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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL Round 17 Tips - Upset on the Cards at Cattery

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Wed 01 Jul 2026 10:05

Ryan Tucker 01 Jul 2026

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Brisbane Lions tipped to win against Geelong in Round 17.
Best bets: Over 172.5 points, Cameron 2+ goals, Neale 30+ disposals.
Both teams bring strong attacks; expect a shootout.
The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday, 2nd July, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction

Brisbane to win outright, Game Total Over 172.5, Charlie Cameron 2+ goals and Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals are the four plays for Thursday night at GMHBA Stadium.

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Team List & News
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

The Footy Bets predictive model has Geelong by 22.4 pts but we are taking the other side. The Lions were sensational dismantling Sydney last week, holding the competition's highest-scoring team to just 28 points in the first half from 25 Inside 50s in a complete defensive performance. Josh Dunkley shut down Isaac Heeney at stoppages, Will Ashcroft had 30 Disposals and eight Clearances, and Brisbane led by 42 points at the final change. That is the best version of this Lions team and they have now won three of their last four.

Geelong have dropped three of their last four games and come off a bye still searching for consistency. Their attack rating of +13.3 is strong but their defence sits at +5.0 against Brisbane's far superior +11.3. Brisbane also won the most recent meeting at GMHBA Stadium back in Round 15 last season, a venue where they broke a 21-year hoodoo.

The Game Total Over 172.5 carries a massive 39.9% edge with both attacks firing, Geelong are averaging 99.3 pts and Brisbane 103.4 while both defences have shown leaks. This has the makings of an old-fashioned shootout between two top-six rivals desperate for the points.

Cameron at 2+ goals has kicked three goals in this exact matchup back in Round 10 this season. He remains Brisbane's most dangerous small forward and Geelong's defence has been generous to opposition forwards in recent weeks.

Take Brisbane to win outright, Game Total Over 172.5, Charlie Cameron 2+ goals and Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals.

Brisbane were clinical against Sydney last week, holding the league's top-scoring side to 28 points in the first half and winning by 43 points in their best performance of the season.
Geelong averaging 99.3 pts on attack and Brisbane 103.4, against defences allowing 82.4 and 93.1 pts respectively.
Charlie Cameron kicked three goals against Geelong in Round 10 this season and remains Brisbane's most dangerous small forward.
Lachie Neale had 28 Disposals against Geelong earlier this year and the model predicts 33.0 against a line of 26.5.

Head to Head Stats

The series is locked 5-5 in the last 10 meetings with Geelong holding an 18-8 advantage at GMHBA Stadium all time. The most recent result was a Geelong 41 pt win in Round 10 this season, but Brisbane won the previous meeting at this venue in Round 15 2025 by 41 pts, breaking a 21-year hoodoo at the ground.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis

Geelong return from their bye having dropped three of their last four games by a combined 14 points, including a narrow loss to ladder-leading Fremantle in Round 15 where they led by 28 points in the second quarter before being run down.

Jack Martin kicked three first-quarter goals and Patrick Dangerfield was a constant presence, but the Cats couldn't hold their advantage against a Fremantle side that found another gear in the third term. The pattern of being competitive but unable to close out games against the competition's best has been a recurring issue.

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis

Brisbane were ruthless against Sydney at the Gabba, with Josh Dunkley setting the defensive tone in a performance that limited the Swans' vaunted ball movement to almost nothing. Will Ashcroft had 30 Disposals and eight Clearances, Lachie Neale added 27 and seven, and Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey and Logan Morris combined for eight goals.

The Lions led at every change and their commitment to defence was evident in every facet of the performance. With Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko, Keidean Coleman and Oscar Allen all expected back in coming weeks, this Brisbane side is building toward finals with real depth still to come.

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Team List & News

Geelong: The Cats regain two superstars with Tom Stewart returning from concussion and Bailey Smith back after illness. Gryan Miers has been named as an emergency only as he continues to manage an ACL injury, while Jack Bowes and George Stevens make way.

Brisbane: The Lions are unchanged after their dominant win over Sydney. Dayne Zorko (quad), Hugh McCluggage (calf) and Tom Doedee (calf) remain sidelined, with all expected to be available next week.

Geelong Cats	POS	Brisbane Lions
C. O'Sullivan, J. Henry, O. Mullin	B	N. Answerth, H. Andrews, D. Gardiner
J. Kolodjashnij, T. Stewart, M. O'Connor	HB	D. Wilmot, T. Gallop, B. Reville
O. Dempsey, B. Smith, M. Blicavs	C	J. Berry, W. Ashcroft, Z. Bailey
P. Dangerfield, J. Cameron, O. Wiltshire	HF	C. Cameron, L. Morris, L. Ashcroft
O. Henry, S. Neale, J. Martin	F	S. Draper, C. Rayner, K. Lohmann
M. Edwards, M. Holmes, T. Atkins	FOLL	D. Fort, J. Dunkley, L. Neale
Z. Guthrie, S. De Koning, T. Bruhn, L. Humphries, S. Mannagh	I/C	J. Fletcher, C. McKenna, J. Tunstill, E. Hipwood, R. Lester

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

How to watch Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Round 17?

You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Round 17 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Round 17?

To buy tickets to the Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Round 17 game check the AFL website or the official Geelong Cats site.

Verdict

Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions

Take Brisbane to win outright, Game Total Over 172.5, Charlie Cameron 2+ goals and Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals.

Brisbane Lions

Moneyline

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