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Western Australia vs Victoria AFL Origin Tips - Victoria sneak home

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 12 Feb 2026 11:55

Jeremy Darke 12 Feb 2026

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Western Australia vs Victoria expert predictions for Saturday’s Origin AFL game
The game will be played at Optus Stadium, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEDT)
WA's home-ground advantage could enliven play, but Victoria's depth may win the day.
Experts predict a narrow Victoria win by 1-39 points, with Toby Greene expected to shine.

Western Australia vs Victoria tips AFL Origin

Western Australia vs Victoria, Origin 2026 - Expert Prediction

The first State of Origin clash between Western Australia and Victoria since 1992 is set to kick the season off with a bang, and it feels like more than just a novelty fixture.

Western Australia vs Victoria, Origin 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Western Australia Team List (Predicted)
Western Australia Team Analysis
Victoria Team List (Predicted)
Victoria Team Analysis
Western Australia vs Victoria AFL 2026 Origin FAQ’s

There's a genuine edge to this one with two proud footy states, stacked with elite talent, stripped back from club systems and thrown together in a contest that’s likely to swing on instinct and adaptability.

Expect WA to ride the early emotion at home, bringing speed, pressure and a willingness to take the game on. They’ll have moments where they look unstoppable, especially when the game opens up and territory becomes secondary to chaos. Luke Jackson hitting the scoreboard in front of his home crowd would feel fitting in those surges.

But across four quarters, Victoria’s depth should prove decisive. Their ability to rotate quality through the middle, stay composed when momentum shifts and control the tempo when needed gives them a steadier profile.

Toby Greene looms as the type to make the most of limited chances and should snag 2+ goals sniffing around loose balls inside 50. WA will have strong, dominant patches, but the Big V’s balance and depth should see them win by 1–39 points.

Head to Head

Western Australia and Victoria have not played each other since 1992, when the Big V thrashed W.A 157-90 in front of a crowd of 32 152 at the MCG .

Western Australia Team List (Predicted)

B: Lawson Humphries, Tom Barrass, Nathan Broad

HB: Liam Baker, Sam Taylor, Jordan Clark

C: Bradley Hill, Patrick Cripps, Wil Powell

HF: Shai Bolton, Aaron Naughton, Kysaiah Pickett

F: Mitch Georgiades, Jesse Hogan, Charlie Cameron

FOLL: Darcy Cameron, Luke Jackson, Chad Warner

I/C: Callum Ah Chee, Stephen Coniglio, Tim English, Rory Lobb, Jaeger O’Meara, Trent Rivers, Jake Waterman

Coach: Dean Cox

Western Australia Team Analysis

WA are set up as the momentum side, built around power and chaos rather than control. Patrick Cripps is the tone-setter in the middle with Chad Warner adding burst and speed, while Shai Bolton and Kysaiah Pickett provide genuine damage around stoppages and inside 50.

Up forward, Bolton, Pickett and Charlie Cameron thrive in broken play, with Jesse Hogan and Jake Waterman giving them strong aerial presence. Luke Jackson is the wildcard, capable of rotating through the ruck, midfield and forward line, shifting the dynamic of the game.

In defence, Sam Taylor and Tom Barrass form a reliable key pairing, supported by Nathan Broad’s composure.

The concern for WA is sustainability. They will likely rely on sharp bursts rather than long control, and if they don’t capitalise on those moments, this game could get away from them.

Victoria Team List (Predicted)

B: Tom Stewart, Sam Collins, Josh Battle

HB: Lachie Ash, Jacob Weitering, Jack Sinclair

C: Caleb Serong, Matthew Rowell, Hugh McCluggage

HF: Zak Butters, Ben King, Noah Anderson

F: Toby Greene, Sam Darcy, Patrick Dangerfield

FOLL: Max Gawn, Marcus Bontempelli, Nick Daicos

I/C: Jack Gunston, Max Holmes, Zach Merrett, Ed Richards, Tristan Xerri, Blake Hardwick, Bailey Smith

Coach: Chris Scott

Victoria Team Analysis

Victoria are built around control, depth and method. Max Gawn is central to that, not just as a tap ruckman, but as a structural presence who can dictate the tempo of stoppages and allow the midfield to set up behind the ball. He’s supported by Jeremy Cameron’s physicality and follow-up work at ground level.

Through the middle, Marcus Bontempelli, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson provide class and balance, while Caleb Serong, Ed Richards, Zach Merrett and Max Holmes ensure there’s no drop-off when rotations roll through. Their depth is the biggest strength for Victoria as they will be able to make seamless interchanges.

Up forward, Ben King and Sam Darcy will be the focal point, while Toby Greene and Patrick Dangerfield will be buzzing around to pick up scraps and punish turnovers.

Victoria’s approach will be patient and territory-driven forcing WA wide and making them execute under pressure. If it becomes a repeat-entry contest, they’ll likely grind WA down, though chaos could test their structure.

Western Australia vs Victoria AFL 2026 Origin FAQ’s

How to watch Western Australia vs Victoria AFL 2026 Origin?

The 2026 AFL Origin match will be broadcast live on Fox Footy, via Kayo Sports and Foxtel (504).
Fox Footy’s coverage of the event from Optus Stadium will begin at 6.30pm (AEDT).

How to buy tickets to Western Australia vs Victoria AFL 2026 Origin?

Tickets for the 2026 AAMI AFL Origin match – Western Australia v Victoria on Saturday, February 14 at Optus Stadium are currently exhausted.

Should any final general public tickets become available, they will be released via Ticketmaster on a date to be communicated via AFL Channels.

Verdict

Western Australia v Victoria AFL Origin

Victoria will have too much depth for WA winning by a 1-39. There is likely to be plenty of points so expect Toby Greene to kick a couple of goals while Luke Jackson get one in front of his home crowd.

Victoria

1-39 Winning Margin

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