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State of Origin Game 3 Preview – Can Queensland Pull Off an Upset?

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Fri 04 Jul 2025 09:40

Jeremy Darke 04 Jul 2025

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Game 3 of the 2025 State of Origin promises an intense battle, with the series tied.
Queensland implements strategic changes: Papali'i and Shibasaki key figures.
Jez breaks down Origin 3 solo

Jez gives you all of the insights in to State of Origin Game 3.

State of Origin Game 3 Preview: Momentum, Changes & Predictions

With the series locked at one-all, Game 3 of the 2025 State of Origin promises fireworks. In this episode of Ahead of the Game, Jez steps in solo while Ryan enjoys France and breaks down what to expect when Queensland and New South Wales clash in the decider.

Looking back at Game 2, Queensland dominated the first half, capitalising on wet conditions and a favourable penalty count. Munster thrived with the captaincy, playing his best Origin in years. But it was a different story after the break. NSW wrestled back control, kept Queensland scoreless, and exposed cracks in their defence.

Heading into Game 3, NSW remain unchanged. Their game plan, built on possession, pressure, and strike weapons like Mitchell and Lomax, is working. Queensland, on the other hand, have rolled the dice with bold changes. Papali'i returns for grunt and experience, while Hammer moves to fullback to replace the injured Ponga. The biggest wildcard? Gehamat Shibasaki. Powerful, unpredictable, and in form, the Brisbane centre could be key to Queensland’s hopes.

The big question is whether Queensland can find their attacking rhythm. They'll need more from their forwards and sharper execution in the red zone. Jez emphasises the need to target NSW in the air and get Hammer running early.

Prediction? NSW are strong favourites, and Jez is backing them to cover the line and keep the total under 42.5 points. But if Queensland’s “what-ifs” come off, Billy Slater’s gamble could pay off in spectacular fashion.

Whatever happens, it’s set to be a classic. Enjoy it with family, cheer hard and “Go Queensland!”