Alexander Zverev vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Shaky Zverev begins Rome title defence

Zverev has produced some of his best tennis in Rome throughout his career, registering a 24-6 record at the tournament, winning two titles (including last year) and finishing runner-up on another occasion. However, the German has been in poor form (relatively speaking) since losing another Grand Slam final at the Australian Open in January, put together an average 12-8 record since January. Zverev is yet to go beyond the R16 at Masters 1000 level and he's lost all three of his previous meetings with Argentines on clay in 2025.

Carabelli has won 16 of his last 23 matches on clay at all levels and is becoming increasingly accustomed to competing at this level, reaching the Miami third round on hardcourt earlier this season. Zverev has given no indication that he's about to recapture his best tennis and with the added pressure of defending his title and 1000 ranking points, Carabelli could present him some problems on Friday night in Rome.

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Zverev has registered a 21-8 record on the season to date, but he's just 12-8 since losing the Australian Open final to Jannik Sinner in January.

The German had a fantastic opportunity to secure the No. 1 ranking with Sinner missing the last few months due to suspension, but he couldn't take advantage, repeatedly losing early and to lower-ranked opponents.

Yet to go past the R16 at Masters 1000 level this season, all of Zverev's defeats in such matches have been against players outside the top 10.

Even winning his first title of 2025 in Munich failed to propel Zverev on to greater things, with the 28-year-old falling in straight sets to Francisco Cerundolo in the Madrid R16 last week.

It's been a career-best season for Carabelli - he's gone 9-8 at tour-level, but also performed strongly at Challenger level to rise to a peak ranking of No. 59.

Carabelli made two clay semi-finals in Rio de Janeiro and Santiago during the Golden Swing and backed it up with a solid third round showing in Miami in his Masters 1000 debut.

The Argentine qualified for the Monte Carlo Masters, but lost to Alexandre Muller in the opening round, while he was also unable to clear the first hurdle in Madrid, going down to Chris O'Connell.

However, Carabelli got back to winning ways in his Rome debut, taking out former top 10 player Pablo Carreno Busta in three sets in the opening round.