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Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Berrettini targets third straight win over Zverev
The upcoming match between Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini at Indian Wells is highly anticipated. Zverev enters the tournament with concerns about his form, while Berrettini, overcoming injury setbacks, seeks a confidence-boosting victory. Berrettini has won the last two matches against Zverev and hopes to leverage this momentum on the slow hardcourt, which suits his playing style. Although Zverev leads their head-to-head record, Berrettini's recent successes and the current odds offer a favorable outlook for an upset.
- Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini predictions for Friday's ATP Indian Wells R2
- Berrettini has won his last two meetings with Zverev - good value for the upset here
- Zverev has only won one match since the AO, down on confidence & never played his best at IW
- Tiebreaks have been common in Zverev matches lately & recent meetings
- The match is scheduled to start at 6.00am AEDT on Saturday March 7
Expired
Matteo Berrettini (Photo by Getty Images)
Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
A blockbuster showdown awaits in the second round of Indian Wells on Friday as fourth seed Alexander Zverev comes up against former top 10 star Matteo Berrettini.
Zverev remains in questionable form coming into this tournament - he was last seen losing in the second round of Acapulco to Miomir Kecmanovic, while he's never performed at his best at Indian Wells, failing to go beyond the quarter-finals.
Berrettini meanwhile has seen his career stagnate after countless injuries. However, the former World No. 6 remains a destructive force on his day and this could be the marquee match he needs to regain some confidence and get going again in the right direction.
The Italian has beaten Zverev three times over the course of his career, so he certainly won't be intimidated. A slow hardcourt also isn't the worst conditions for him. Zverev at $1.24 just cannot be backed and I don't trust the fourth seed to cover or win in straights for any sort of even money value. I don't mind at least one tiebreak, but give me Berrettini to win at least one set and the big odds on offer for the Italian to pull off the upset in three.
Zverev vs Berrettini Stats & Trends
- Zverev has lost five times at Indian Wells to players ranked 39 or lower
- Berrettini has won his last two meetings with Zverev
- Berrettini has won his last four matches vs German opponents
- Zverev has only won one match since his heartbreaking AO semi-final defeat to Alcaraz
- Three of the last four meetings have seen 1+ tiebreak, with the one miss going to 7-5
- Berrettini has seen 1+ tiebreak in three of his last four Indian Wells matches
- Zverev has seen 1+ tiebreak in six of his last 10 Indian Wells matches
- Zverev has played a total of seven tiebreaks in his last four matches
Zverev vs Berrettini Head To Head
Zverev leads 4-3, but Berrettini has won the last two encounters, including most-recent on the clay of Monte Carlo 2025.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Matteo Berrettini | ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo | Round of 32 | Outdoor Clay | 2–6, 6–3, 7–5 |
| 2023 | Matteo Berrettini | Wimbledon | Round of 32 | Outdoor Grass | 6–3, 7–6(4), 7–6(5) |
| 2021 | Alexander Zverev | Nitto ATP Finals | Round Robin | Indoor Hard | 7–6(7), 1–0 RET |
| 2021 | Alexander Zverev | ATP Masters 1000 Madrid | Final | Outdoor Clay | 6–7(8), 6–4, 6–3 |
| 2019 | Alexander Zverev | ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai | Semifinal | Outdoor Hard | 6–3, 6–4 |
| 2019 | Matteo Berrettini | ATP Masters 1000 Rome | Round of 32 | Outdoor Clay | 7–5, 7–5 |
| 2018 | Alexander Zverev | ATP Masters 1000 Rome | Round of 32 | Outdoor Clay | 7–5, 6–2 |
Alexander Zverev Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 7-3
- ATP Indian Wells Record: 13-9
- Current Ranking: No. 4
- Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (2022)
There's valid concern that Zverev may have missed his window to win a Grand Slam and hit the No. 1 ranking, with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz eclipsing him after the Big Four domination.
Alcaraz once again denied Zverev Grand Slam glory at the Australian Open, recovering from cramps and a 5-3 deficit in the fifth set to prevail in the semi-finals.
Zverev didn't play for almost a month, returning in Acapulco a couple of weeks ago - but it wasn't a successful tournament.
The German beat Corentin Moutet but suffered a second round upset loss to Miomir Kecmanovic, going down in a deciding-set tiebreak.
Matteo Berrettini Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 4-3
- ATP Indian Wells Record: 5-6
- Current Ranking: No. 66
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2022)
It's been setback after setback for Berrettini as far as injuries go over the last few years, with his ranking tumbling outside of the top 60 coming into Indian Wells.
The Italian has been back on tour again for a while now, but he's yet to rediscover the sort of form that saw him make Grand Slam finals and crack the top 10.
Berrettini played the Golden Swing in South America last month, but there wasn't any real standout result, making the quarter-finals in Rio, second round in Buenos Aires and suffering a first round exit in Santiago to Emilio Nava.
However, Berrettini registered a confidence-boosting win in his Indian Wells opener, coming from a set down to prevail 4-6 7-5 7-5 in dramatic circumstances over Adrian Mannarino, cramping during the final point of the match before collapsing and being unable to move for 5 minutes after match point.
“I fought really hard, until the very last point,” Berrettini said post-match.
“At the beginning of the third [set], I started to feel a little bit of cramping. I was little bit surprised at the beginning but then I remembered that I was sick until three days ago, so I was like, ‘Okay, it’s normal’."
Zverev vs Berrettini Live Stream
Watch and bet on Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini live tennis from Indian Wells.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Indian Wells with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
Berrettini looks good value to pull off a third straight win over Zverev in a match that sees at least one tiebreak.
Over 0.5
Total Tiebreaks
$1.91 - 3 Units
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Berrettini
To Win A Set
$2.11 - 1 Unit
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Berrettini 2-1
Set Betting
$7.75 - 1 Unit
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