Richmond vs Carlton AFL Round 17 Tips - Blues to Blowout Tigers

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026 10:45

Ryan Tucker 2 hours ago

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The game will be played at MCG on Saturday, 4th July, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)
Carlton tipped for 40+ win and over 101.5 team points vs Richmond
Goalscorer multi: Cripps, McGovern & Cumming recommended
Richmond in poor form and missing key forwards

Richmond vs Carlton

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction

Carlton 40+ win margin, Blues over 101.5 team total and the goalscorer multi of Patrick Cripps, Mitch McGovern and Sam Cumming are the plays for Saturday night at the MCG.

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Team List & News
Richmond vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

The Footy Bets predictive model has Carlton by 36.0 pts against a market line of 35.5, an almost perfect alignment between model and market. That agreement gives confidence to push slightly further on the margin. Carlton have won six straight under interim coach Josh Fraser and just put 117 points on West Coast last week, their highest score of the season. Richmond have lost four of their last five by an average margin of 38.0 pts and are conceding 106.5 points per game on defence, the worst in the competition. These two teams met in Round 1 and it went down to four points, but as the form lines show, that game bears no resemblance to where both sides sit now.

Carlton are averaging 91.4 pts over their last five games while Richmond are managing just 66.0. The Blues' Disposals advantage of +9.4 in this matchup and their dominant +7.1 Contested Possession edge on the season set up exactly the kind of game where a big team total and a big margin both land. Richmond's defence allowing 106.5 pts per game makes the over 101.5 team total for Carlton a straightforward read of current form rather than a stretch.

The goalscorer multi of Cripps, McGovern and Cumming is a solid play based on recent form. Cripps kicked a goal against West Coast last week to go with 31 Disposals and nine Clearances, continuing to dominate at both ends of his game. McGovern booted two goals in that same match and has been a consistent multi-goal threat in Carlton's resurgent forward line. Cumming rounds out the trio for the Tigers, he has kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games.

Take Carlton 40+ win margin, Blues over 101.5 team total and the goalscorer multi of Patrick Cripps, Mitch McGovern and Sam Cumming.

The model has Carlton by 36.0 pts against a market line of 35.5, an almost exact alignment that supports pushing toward the 40+ margin given Carlton's current trajectory and Richmond's worsening form.
Richmond are conceding 106.5 pts per game on defence, the worst in the competition, while Carlton are averaging 91.4 pts over their last five games, directly supporting the Blues clearing 101.5.
Carlton have won six straight under Josh Fraser including a 53 pt win over West Coast last week, while Richmond have lost four of their last five by an average margin of 38.0 pts.
Patrick Cripps and Mitch McGovern both kicked goals against West Coast last week, with Cripps adding 31 Disposals and nine Clearances in a form line that supports the multi.

Head to Head Stats

Carlton hold a 129-98 all-time lead but a 39-50 deficit at the MCG. The last five meetings have been close in all but 1 matchup, with Carlton winning three of those five including the most lopsided result, a 61 pt win in Round 16 2024. The most recent result was a Carlton 4 pt win in Round 1 this season.

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis

Richmond were competitive with Collingwood for a half before being blown away in the second quarter, eventually losing by 34 pts at the MCG. Tim Taranto was again the standout with four goals after being pushed forward, but the Tigers managed just 11.6 for the game and their tackle pressure across the last two matches has been alarmingly low compared to opponents.

With Tom Lynch sidelined alongside Harry Armstrong, Jonty Faull and Tom Sims, Richmond's forward line is severely undermanned heading into another tough assignment.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis

Carlton thrashed West Coast by 53 pts at Marvel Stadium for their sixth straight win and biggest score of the season. They kicked the first three goals and won the opening five clearances to set the tone immediately, with Patrick Cripps amassing 31 Disposals, nine Clearances and a goal while Ben Ainsworth continued his strong form in Carlton colours with 28 touches and five clearances.

The Blues' ball movement and run have made them one of the most dangerous attacking units in the competition under Fraser, and they now look a genuinely different team to the one that started the season 1-8.

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Team List & News

Richmond Tigers Team News: Tom Lynch, Harry Armstrong, Jonty Faull and Tom Sims all remain sidelined. Noah Hotton is managing a corked quad after the Collingwood game.

Carlton Blues Team News: The Blues come through the West Coast game injury-free. Josh Fraser is expected to name an unchanged side after a sixth consecutive win.

Richmond vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

How to watch Richmond vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 17?

You can watch the Richmond vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 17 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Richmond vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 17?

To buy tickets to the Richmond vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 17 game check the AFL website or the official Richmond site.

Verdict

Richmond v Carlton

Take Carlton 40+ win margin, Blues over 101.5 team total and the goalscorer multi of Patrick Cripps, Mitch McGovern and Sam Cumming.

Carlton 40+

Winning Margin

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