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Jesse's AFL Round 17 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026 13:35

Jeremy Darke 1 hour ago

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Jesse predicts the outcome & margin for every AFL Round 17 match.
Key games include a Grand Final rematch and top-four race showdowns.
Predicted strong performances from Fremantle, Sydney, and Carlton.

Just the Tips from True Footy

AFL Round 17 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

The bye rounds are finally over, and the AFL season enters the home stretch with every club back on the same schedule.

AFL Round 17 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs Prediction
West Coast vs Adelaide Prediction
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Prediction
GWS Giants vs Fremantle Prediction
Gold Coast vs Collingwood Prediction
Richmond vs Carlton Prediction
Essendon vs St Kilda Prediction
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Prediction

The ladder is beginning to settle, the race for the top four is intensifying, and every result now carries extra weight in the push towards September. Round 17 delivers a Grand Final rematch, several huge finals-shaping clashes and a handful of games that could make or break seasons.

Here are Jesse’s tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 17 game.

Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction

A Grand Final rematch opens Round 17, and it couldn't come at a more important time for both clubs.

Brisbane reminded everyone of their premiership credentials by dismantling Sydney last week, with Lachie Neale and their contested ball work returning to their best. Geelong, meanwhile, are coming off the bye after a dominant stretch of football, although recent history suggests the Cats haven't always returned at their sharpest after a week off.

The Lions have won at GMHBA Stadium before and look to be building towards another late-season charge.

Jesse's Tip: Brisbane Lions by 16 points

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Sydney vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Sydney suffered a rare off night against Brisbane, but one poor performance isn't enough to move them from the competition's top tier.

Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden remain the heartbeat of the Swans, while the Bulldogs have scraped through several close victories this season without ever truly convincing. Marcus Bontempelli can keep the Dogs competitive, but Sydney should bounce back strongly at the SCG.

Jesse's Tip: Sydney Swans by 31 points

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West Coast vs Adelaide Prediction

Both teams come off disappointing losses, creating an intriguing matchup in Perth.

West Coast have steadily improved throughout the season and pushed Adelaide all the way at Optus Stadium last year. The Crows remain the superior side on talent, led by Jordan Dawson and Riley Thilthorpe, but they've also shown signs of slipping over the past fortnight.

This feels closer than the ladder suggests, but Adelaide should respond.

Jesse's Tip: Adelaide Crows by 10 points

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Hawthorn vs Melbourne Prediction

These sides have already met once this season, with Melbourne producing one of their best performances of the year.

This time the venue changes to UTAS Stadium, where Hawthorn have made life difficult for every opponent. Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore continue to drive the Hawks' ball movement, while Melbourne have struggled to consistently reproduce their best football away from the MCG.

That home-ground advantage could prove decisive.

Jesse's Tip: Hawthorn by 34 points

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GWS Giants vs Fremantle Prediction

Fremantle continue to set the benchmark across the competition, while GWS remain one of the hardest teams to predict.

The Giants can still produce elite football, but injuries continue to mount with Brent Daniels sidelined and Jesse Hogan's absence leaving a major hole inside 50. Caleb Serong, Hayden Young and Shai Bolton continue to lead a Dockers side that simply finds different ways to win.

Until someone proves they can stop Fremantle, they're impossible to tip against.

Jesse's Tip: Fremantle by 40 points

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Gold Coast vs Collingwood Prediction

Gold Coast's season has fallen away dramatically after such a promising start.

Despite boasting Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson through the midfield, the Suns have struggled to turn possession into scoreboard pressure. Collingwood haven't been at their best either, but Nick Daicos continues to lead one of the AFL's stingiest defensive systems.

If the Magpies can limit Gold Coast's inside 50 efficiency, they should control the game.

Jesse's Tip: Collingwood by 16 points

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Richmond vs Carlton Prediction

Carlton's remarkable turnaround continues after looking destined for a bottom-four finish earlier in the year.

Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh have rediscovered their best football, while Charlie Curnow again shapes as the key target inside 50. Richmond continue to compete hard despite a lengthy injury list, but the Tigers simply don't have the depth to match Carlton's current form.

The Blues should continue their winning streak.

Jesse's Tip: Carlton by 46 points

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Essendon vs St Kilda Prediction

Essendon continue to battle through one of the toughest injury lists in the competition, and another difficult assignment awaits.

St Kilda know every game is effectively an elimination final if they want to keep their finals hopes alive. Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera continue to lead the Saints, and they should have far too much class against the undermanned Bombers.

Jesse's Tip: St Kilda by 44 points

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Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Prediction

Port Adelaide have quietly become one of the AFL's form teams after a slow start to the season.

Josh Carr's side has built its resurgence around a much-improved defence, while Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis continue to dominate around stoppages. North Melbourne have won three straight games, but those victories have come against lower-ranked opposition and this shapes as a significant step up in class.

At Adelaide Oval, Port look the better side.

Jesse's Tip: Port Adelaide by 27 points