ATP Miami Futures Tips & Predictions - Sunshine Double for Sinner; Alcaraz in early danger

But like with my pick for the women's title, I'm going with Sinner to make it back-to-back titles during the Sunshine Swing, while Daniil Medvedev can continue his resurgence with another deep run. Jack Draper could be someone to keep an eye on in the top quarter, featuring Alcaraz and Fonseca...

Note: Odds haven't been released at the time of writing and will be included shortly.

Of course all eyes were drawn to the very top of the draw, with Joao Fonseca needing to beat Fabian Marozsan in order to set up a mouth-watering showdown with Alcaraz in the second round. First of all, we must respect Marozsan - the Hungarian is a huge ball-striker and has registered various Masters 1000 upsets over the last few years, so he would also present a tough assignment for Alcaraz. But I think only Marozsan's family want him to win this match - an Alcaraz vs Fonseca matchup in Miami could possibly produce the best tennis atmosphere for the entire year. And with how Fonseca played Sinner close in two tiebreaks at Indian Wells, there's a pretty decent chance the teenage star could upset Alcaraz, who is coming off his first defeat of the season to Medvedev in the semi-finals.

Whatever the case, I think fading Alcaraz presents value in this top quarter. And former World No. 4 Jack Draper could be the man to force his way through to the semi-finals. Of course Draper has been sidelined for an extended period with an arm injury, but he's back now and looked strong in the desert, knocking out Novak Djokovic in a gruelling three-setter before having to back up less than 24 hours later and going down to Medvedev. Draper has a very manageable draw to the quarter-finals - the highest seed, Taylor Fritz, has been battling injury all year and is well below his best - so if he maintains his form from the desert, he's a chance here.

I think we could be in for a surprise semi-finalist in this second quarter. The top eight seeds - Lorenzo Musetti and Alex de Minaur - are both down on confidence and form heading into Miami. Musetti hasn't got back to his best since being forced to retire at the Australian Open, while de Minaur's form has dipped since winning Rotterdam, losing early to Patrick Kypson in Acapulco and Cameron Norrie in Indian Wells. Not really much value on backing either in Miami.

Which makes a couple of other names appeal - Tommy Paul and Arthur Fils. I backed Fils at $15 to make the semi-finals in Indian Wells and he got close, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime before going down to Alexander Zverev in the quarters. The Frenchman is looking good in his comeback, but De Minaur is a rough matchup and while it wouldn't be overly surprising if he won, backing that up with two more wins to make the semi-finals could be problematic. Which is why I'll put my faith in Paul - although he admittedly hasn't been beyond the R16 here.

But the American's draw is great. Zhang or Mannarino in the second round shouldn't pose much of a problem, while Flavio Cobolli has been pretty terrible save for Acapulco all year. Musetti, as mentioned, is looking dodgy after returning from injury, so a quarter-final looks a very real possibility. Valentin Vacherot and Alexander Bublik are the other seeds in this section, but Paul is more than capable of beating everyone in this section at his best - it took an on-fire Alcaraz to stop him at the AO and Fonseca in blistering form at Indian Wells, so this could be his time.

It was a rough couple of years for Medvedev, but the enigmatic Russian has rediscovered his best tennis and I'll be backing him to continue his resurgent form and make the semi-finals here. Not going to go into too much detail here - Ben Shelton was suffering from illness in Indian Wells and I don't like his chances in Miami, while Medvedev has a 14-8 H2H advantage over Alexander Zverev, including winning five of the last six meetings. Medvedev should get close to a week's rest after beating Alcaraz and pushing Sinner to a pair of tiebreaks at Indian Wells - and if he can maintain and maybe slightly improve on that level, he should get another chance at the 'Big 2' in Miami.

Sinner picked up his first title for 2026 in Indian Wells and obviously it helped that he didn't need to face his rival Alcaraz in the final, but that triumph could be the confidence-boost he needs to go on another winning streak. Again, not really much to analyse in this fourth quarter - I can't see anyone stopping Sinner make the final. It's a weak section - Felix Auger-Aliassime and defending champion Jakub Mensik are the two other highest seeds, but neither are in good form at the moment, although Mensik did beat Sinner in Doha. Highly unlikely lightning strikes twice if that matchup did eventuate in Miami.

Sinner probably makes the semi-finals final without dropping a set and if Alcaraz is knocked out by someone else in the much stronger top half of the draw, then he will obviously be the overwhelming favourite. A potential rematch with Medvedev in the semi-finals would be an intriguing watch, but you've got to back the World No. 2 - he's made the final in three of his last four appearances in Miami.