State of Origin 2025 Predictions, Series Preview & Schedule - Who will win the 2025 State of Origin Series?

The Blues now have a chance to clinch the series in Perth in Game 2.

Game 2 will be played on Wednesday 18th June at Optus Stadium in Perth. WA has hosted 2 Origin games in recent years with NSW being successful in both games and by significant margins. They are tipped to make it three in a row at the ground and secure the series, retaining the Origin shield.

NSW head into the 2025 Origin series as defending champions. Last year they snapped a 2 year streak that QLD had built and they did it in a dominant fashion. After being blown off the park in Game 1 following the send off of Joseph Suaalii they regathered to beat QLD by a margin in Game 2 and showed tenacity coming from 0-2 down at half time in Game 3 at Suncorp to take the series.

Michael Maguire was a breath of fresh air into the New South Wales team that had struggled for years for consistency both on the field and through the selection process. A host of new names entered the Origin arena and it paid dividends for the Blues. Now with Laurie Daley back at the helm NSW will be gunning for their first back to back series win since 2018/19 and only their second since the early 2000’s with a coach that has a losing record at Origin level.

Their selection process has stuck though with the officials opting to go with much of the same troop that got the job done in 2024 despite concerns around current form. Nathan Cleary will make a long awaited return to State of Origin, not having played since game 1 of 2023 with injuries hampering his opportunities and is partnered by Mitch Moses who led the team to victory last year.

For QLD Kalyn Ponga came off the bench in Game 3 of 2024 after missing a couple years through injury and form. He now is the starting fullback with Reece Walsh out injured. Robert Toia will make his debut in the centres as one of the hottest players currently in that position in the NRL. 

Game 1: QLD 6 - NSW 18

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues

Where: Suncorp Stadium Brisbane 

Game 2

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues 

Where: Optus Stadium Perth
When: Wednesday, June 18th - 8:05pm AEST

Game 3

New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons 
Where: Accor Stadium Sydney
When: Wednesday, July 9th - 8:05pm AEST

Where this series will be won and lost will be the defensive capabilities of the outside backs. NSW have one of the most formiddable backlines in recent Origin history while QLD’s back 5 (apart from Toia) have constantly been found out defensively for their club this year.

There is a distinct difference in the makeup of the two forward packs with NSW being a bit bigger and heavier and QLD opting for the more mobile pack. Possession and territory will be key for the Maroons if they are to avoid fatigue early in games while the Blues will surely look to apply pressure through their running and strong defence from the outset.

The match up of the bench units is clearly in the Blues favour in terms of plug and play components and overall toughness but they are lacking an out and out cover if an outside back was to go down with injury.

It is hard to separate the coaches, Daley was at the helm through a rough time in general for NSW and will now get his chance to prove that he is able to motivate and create a winning game plan for a team full of stars and momentum. Billy Slater loves being the underdog and there is no doubt he has an ace up his sleeve just in case they end up behind the 8-ball.

Angus Crichton won the Wally Lewis Medal for Player of the Series in 2024 and is currently an outsider at $29 to take the award in back to back series. 

Nathan Cleary $5.00 is the favourite followed by Mitch Moses $7.50 which backs up the motive that NSW is the favourite to take out the series. Cam Munster $10 is the first Queenslander on the list as 3rd favourite.

The bets.com.au top picks for Wally Lewis Medal in 2025 are Stephen Crichton from NSW and Daly Cherry-Evans from QLD.

Stephen Crichton is one of the most dynamic players on the field over both teams, his ability to break the line, move the ball and defend on an island are elite. With the narrative that the series will be won by NSW off the back of their superior backline, Crichton is the perfect option to be the leader in that category and the value is tremendous!

Daly Cherry-Evans will need to put on a masterclass if QLD are to have any chance of winning this series. He will need to steer his team around the park with perfection and use his experience and initiative to turn the tables when things get hot. DCE's kicking game will be important if QLD are losing the territory battle and it is likely he will be the one to set up his teammates for scoring opportunities.

A Queenslander has won the Wally Lewis Medal in 15 of 21 series since the honour was awarded.

A forward has won the honours in 3 straight series (Pat Carrigan in 2022, Reuben Cotter in 2023, Crichton in 2024).

It is extremely unlikely that anyone bar a winger snags the honours of most tries in the 2025 State of Origin Series. 

Valentine Holmes is currently the 3rd leading tryscorer in Origin history having scored 13 tries in 19 appearances for QLD. His teammate Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is in hot pursuit having crossed 9 times in 7 matches played for a average of 1.29 per game.

With NSW tipped to win the series, the top tryscorer is likely to come from their playing ranks and given the ability of Zac Lomax to find the line he is our top pick in this category. Lomax has scored 3 tries in 3 origin appearances and has scored 16 tries in 27 NRL appearances dating back to the start of the 2024 season.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow's strike rate so far in Origin it is impossible to discount him from being the top tryscorer in this series, he is our top pick from the Maroons and could still be the leading tryscorer if points are concentrated down that edge.