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Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Kostyuk to win first WTA 1000 title in Madrid final
- Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk predictions for Saturday's WTA Madrid final
- Kostyuk in career-best form with a 17-1 record vs players outside the top three in 2026
- Andreeva remains in questionable form, going 10-10 in last 20 matches vs top 25
- The match is scheduled to start around 2.00am AEST on Sunday May 3
Expired
Marta Kostyuk (Photo by Getty Images)
Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
It's set to be a thrilling final showdown at the WTA Madrid Open as Mirra Andreeva and Marta Kostyuk square off for the title on Saturday in the Spanish capital.
Andreeva will be aiming for her third WTA 1000 title after lifting the Dubai and Indian Wells trophies at the start of last year. It's been a bit of a struggle since for the 19-year-old, but Andreeva finds herself back in a big final - and she's got an excellent record in title matches throughout her career.
However, the Russian has certainly benefitted from a favourable draw, not facing a single player ranked above No. 25 in the world. Still hard to gauge if Andreeva is truly back.
Meanwhile, Kostyuk has been supremely impressive in her run to the Madrid final, taking out the likes of Jessica Pegula and Linda Noskova, dropping just one set along the way. The Ukrainian has been on fire all season, with three of her four defeats coming against Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina. It's clearly taking elite performances to beat her at the moment.
Does Andreeva have that kind of display in her right now? I'm not sure - she's still searching for her best form and this is the kind of big occasion where she has struggled mentally in recent times. Kostyuk always lifts against Russian opponents and has been quietly putting together a stellar year - I've got the feeling this is her time to shine. Backing Kostyuk with a +2.5 start and to prevail in three.
Andreeva vs Kostyuk Stats & Trends
- Kostyuk has a 17-1 record vs players outside of the top three this season
- Andreeva has a 10-10 record in her last 20 matches vs top 25 players
- Kostyuk has won her last five matches vs Russian opponents
- Andreeva is 0-2 vs Ukrainan players in 2026
- Kostyuk has won her last four matches vs top 10 players other than Sabalenka & Rybakina
- Kostyuk is on an 11-match winning streak at all levels
Andreeva vs Kostyuk Head To Head
Kostyuk leads 1-0, winning their Brisbane quarter-final earlier this year in straight sets.
| Year | Winner | Score | Event | Round | Surface |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Marta Kostyuk | 7–6, 6–3 | Brisbane | Quarterfinal | Hard |
Mirra Andreeva Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 26-7
- WTA Madrid Record: 15-3
- Current Ranking: No. 8
- Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (July 2025)
After capturing major WTA 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells last year, Andreeva found it difficult to sustain that level and faded out of contention for much of the remainder of the 2025 season.
That dip looks less concerning when viewed in context- she just turned 19 earlier this week and expectations have quickly escalated given her early success on tour.
A stretch of struggles in closing matches followed, with a 1-7 record in quarter-finals from Madrid 2025 through to Dubai earlier this year, but there are clear signs of a resurgence on European clay.
Since returning to the surface, Andreeva has gone 12-1, highlighted by a title run in Linz and a semi-final appearance in Stuttgart, where she was beaten by Elena Rybakina.
Andreeva has taken advantage of a good draw in Madrid where she's yet to face a top 20 player, taking care of three Hungarians across her opening three matches (Panna Udvardy, Dalma Galfi and Anna Bondar) before toppling Leylah Fernandez and Hailey Baptiste, saving two set points in the latter during a 6-4 7-6(8) semi-final victory.
Marta Kostyuk Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 17-4
- WTA Madrid Record: 12-7
- Current Ranking: No. 23
- Career-High Ranking: No. 16 (2024)
Kostyuk has low-key put together one of the best seasons of any player on tour and would crack the top 15 for the first time if she can land a maiden WTA 1000 title in Madrid.
Still just 23 years of age, Kostyuk has only suffered one defeat this year to a player not named Sabalenka or Rybakina - and that loss came 7-6 in the deciding set at the Australian Open after she got injured earlier in the match against Elsa Jacquemot.
That injury sidelined Kostyuk for the better part of six weeks, with the Ukrainian returning in March, running into Rybakina early at both Indian Wells and Miami.
However, Kostyuk hasn't tasted defeat since, winning her second WTA title in Rouen before surging to the final here in Madrid, taking out the likes of fifth seed Jess Pegula and 13th seed Linda Noskova in straight sets.
Kostyuk then held firm in a topsy-turvy semi-final against lucky loser Anastasia Potapova, prevailing 6-2 1-6 6-1.
Andreeva vs Kostyuk Live Stream
Watch and bet on Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk live tennis from Madrid.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > WTA Madrid with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
Kostyuk is tipped to cover a +2.5 start, with value on the Ukrainian prevailing in three.
Kostyuk +2.5
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Kostyuk 2-1
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