist injury.

Alcaraz started the year on fire, winning his first 16 matches - including completing the Career Grand Slam at the Australian Open.

However, the Spaniard missed most of the clay swing and all of the grass swing due to injury, only returning for the US Open last month, where he made the quarter-finals before going down to Ben Shelton.

Alcaraz competed for Team Europe at the Laver Cup, winning both his singles and doubles matches. The 23-year-old won the Japan Open title on debut last year, beating Taylor Fritz in the final.

Alex Michelsen Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 27-18
ATP Tokyo Record: 2-2
Current Ranking: No. 34
Career-High Ranking: No. 30 (2025)

Solid season for Michelsen, who is trying to make that next step in his career and break into the top 30 and beyond.

Michelsen does his best work on hardcourt - he started the year with a semi-final in Brisbane and registered back-to-back R16 runs at Indian Wells and Miami.

After a third round finish at Roland Garros, Michelsen didn't win a match on grass before returning home for the North American hardcourt summer, where he won a total of 17 matches across all levels.

It culminated with a career milestone at the US Open, with Michelsen making his first major quarter-final, eventually falling to countryman Tiafoe in a fifth-set breaker.

Alcaraz vs Michelsen Live Stream

Watch and bet on Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen live tennis from Tokyo.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Tokyo with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Carlos Alcaraz v Alex Michelsen

Michelsen has stayed competitive with all of his ATP meetings with top five opponents and can push Alcaraz in this Tokyo first round clash.

Michelsen +4.5

Games Line

$1.90 - 1 Unit

Download the dabble app

with referral code BETSAU

Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

Bet at dabble

Over 20.5

Total Games

$1.85 - 1 Unit

Same Game & Race Multis

Use affiliate code BETSAU

Exciting new betting app now live. Use code BETSAU on sign-up. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Imagine what you could be buying instead.

Bet at picklebet