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Essendon vs St Kilda AFL Round 17 Tips - Bombers for the upset?
Essendon is tipped as the value upset in AFL Round 17, 2026, despite models favoring St Kilda. The Saints are struggling with an extended injury list and recent poor form, while Essendon has shown improvement with returning players and organizational cohesion. With standout performances expected from Nate Caddy and Zach Merrett, this presents an opportunity for Essendon to break their losing streak. Betting value is seen with Essendon +27.5 or head-to-head at $4.50, considering St Kilda’s weakened lineup.
- St Kilda is injury-hit and has lost 4 of past 5 matches.
- Essendon is improving with key players returning, presenting upset value.
- Nate Caddy & Zach Merrett tipped to star for the Bombers in AFL Round 17.
- The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, 5th July, with the bounce at 3:15 PM (AEST)
Expired
Essendon vs St Kilda AFL Round 17 Tips
Essendon vs St Kilda, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction
This is the upset play of the round. The models and ladder both point towards St Kilda, but with the Saints carrying a growing injury list and Essendon finally getting healthier, this looks like the perfect opportunity for the Bombers to snap their 10-game losing streak.
- Essendon vs St Kilda, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Essendon Form Analysis
- St Kilda Form Analysis
- Essendon vs St Kilda Team List & News
- Essendon vs St Kilda AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s
The safe play is Essendon +27.5, but there is enough value at around $4.50 to have something on the Bombers head-to-head as well, despite what the models at footybets have to say.
St Kilda has lost four of its past five matches and heads into Round 17 without several key players after Jack Sinclair suffered what could be a season-ending calf injury, Tom De Koning is sidelined with cracked ribs and a punctured lung, while young defender James Barrat is also unavailable. Rowan Marshall is racing the clock after injuring his shoulder before the bye.
Essendon has only one win to show for its season, but the performances have gradually improved as experienced players have returned. The Bombers pushed Carlton to five points three weeks ago and were competitive again against North Melbourne despite another loss. They look far more organised than they did earlier in the season and should believe they can beat an undermanned Saints side.
Nate Caddy shapes as Essendon's biggest scoring threat. The young key forward leads the club's goalkicking and has kicked multiple goals in three of his past five games. If the Bombers can generate enough inside 50 opportunities, Caddy is capable of taking advantage against a St Kilda defence missing key personnel.
Zach Merrett also looks primed for another huge afternoon through the midfield. The Essendon captain has recorded 30 or more disposals in three of his past five matches and will again shoulder the responsibility around the contest against a Saints midfield that has also lost depth through injury.
- St Kilda has lost four of its past five matches.
- Essendon have covered the line in 50% of their matches at Marvel in 2026.
- Nate Caddy has kicked 2+ goals in three of his past five games.
- Zach Merrett has recorded 30+ disposals in three of his past five matches.
Head to Head Stats
The Essendon Bombers and St Kilda Saints have split their past 10 meetings five wins apiece, although the Saints have won the last two home-and-away clashes.
Last year's meeting was decided by just two points, showing there has been very little separating these sides recently despite their vastly different seasons in 2026.
Essendon Form Analysis
Essendon remains rooted to the bottom of the ladder with a 1-14 record, but recent performances have been more encouraging than the win-loss column suggests. The Bombers lost by just five points to Carlton before competitive defeats to Melbourne and North Melbourne, with several young players beginning to show genuine development.
The Bombers have averaged just 58.6 points across their past five matches, but that number doesn't fully reflect the improvement in their ball movement and forward connection over recent weeks.
Sam Durham has continued his strong season, Nate Caddy has emerged as the club's primary key forward, while Zach Merrett continues to carry the midfield with elite consistency.
There is still plenty to improve defensively, but Essendon is playing with noticeably more confidence than it was a month ago.
St Kilda Form Analysis
St Kilda enters Round 17 in 13th position after dropping four of its past five games. The Saints are averaging just 80.0 points while conceding almost 100 points across that stretch, with heavy losses to Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs exposing defensive issues.
The biggest concern is the injury list. Jack Sinclair's calf injury is expected to sideline him long term, Tom De Koning faces time out with cracked ribs and a punctured lung, and young defender James Barrat has also been ruled out. Rowan Marshall is no certainty to return after hurting his shoulder before the bye.
While Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera continues to produce outstanding football and Jack Macrae provides experience through the midfield, the Saints head into this match looking significantly weaker than the side that started the season.
Essendon vs St Kilda Team List & News
Essendon Team News
Essendon is gradually getting healthier, with several experienced players returning over recent weeks and the side beginning to show improved cohesion.
St Kilda Team News
The Saints have been hit hard by injuries, with Jack Sinclair, Tom De Koning and James Barrat all unavailable, while Rowan Marshall remains under an injury cloud after hurting his shoulder before the bye. Their depth will be severely tested.
Essendon vs St Kilda AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s
How to watch Essendon vs St Kilda AFL 2026 Round 17?
You can watch the Essendon vs St Kilda AFL 2026 Round 17 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Essendon vs St Kilda AFL 2026 Round 17?
To buy tickets to the Essendon vs St Kilda AFL 2026 Round 17 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon site.
Verdict
Essendon +27.5, Essendon Head-to-Head ($4.50), Nate Caddy 3+ Goals, Zach Merrett 30+ Disposals.
Essendon +27.5
Handicap/Line
$1.91 - 3 Units
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