Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Medvedev to pass Cobolli test in Madrid R16

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Tue 28 Apr 2026 02:04

Andrew Hendrie 28 Apr 2026

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Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli predictions for Tuesday's ATP Madrid R16 match
Cobolli struggles vs top 10 players, going 2-17 in his career
Medvedev has won his last two R16 Madrid matches - tipped to prevail
The match is scheduled to start around 4.30am AEST on Wednesday April 29

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Daniil Medvedev (Photo by Getty Images)

Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Daniil Medvedev targets a third consecutive Madrid Masters quarter-final when he faces 13th seed Flavio Cobolli on Tuesday.

Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Medvedev vs Cobolli Stats & Trends
Medvedev vs Cobolli Head To Head
Daniil Medvedev Form Analysis
Flavio Cobolli Form Analysis
Medvedev vs Cobolli Live Stream

Medvedev has overall put together a much-improved season so far in 2026, returning to the top 10 and re-establishing himself as one of the leading players on tour. The Russian will now look to make a third straight quarter-final in the Spanish capital.

Meanwhile, Cobolli remains one of the flashiest players on tour - he's been pretty average for most of the year, but has peaked at a pair of ATP 500 tournaments in Acapulco and Munich to improve his ranking to No. 13 and on the cusp of a top 10 breakthrough.

However, Cobolli's record against the top 10 can't be ignored - the Italian is a shocking 2-17 and one of those wins was via retirement. Medvedev - when he's in the mood - is so tough to break down and so far, Cobolli just hasn't had the rally tolerance to hang with him, losing both previous meetings in routine straight sets.

Medvedev is no slouch on clay - he's won the Rome title before and is a two-time previous quarter-finalist in Madrid - I'm backing the World No. 10 to prevail at even money.

Medvedev vs Cobolli Stats & Trends

Medvedev has won 21 of his 27 matches in 2026
Medvedev has won his last two Madrid R16 matches
Cobolli has lost 17 of his 19 matches vs top 10 players - with one win coming via retirement
Medvedev has won both previous meetings between the pair in straight sets
Cobolli is 0-2 in Masters 1000 R16 matches, with both defeats coming vs top 10 players

Medvedev vs Cobolli Head To Head

Medvedev leads 2-0, winning both of their 2024 encounters in straights.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2024	Daniil Medvedev	Beijing	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Hard	6–2, 6–4
2024	Daniil Medvedev	US Open	Round of 32	Outdoor Hard	6–3, 6–4, 6–3

Daniil Medvedev Form Analysis

2026 Record: 21-6
ATP Madrid Record: 10-6
Current Ranking: No. 10
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

It's been an encouraging start to the season for Medvedev, who has returned to the top 10 and collected two more ATP titles.

Medvedev took home the silverware in Brisbane and Dubai across the opening two months before beating Carlos Alcaraz on his way to the final at Indian Wells, where he went down in two tiebreaks to Jannik Sinner.

The Russian has slipped back into some old habits in recent times, losing his second match at Miami to Fran Cerundolo before suffering a crushing 6-0 6-0 defeat to Matteo Berrettini in his Monte Carlo opener.

In desperate need of a spark in Madrid, Medvedev has played some solid tennis to make the R16, edging out the dangerous Fabian Marozsan in three sets before a 6-3 6-2 victory over young gun Nicolai Budkov Kjaer.

Flavio Cobolli Form Analysis

2026 Record: 16-9
ATP Madrid Record: 6-2
Current Ranking: No. 13
Career-High Ranking: No. 13 (March 2026)

It's been a rollercoaster season for Cobolli - he either goes deep into fairly big tournaments or suffers first or second round exits.

Indeed, nine of his 16 victories have come across two ATP 500 tournaments in Acapulco (where he won the title) and Munich (reached the final).

Cobolli also made the semi-finals in Delray Beach, but apart from that, there hasn't been much to write home about.

But perhaps the Italian is ready for another deep run, this time at a Masters 1000 tournament for the first time in Madrid? Cobolli hasn't really been tested, but has come through Ugo Carabelli and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo to make the R16.