Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Berrettini targets third straight win over Zverev

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 06 Mar 2026 05:07

Andrew Hendrie 06 Mar 2026

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Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini predictions for Friday's ATP Indian Wells R2
Berrettini has won his last two meetings with Zverev - good value for the upset here
Zverev has only won one match since the AO, down on confidence & never played his best at IW
Tiebreaks have been common in Zverev matches lately & recent meetings
The match is scheduled to start at 6.00am AEDT on Saturday March 7

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Matteo Berrettini (Photo by Getty Images)

Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

A blockbuster showdown awaits in the second round of Indian Wells on Friday as fourth seed Alexander Zverev comes up against former top 10 star Matteo Berrettini.

Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Zverev vs Berrettini Stats & Trends
Zverev vs Berrettini Head To Head
Alexander Zverev Form Analysis
Matteo Berrettini Form Analysis
Zverev vs Berrettini Live Stream

Zverev remains in questionable form coming into this tournament - he was last seen losing in the second round of Acapulco to Miomir Kecmanovic, while he's never performed at his best at Indian Wells, failing to go beyond the quarter-finals.

Berrettini meanwhile has seen his career stagnate after countless injuries. However, the former World No. 6 remains a destructive force on his day and this could be the marquee match he needs to regain some confidence and get going again in the right direction.

The Italian has beaten Zverev three times over the course of his career, so he certainly won't be intimidated. A slow hardcourt also isn't the worst conditions for him. Zverev at $1.24 just cannot be backed and I don't trust the fourth seed to cover or win in straights for any sort of even money value. I don't mind at least one tiebreak, but give me Berrettini to win at least one set and the big odds on offer for the Italian to pull off the upset in three.

Zverev vs Berrettini Stats & Trends

Zverev has lost five times at Indian Wells to players ranked 39 or lower
Berrettini has won his last two meetings with Zverev
Berrettini has won his last four matches vs German opponents
Zverev has only won one match since his heartbreaking AO semi-final defeat to Alcaraz
Three of the last four meetings have seen 1+ tiebreak, with the one miss going to 7-5
Berrettini has seen 1+ tiebreak in three of his last four Indian Wells matches
Zverev has seen 1+ tiebreak in six of his last 10 Indian Wells matches
Zverev has played a total of seven tiebreaks in his last four matches

Zverev vs Berrettini Head To Head

Zverev leads 4-3, but Berrettini has won the last two encounters, including most-recent on the clay of Monte Carlo 2025.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2025	Matteo Berrettini	ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo	Round of 32	Outdoor Clay	2–6, 6–3, 7–5
2023	Matteo Berrettini	Wimbledon	Round of 32	Outdoor Grass	6–3, 7–6(4), 7–6(5)
2021	Alexander Zverev	Nitto ATP Finals	Round Robin	Indoor Hard	7–6(7), 1–0 RET
2021	Alexander Zverev	ATP Masters 1000 Madrid	Final	Outdoor Clay	6–7(8), 6–4, 6–3
2019	Alexander Zverev	ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai	Semifinal	Outdoor Hard	6–3, 6–4
2019	Matteo Berrettini	ATP Masters 1000 Rome	Round of 32	Outdoor Clay	7–5, 7–5
2018	Alexander Zverev	ATP Masters 1000 Rome	Round of 32	Outdoor Clay	7–5, 6–2

Alexander Zverev Form Analysis

2026 Record: 7-3
ATP Indian Wells Record: 13-9
Current Ranking: No. 4
Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (2022)

There's valid concern that Zverev may have missed his window to win a Grand Slam and hit the No. 1 ranking, with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz eclipsing him after the Big Four domination.

Alcaraz once again denied Zverev Grand Slam glory at the Australian Open, recovering from cramps and a 5-3 deficit in the fifth set to prevail in the semi-finals.

Zverev didn't play for almost a month, returning in Acapulco a couple of weeks ago - but it wasn't a successful tournament.

The German beat Corentin Moutet but suffered a second round upset loss to Miomir Kecmanovic, going down in a deciding-set tiebreak.

Matteo Berrettini Form Analysis

2026 Record: 4-3
ATP Indian Wells Record: 5-6
Current Ranking: No. 66
Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2022)

It's been setback after setback for Berrettini as far as injuries go over the last few years, with his ranking tumbling outside of the top 60 coming into Indian Wells.

The Italian has been back on tour again for a while now, but he's yet to rediscover the sort of form that saw him make Grand Slam finals and crack the top 10.

Berrettini played the Golden Swing in South America last month, but there wasn't any real standout result, making the quarter-finals in Rio, second round in Buenos Aires and suffering a first round exit in Santiago to Emilio Nava.

However, Berrettini registered a confidence-boosting win in his Indian Wells opener, coming from a set down to prevail 4-6 7-5 7-5 in dramatic circumstances over Adrian Mannarino, cramping during the final point of the match before collapsing and being unable to move for 5 minutes after match point.

“I fought really hard, until the very last point,” Berrettini said post-match.

“At the beginning of the third [set], I started to feel a little bit of cramping. I was little bit surprised at the beginning but then I remembered that I was sick until three days ago, so I was like, ‘Okay, it’s normal’."