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State of Origin Game 1 Tips and Predictions QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues - Blues set to take series lead in QLD
- QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues expert tips & predictions for Wednesday’s State of Origin Game 1
- Kick off is at 8:05 PM (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium
- NSW Blues expected to win Game 1 against QLD Maroons, potential sweep on the cards.
- NSW's strong backline is key, with lower missed tackle rates compared to QLD.
- NSW predicted to score first; Zac Lomax is a favored tryscorer.
State of Origin Game 1 Tips and Predictions QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues
QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues, State of Origin Game 1 2025 - Expert Tips & Prediction
The NSW Blues will kick off Origin 2025 with a win in enemy territory setting up a potential sweep of the QLD Maroons in the series.
- QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues, State of Origin Game 1 2025 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- QLD Maroons Form Analysis
- QLD Maroons Team News
- QLD Maroons Team List
- NSW Blues Form Analysis
- NSW Blues Team News
- NSW Blues Team List
- QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2025 State of Origin Game 1 FAQ’s
Check out the Series Preview from the bets.com.au team as well as First Tryscorer and Man of the Match predictions.
NSW have opted to pick and stick with their team despite a number of their backline players coming in underdone. The philosophy has served QLD well for a number of years and is something many fans and experts have been longing to see from the Blues camp.
Interestingly enough that is where we see the battle being won. The back 5 of the Blues are on paper a much stronger, more dynamic and most importantly better defensive unit than QLD. Stephen Crichton, Latrell Mitchell and Zac Lomax are all averaging under 20% missed tackle rate this season while the only player in the Maroons backline under 20% is Robert Toia (6.9%) with Kalyn Ponga at 50% for the Knights.
The backline of NSW also has a higher ceiling in terms of individual brilliance which is likely to come to the forefront in a tough Game 1 battle. Working out of their own end to build a platform for the forwards to push through and deliver the territory for the halves to work their magic.
QLD have a more mobile forward pack but could be overrun if NSW opt to batter their big boys through the middle, possession will be key with turnovers costing not only field position but more tackling which leads to fatigue. Something the Maroons struggled with in the 2024 series loss.
Take NSW to win and cover the short line as favourites on the road at Suncorp. Only 6 of the last 33 games have been decided by 6 pts or less lending weight to the cover with the Game Total also trending Under in Game 1’s historically.
Our exotic bet in this game is NSW to score first and win.
NSW $2.33Score First & WinBet Here
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- NSW have won 2 of the last 3 Game 1’s at Suncorp Stadium (2014, 2017)
- Since 2010, the Game 1 Total has gone Under 39.5 in 12 of 16 games.
- NSW have scored first in 6 of the last 8 Game 1 matchups.
- Zac Lomax has scored 3 tries in 3 Origin games and 16 tries in his last 27 NRL games dating back to start of 2024.
Head to Head
The 2024 Series was won by NSW 2-1 clinching games 2 and 3 in dominant fashion after being blown out in Game 1. The series win snapped a streak of 2 series wins for the Maroons.
QLD lead the overall series H2H 24-17 with 2 series being drawn. The Maroons also hold an advantage in game wins 70-60 with 2 games ending in a draw.
The Maroons have won 4 straight Game 1’s and 6 of the last 7 including the most recent Game 1 at Suncorp Stadium in 2019.
Across all Origin Games played at Suncorp Stadium QLD are 39-21 with 1 game being drawn.
QLD Maroons Form Analysis
Queensland’s 2 series win streak was broken in 2024. The Maroons got off to a fantastic start in Game 1, winning 38-10 in Sydney following a NSW send off after just 8 minutes.
That was about as good as it got though for the Queenslanders as they lost Game 2 in Melbourne 38-18 after being down 34-0 at half time. Game 3 at Suncorp was a much tighter affair with a 2-0 scoreline at the break in favour of the home team. The second half was dour for QLD as they allowed a couple tries that sealed the game and the series for their opponents.
