2025 NRL State of Origin Series

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2025 State of Origin Game 3 First and Anytime Tryscorer Tips - Who will cross for a try in Origin Game 3?

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Mon 07 Jul 2025 11:17

Ryan Tucker 07 Jul 2025

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State of Origin Game 3 takes place on Wednesday, July 9th
NSW scored the first try in 2 of three games in 2024 as well as Games 1 & 2 of 2025.
Who will get the first try in Origin 3?

Jez gives you a few Queenslanders to throw into the repertoire.

2025 State of Origin Game 3 First and Anytime Tryscorer Tips

We nailed the First Tryscorer pick in Game 1 of the 2025 State of Origin series with Zac Lomax crossing for NSW in the 24th minute. In Game 2 it was Brian To’o with the first of his 3 tries in the 7th minute of action.

2025 State of Origin Game 3 First and Anytime Tryscorer Tips
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD)
Gehamat Shibasaki (QLD)
Brian To’o (NSW)
Bonus Anytime Tryscorer Picks

Now with Game 3 just around the corner we have pulled apart the team lists and game play options to deliver the best value picks for First & Anytime Tryscorers.

Not only is it important to know the trends around who scores tries at Origin level, it is important to know how the game is expected to play out based on tactics, strengths and weaknesses, and much more. We have done the hard work for you, so sit back and relax while we deliver the goods!

In this article we pick out our favourite First Tryscorer and Anytime Tryscorer tips and where you can find the best value across all bookies in Australia.

In the 26 games played in the last 8 years, it is a 13-all deadlock between QLD and NSW for first tryscorers.
The centres (9) and wingers (9) have naturally dominated the first try scoring category, second-rowers have scored on 4 occasions with no other position scoring first more than once.
QLD have scored first in 3 of the last 5 Game 3’s.

Based on these trends and their current try scoring form here are our top 3 picks for the first try scorer in State of Origin Game 3.

Check out our Game 3 Match Predictions and Man of the Match picks.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD)

Hamiso Tabuai-FidowFirst Try Scorer$11.00

18+. T&Cs apply

The first player in Origin history to start at 3 different positions across the 3 game series. Hammer can do it all. His tryscoring record at Origin level is also one of the best in the history of the series showing he can get it done against the best opponents.

Look for the Hammer to play his usual support role through the middle, backing up a break to cross for the first try of the game.

With QLD having a dominant First Tryscorer record over the past 5 years in Game 3’s - the Hammer is the best option to cross first.

Gehamat Shibasaki (QLD)

Gehamat ShibasakiFirst Try Scorer$23.00

18+. T&Cs apply

Shibasaki will make his Origin debut after starting the season on the outside looking in for his Broncos club. He leads the NRL in support plays and is 2nd on the tryscorers list in 2025.

His ability to barge over from close range and also hit a hole on the edge provides great value in a position that is equal highest for First Tries in Origin over the past decade.

Brian To’o (NSW)

Brian To'oFirst Try Scorer$7.00

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The nuggety Blues winger scored 3 tries in Game 2 and 1 try in Game 1. He is able to finish backline plays in ways many would deem impossible. Nothing holds this guy back, not injury, form or media questioning his ability. He is always in with a shot for a try in the Origin Arena.

With the Blues having most of their tryscoring success this series through their outside backs, look for To’o once again to be on the finishing end of a smooth backline play.

Bonus Anytime Tryscorer Picks

Hudson Young - Hudson Young has 10 tries in 14 matches this season for Canberra but has yet to cross for a try in his 5 Origin appearances. If this game becomes high scoring, he is definitely up there with a chance.

Zac Lomax - 6 of the Blues 9 tries this series have come from Wingers, Lomax has 2 and To’o has 4. There is not doubt they will continue to pepper the wings until they come up dry. Both Lomax and To’o are exceptional finishers and are strong enough to barge over given just an extra millimeter of room.

Xavier Coates - The only QLD player to score in Game 1 and an aerial specialist. If the Maroons are struggling to break through the line you can guarantee they will at least try to pepper the wing where they have a clear advantage. With $2.50 odds it is a fair shout value wise.

Verdict

NSW v QLD State of Origin Game 3

To'o and/or Lomax needs to be in the mix but a couple of Queenslanders in debutant Gehamat Shibasaki and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow are also worth a look

Brian To'o

First Tryscorer

$7.00 - 1 Unit

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Gehamat Shibasaki

First Tryscorer

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Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

First Tryscorer

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