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Which AFL Clubs Should Be Most Optimistic in 2026?

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Fri 13 Feb 2026 08:52

Jesse Mclure 13 Feb 2026

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AFL optimism for 2026 is driven by trajectory and team structure.
Hawthorn, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, forge sustainable paths.
Brisbane and Geelong leverage stability for confident seasons ahead.

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Which AFL Clubs Should Be the Most Optimistic Heading Into the 2026 Season?

Optimism in the AFL isn’t determined purely by ladder position. It’s shaped by direction, list balance, coaching clarity and how many levers still exist for improvement.

Which AFL Clubs Should Be the Most Optimistic Heading Into the 2026 Season?
Why AFL Optimism in 2026 Is About Trajectory, Not Hype
Why Hawthorn’s AFL Window Is Opening, Not Closing
Why Gold Coast’s 2026 Optimism Feels Different
Why North Melbourne’s Development Arc Looks Sustainable
Why Brisbane and Geelong Enter 2026 With Stable Confidence

Some clubs enter a season hoping everything breaks right. Others enter knowing that even if setbacks arrive, the foundation underneath them is strong enough to absorb it. Heading into 2026, several AFL clubs have legitimate reasons to feel confident about where they are headed, even if a premiership isn’t immediately within reach.

Why AFL Optimism in 2026 Is About Trajectory, Not Hype

Sustainable optimism comes from trajectory.

Clubs don’t need to be perfect to feel positive. They need to see patterns forming, younger players improving within structure, game plans that hold up under pressure, and a list profile that makes sense over a three-to-five-year window.

When improvement feels repeatable rather than accidental, belief grows naturally. When success looks like a spike rather than a trend, optimism becomes fragile.

The teams entering 2026 with genuine confidence are those that can point to structural growth, not just isolated wins.

Why Hawthorn’s AFL Window Is Opening, Not Closing

Hawthorn sits comfortably near the top of the optimism ladder.

The system is clearly defined, the coaching direction is stable, and the age profile suggests growth rather than decline. Players like Will Day and Josh Weddle still have another level to reach, and the broader list doesn’t feel top-heavy or dependent on one individual.

Even with setbacks such as Day’s injury, the trajectory remains upward. The Hawks have built a side that understands how it wants to play and has the personnel to execute it.

That’s what early-stage contention looks like, not dominance yet, but steady forward movement.

Why Gold Coast’s 2026 Optimism Feels Different

Gold Coast’s optimism has shifted from promise to expectation.

Christian Petracca arriving changes the tone immediately. He brings proven midfield power, scoreboard impact and a level of big-game credibility that young lists can’t manufacture. Petracca doesn’t just add talent, he adds certainty. When games get physical or momentum swings, he’s the type of player who can drag the contest back onto his terms.

The other major difference is Jamarra Ugle-Hagan joining the Suns, and the ripple effect of that move could be just as important as his individual output. Gold Coast has often relied heavily on Ben King as the primary aerial threat inside 50. Now with two genuine focal points, the Suns can stretch defensive setups instead of playing into them. If Ugle-Hagan commands the strongest defender, King gets cleaner looks. If attention shifts toward King, Ugle-Hagan becomes the release valve.

This is no longer a young team learning how to compete. Finals experience has already removed one psychological barrier, and the list now has genuine star power added to an improving core.

Why North Melbourne’s Development Arc Looks Sustainable

North Melbourne’s optimism isn’t loud, but it is real.

The core of George Wardlaw, Nick Larkey, Luke Davies-Uniacke and other emerging contributors forms a spine that makes structural sense. The midfield profile is strengthening, the forward line has clarity, and the rebuild appears aligned rather than reactive.

Improvement may not always translate to a dramatic ladder jump in 2026, but progress can be measured in cohesion and competitiveness. The pieces feel connected now, rather than assembled. That distinction matters.

Why Brisbane and Geelong Enter 2026 With Stable Confidence

Brisbane and Geelong approach optimism from a position of stability rather than projection.

Brisbane’s belief is grounded in experience. The Lions understand that their best football is good enough in September, and their list continuity supports that confidence. Injury returns and depth simply strengthen an already proven model.

Geelong’s optimism is more methodical. The Cats rarely enter seasons with noise around them because their structure absorbs volatility. There is a blend of experience and emerging youth, and the system rarely breaks under stress.

Neither club needs to reinvent itself to justify belief. That’s a luxury many others don’t have.