Heading into the 2025 series, Queensland have been able to field a relatively full strength side with only a small handful of players unavailable through injury. 11 of the 20 players named in the squad are from NRL teams that are currently in the bottom 8 with a fair few of those teams arguably in quite poor form.
QLD Maroons Team News
Kalyn Ponga was the clear choice for fullback given incumbent Reece Walsh is out with injury. Robert Toia has been granted a debut after just 10 games of NRL, something that is unusual for a QLD team who like to blood their debutants over time.
Lindsay Collins has been named on the bench despite playing just 4 games so far this season. Tom Dearden as the utility has been in scintillating form for the Cowboys this year while Trent Loiero will make his debut off the pine, named ahead of Kurt Mann and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki.
QLD Maroons Team List
1. Kalyn Ponga (Knights)
2. Xavier Coates (Storm)
3. Robert Toia (Roosters)
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins)
5. Valentine Holmes (Dragons)
6. Cameron Munster (Storm)
7. Daly Cherry-Evans © (Sea Eagles)
8. Moeaki Fotuaika (Titans)
9. Harry Grant (Storm)
10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans)
11. Reuben Cotter (Cowboys)
12. Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys)
13. Patrick Carrigan (Broncos)
Interchange
14. Tom Dearden (Cowboys)
15. Lindsay Collins (Roosters)
16. Beau Fermor (Titans)
17. Trent Loiero (Storm)
Reserves
18. Kurt Mann (Bulldogs)
19. Jesse Arthars (Broncos)
20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins)
NSW Blues Form Analysis
The NSW Blues won the 2024 State of Origin series in one of the toughest ways in recent history. They were blown off the park at home in Game 1, down to 12 men after just 8 minutes of play, but then recovered to take Game 2 in a dominant fashion before edging past QLD at Suncorp in a Game 3 decider.
The Blues changed their philosophy last year behind new coach Michael Maguire and it was apparent from the get go. Now with Laurie Daley coming back into the fold as coach, there will be question marks over the mindset the team will have coming into this series with a 6-9 win record through his 15 games as Coach of the Blues between 2013-2017.
NSW also have 11 of their 20 players coming from teams currently in the bottom 8, the majority of those being from the Roosters, Panthers, Eels and Broncos. Arguably teams that are starting to show form after poor starts to 2025.
NSW Blues Team News
The Blues have opted to pick and stick with Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o and Zac Lomax all being named despite battling injury, game time and form issues through the first third of the season.
Mitchell Moses retains his spot in the halves, partnering Nathan Cleary who will play his first Origin game since Game 1 of the 2023 series.
Max King will make his Origin debut off the bench with Hudson Young being recalled into the team on the interchange.
NSW Blues Team List
1. Dylan Edwards (Panthers)
2. Brian To’o (Panthers)
3. Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs)
4. Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs)
5. Zac Lomax (Eels)
6. Mitchell Moses (Eels)
7. Nathan Cleary (Panthers)
8. Mitchell Barnett (Warriors)
9. Reece Robson (Cowboys)
10. Payne Haas (Broncos)
11. Liam Martin (Panthers)
12. Angus Crichton (Roosters)
13. Isaah Yeo (c) (Panthers)
Interchange
14. Connor Watson (Roosters)
15. Spencer Leniu (Roosters)
16. Hudson Young (Raiders)
17. Max King (Bulldogs)
Reserves
18. Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs)
19. Stefano Utoikamanu (Storm)
20. Haumole Olakau’atu (Sea Eagles)
QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2025 State of Origin Game 1 FAQ’s
How to watch QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2025 State of Origin Game 1?
You can watch the QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2025 State of Origin Game 1 game free to air on Channel 9 in Australia. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2025 State of Origin Game 1?
To buy tickets to the QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2025 State of Origin Game 1 game check the NRL website or the official QLD Maroons site.
Verdict
Take NSW to win and cover the short line as favourites on the road at Suncorp. Only 6 of the last 33 games have been decided by 6 pts or less lending weight to the cover with the Game Total also trending Under in Game 1’s historically. Zac Lomax is our top pick for tryscorer.
NSW -2.5
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