Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Popyrin can cover big line in Rome third round

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Mon 11 May 2026 01:40

Andrew Hendrie 11 May 2026

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Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin predictions for Monday's ATP Rome R3 match
Sinner on incredible 24-match winning streak & 29-match run at Masters level
Popyrin equipped with impressive 9-6 record vs top 10 at Masters level - tipped to cover
The match is scheduled to start around 11.00pm AEST on Monday May 11

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Alexei Popyrin (Photo by Getty Images)

Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner continues his pursuit of a first Rome title and Career Golden Masters set when he comes up against Australia's Alexei Popyrin in the third round on Monday.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Sinner vs Popyrin Stats & Trends
Sinner vs Popyrin Head To Head
Jannik Sinner Form Analysis
Alexei Popyrin Form Analysis
Sinner vs Popyrin Live Stream

Sinner is in the middle of one of his most dominant runs, coming into this clash on a 24-match winning streak and having won his last 29 matches at Masters 1000 level. Of those 24 victories, 22 have come in straight sets, with Sinner sweeping all four Masters titles so far this year. With Carlos Alcaraz sidelined, Sinner is on track to win all the big clay events this season - something Rafael Nadal only achieved once throughout his illustrious career.

However, while Sinner almost certainly wins this match, Popyrin is one of the few players that has the ability to make life difficult for the Italian - if he brings his best level to the table. The Aussie has a very health 13-20 record vs top 20 players and that record improves to a great 9-6 at Masters 1000 level. It's been a dire last nine months or so for Popyrin, but he's earned two solid wins in Rome and has absolutely nothing to lose here.

As always, tough to find value in Sinner matches, but I don't mind Popyrin to cover a big +6.5 line - that means even a routine 6-3 6-3 loss for the Australian would see the bet land. For context, Sinner was a 6-3 6-4 winner over Sebastian Ofner in his Rome opener.

Sinner vs Popyrin Stats & Trends

Popyrin has a 9-6 record vs top 10 players at Masters 1000 level
Popyrin has covered a +6.5 line in his last 14 Masters 1000 matches vs top 10 players
Popyrin covered a +6.5 line when the pair met earlier this year in Doha (3-6 5-7)
Sinner has failed to cover a -6.5 line in four of his last seven matches
Sinner is on a 24-match winning streak, with 22 of those victories coming in straight sets
Sinner has won his last 29 matches at Masters 1000 level
Sinner has won 29 of his last 30 matches on clay vs players outside the top 50 dating back to 2021

Sinner vs Popyrin Head To Head

Sinner leads 2-1, prevailing 6-3 7-5 in Doha earlier this year.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2026	Jannik Sinner	Qatar Open	Round of 16	Outdoor Hard	6–3, 7–5
2025	Jannik Sinner	US Open	Round of 64	Outdoor Hard	6–3, 6–2, 6–2
2021	Alexei Popyrin	Madrid Open	Round of 32	Outdoor Clay	7–6(5), 6–2

Jannik Sinner Form Analysis

2026 Record: 31-2
ATP Rome Record: 15-6
Current Ranking: No. 1
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2024)

What else is there to say about Sinner - the man is simply on another level to the rest of the tour with Alcaraz injured and it's tough to see anyone beating him at the moment.

After a relatively disappointing start to the year, losing to Novak Djokovic and Jakub Mensik at the Australian Open and Doha respectively, Sinner has surged back to his dominant best and brings a 24-match winning streak into this contest.

Sinner has swept titles at Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo and Madrid, extending his Masters 1000 streak to 29 matches.

The Italian is now bidding to win a first Rome title, launching his campaign with a 6-3 6-4 victory over Sebastian Ofner in his opener.

"It is an amazing feeling to be back," Sinner said. "The first match, the most important thing is not to lose. The level will eventually come day by day. I am very happy to be here. Since day one, this has been a very special tournament for me. Every year when you come here, you reflect about the year a little bit, being Italian and in a year a lot of things can change. I am happy to be here."

Alexei Popyrin Form Analysis

2026 Record: 6-11
ATP Rome Record: 6-3
Current Ranking: No. 60
Career-High Ranking: No. 19 (August 2025)

It's been an alarming fall from grace for Popyrin, who less than 12 months ago broke into the world's top 20 for the first time.

Popyrin went on a 10-match losing run at the end of last year and the beginning of last season, but a shift to clay has seen his form improve slightly.

The Aussie made the quarter-finals in Houston, but suffered opening round exits in Monte Carlo and Madrid.

Popyrin is playing his best tennis of the season in Rome, easing past former World No. 6 Matteo Berrettini 6-2 6-3 before upsetting Jakub Mensik 6-2 2-6 6-4 to reach the third round - only the second time in 2026 that he's won back-to-back matches.