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West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows AFL Round 17 Tips - Eagles to stick with the Crows in Friday night footy

adam-cusworth
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Last updated: Wed 01 Jul 2026 11:57

The AFL 2026 Round 17 matchup between West Coast Eagles and Adelaide Crows is shaping up as a closer contest than the ladder suggests. Despite their underdog status, West Coast's strong home performances at Optus Stadium and Adelaide's recent scoring struggles indicate a tight, physical battle with a low total score. The recommendation is to back West Coast to stay under the line (+28.5) and for the total match points to go under 172.5. Expect a contest full of intensity, with Adelaide edging out a win but West Coast making it tough throughout.

Adam Cusworth 01 Jul 2026
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  • The game will be played at Optus Stadium on Friday July 3, with the first bounce at 8:10pm (AEST)
  • Can the Crows put the Eagles away early at Optus Stadium?
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction


West Coast will push Adelaide to the brink in what shapes as a danger game for the Crows as we head towards the business end of the season.

The Eagles come in as underdogs on the back of their 4-11 win-loss record, while Adelaide are 9-6 and in 6th position, equal on wins with 4th placed Geelong.

Despite the gap on the ladder, this shapes as a closer contest than the market suggests. West Coast have been far more competitive at Optus Stadium this season, with three wins, while three of their four home defeats coming by less than two goals, and they have shown they can match stronger opposition for long periods before fading late.

The Eagles were well below their best against Carlton but should respond on their home deck, where their pressure and contest work has generally been far stronger. They know the formula required to compete with the better sides and, against an Adelaide outfit coming off an emotionally draining Showdown, they can stay within the line.

The Crows have built their success around fierce pressure and clearance dominance, but they were beaten in both areas last weekend and now face a trip west on a short turnaround. Adelaide have also found scoring harder to come by in recent weeks, kicking fewer than 80 points in four of their past five matches.

That points towards a lower-scoring affair. West Coast are averaging just 69 points per game across the past three rounds and are unlikely to open the game up against one of the competition's better defensive sides. Equally, Adelaide's recent scoring profile suggests they may struggle to build the sort of margin required to cover a line around the 28.5-point mark.

Expect a physical contest with plenty of stoppages and territory football. Adelaide should have enough class to secure the four points, but West Coast can make life difficult throughout the afternoon and look good value to stay within the line, while the total match points appeal to go under.

  • West Coast lost by just nine points in the most recent head to head between the two sides with that match played at Optus Stadium late last season. 
  • The Eagles have a 3-4 record at Optus in 2026 with three of their four losses decided by less than two goals. 
  • Adelaide have kicked less than 80 points in four of their past five matches 
  • West Coast are averaging 69 points per game in the past three rounds.

Head to Head Stats


Adelaide have won the past seven meetings between the two sides by an average margin of 55 points, but the Eagles came close in the most recent meeting, going down by just nine points at Optus Stadium in Round 22 last season.

Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
  • Jordan Dawson (Crows)- 25+ disposals in five of his last six against the Eagles with 24 in the other
  • Tim Kelly (Eagles)- 25+ disposals in four of his past six against the Crows
  • Josh Rachele (Crows)- 10 goals from his past three appearances against West Coast
  • Taylor Walker (Crows)- 21 goals in his past three against the Eagles

West Coast Eagles Form Analysis


West Coast have a win-loss record of 4-11 and have lost their past three matches, dropping close ones to Port Adelaide by six points and North Melbourne by one before going down to a resurgent Carlton side by 53 points in Round 16.

They were smashed in the disposals count, with Carlton leading uncontested possession 296-180 and inside 50s 61-49, resulting in the 117-64 scoreline.

Harley Reid had a team-high 23 disposals, while Bailey Williams and Brady Hough were multiple goal kickers. The Eagles head back to Optus Stadium and have a 3-4 record against interstate sides at the venue this season.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis


Adelaide are 6th on the ladder with a 9-6 win-loss record and last year's minor premiers looked like they were finally beginning to click into gear by winning six of seven matches before dropping their Round 16 clash to their cross-town rivals, Port Adelaide, by 26 points.

They could only register 16 scoring shots to 32 in the 13.19 to 11.5 scoreline and were beaten 42-22 at clearance.

Jordan Dawson was solid with 25 disposals and has reached that mark in six of his past nine matches, while Darcy Fogarty kept the Crows in the game with five goals. Josh Rachele leads Adelaide's goal-kicking table with 26 this season and has kicked eight in the past three rounds.

West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows Team List & News


  • to be updated after team selection on Thursday

West Coast Eagles Team News


West Coast are set to lose their top draft pick, Cooper Duff-Tytler, to a calf injury. Tim Kelly is out for a month with a knee injury, while mid-season recruit Oliver Francou may be considered after producing a big performance in the WAFL last weekend. Fin Macrae continues his strong form at the lower level.

Adelaide Crows Team News


Adelaide have a host of players who may be available to return from injury, including Callum Ah Chee, Jordon Butts and Mitch Hinge. They are nearly at full strength, making it hard for the likes of Tyler Welsh and Toby Murray to sneak in despite that pair producing some solid form in the SANFL. 

West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

  • How to watch West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 17?

    You can watch the West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 17 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

  • How to buy tickets to West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 17?

    To buy tickets to the West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 17 game check the AFL website or the official West Coast Eagles site.

Verdict

West Coast to stay under the line margin in a low scoring match
Best Bet1: West Coast +28.5 Line $1.88 at OnlyBets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Under 172.5 O/U $1.87 at OnlyBets - 1 Unit
West Coast +28.5
Line
$1.88 - 1 Unit
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Under 172.5
O/U
$1.87 - 1 Unit
Newest Australian Bookie
Referral Code: MAXBET

The OnlyBets referral code is MAXBET. 18+. T&Cs apply.

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