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Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs AFL Round 17 Tips - Dogs keep pressure on the Swans

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Thu 02 Jul 2026 10:56

Jeremy Darke 02 Jul 2026

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Swans favored, but Bulldogs tipped to cover +20.5 spread.
Expect a high total; model projects nearly 200 points.
Curnow & Naughton both likely for 2+ goals.
The game will be played at SCG on Friday, 3rd July, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)

Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs AFL Round 17 Tips

Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Western Bulldogs look capable of staying within the number despite Sydney entering as deserved favourites at the SCG.

Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs Team List & News
Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

The Swans should still be difficult to beat, but getting the Bulldogs at +20.5 points appeals in what shapes as a competitive contest.

The model projects Sydney by 26.6 points, but the market is only asking the Bulldogs to stay within three goals. Luke Beveridge's side has won four of its past five matches and arrives with confidence after grinding out an important win over St Kilda.

Sydney remains one of the competition's premier attacking teams, although last week's 43-point loss to Brisbane exposed some vulnerabilities when opponents pressure their ball movement.

The total also stands out. The model over at footybets.com.au projects almost 200 total points, well above the current market around 184 points. Four of the last six meetings between these clubs have cleared 183.5 points, while Sydney averages 106 points across its past five games.

The same game multi of Charlie Curnow and Aaron Naughton to kick 2+ goals also has plenty going for it. Curnow has booted 18 goals across his past five matches and already kicked seven goals against the Bulldogs earlier this season.

Naughton has kicked multiple goals in three of his past five games and has a strong record against Sydney, making him an excellent partner-leg.

The Western Bulldogs have won their last 2 matches against Sydney at the SCG.
Four of the last 6 meetings between the Swans vs Bulldogs have gone over the game total.
Aaron Naughton has 2+ goals in 3 of his last 5 matches.
Charlie Curnow has kicked 18 goals in his last 5 matches.

Head to Head Stats

The Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs have split their past five meetings at 3-2 in Sydney's favour, although the margins have varied dramatically.

The Swans demolished the Bulldogs by 66 points earlier this season after Charlie Curnow kicked seven goals, while the Bulldogs won both meetings in 2024 and also claimed a nine-point victory last season.

High-scoring games have become common between these clubs, with four of the last six clashes producing more than 183.5 total points.

Sydney Swans Form Analysis

Sydney sits second on the ladder with a 12-3 record despite last week's disappointing 43-point loss to Brisbane. The Swans are averaging 106.0 points across their past five matches while conceding 96.2, highlighted by a dominant 170-point performance against Richmond and consecutive close wins over St Kilda and Port Adelaide before the loss at the Gabba.

The Swans remain one of the AFL's most dangerous attacking sides, averaging over 110 points per game for the season while generating more inside 50s than any other club.

Their ability to score from turnover remains elite, but Brisbane's pressure last week showed that disrupting Sydney's overlap handball game can significantly slow their ball movement.

Charlie Curnow continues to be one of the biggest weapons in the competition after kicking three goals against Brisbane, taking his tally to 18 across his past five games. Chad Warner also arrives in outstanding form after a four-goal performance despite the defeat.

Western Bulldogs Form Analysis

The Western Bulldogs have quietly rebuilt momentum, winning four of their past five matches to climb back into the top eight. They are averaging 82.8 points while conceding 87.2 over that stretch, although that defensive average is inflated by the heavy loss to Adelaide.

The Bulldogs continue to rely on their contested game, ranking among the better clearance sides in the competition. Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and Ed Richards have again driven the midfield, while Bailey Dale's ball use from half-back remains a major source of attack.

Aaron Naughton has found consistency inside 50, kicking multiple goals in three of his past five matches. The return of Liberatore has also added greater balance around stoppages, helping the Bulldogs regain their contested edge after an inconsistent middle portion of the season.

Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs Team List & News

Sydney Swans Team News

Dean Cox has swung the axe after last week's loss, making six changes. Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald, Sam Wicks and Peter Ladhams are all sidelined through injury, while Riley Bice and Malcolm Rosas have been omitted. Dane Rampe returns alongside Hayden McLean, Matt Roberts, Tom Hanily, Harry Kyle and Corey Warner.

Western Bulldogs Team News

Just one change for the Bulldogs, with Cody Weightman returning to replace the omitted Rhyme West.

Sydney Swans	POS	Western Bulldogs
C. Mills, W. Edwards, T. McCartin	B	N. Coffield, J. O'Donnell, B. Khamis
M. Roberts, N. Blakey, H. Cunningham	HB	C. Budarick, R. Lobb, B. Dale
J. Lloyd, E. Gulden, J. Serong	C	R. Sanders, M. Bontempelli, L. Bramble
J. Jordon, T. Hanily, J. Rowbottom	HF	C. Hynes, J. Croft, A. Jones
C. Cleary, C. Curnow, H. McLean	F	W. Lewis, A. Naughton, C. Weightman
B. Grundy, I. Heeney, C. Warner	FOLL	T. English, J. Freijah, E. Richards
H. Kyle, D. Rampe, A. Sheldrick, J. Hamling, Co. Warner	I/C	M. Sellwood, T. Liberatore, M. Kennedy, L. Kennedy, L. McNeil

Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

How to watch Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Round 17?

You can watch the Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Round 17 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Round 17?

To buy tickets to the Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Round 17 game check the AFL website or the official Sydney Swans site.

Verdict

Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs +20.5, Over 183.5 Total Points, Charlie Curnow 2+ Goals & Aaron Naughton 2+ Goals Same Game Multi.

Western Bulldogs +20.5

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