Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon targeting first ATP Finals win

Currently 0-4 at the ATP Finals, de Minaur won't have a better chance to claim an elusive victory at the year-end championships. Musetti is absolutely cooked following his efforts to qualify for the ATP Finals, which saw him grind through an energy-sapping week in Athens before going down to Novak Djokovic in the final. Ultimately, it was all for nothing as Djokovic pulled out of Turin, meaning Musetti would have qualified without competing in Athens. It appears as that sequence of events has completely shot Musetti's chances of doing any damage in Turin after he was upstaged in straight sets by an out-of-form Taylor Fritz in his opening match.

De Minaur had his chances in his opening match against Carlos Alcaraz, but couldn't capitalise on a 5-3 lead in the opening set tiebreak, eventually going down in straights. The Aussie's struggles against the game's elite is well documented - he's 10-37 vs players currently in the ATP Finals draw. However, this is the first time he'll be facing a player ranked below him at the year-end finals, while Musetti is a terrible 3-15 vs top 10 opponents on hardcourt. This has to be the time for Demon to score himself a confidence-boosting victory in a big tournament against a top 10 player.

Musetti leads 3-1, but all of his wins have come on natural surfaces. De Minaur won their first clash on hardcourt back in 2022, but the Italian has dominated on clay and grass since, winning the most-recent encounter 6-4 6-2 in Madrid earlier this year.

De Minaur heads into this showdown with a 55-22 record for the season, qualifying for the ATP Finals for the second year running, establishing himself inside the top 10 by repeatedly beating those ranked below him.

It's been another remarkably consistent year for de Minaur - he secured his 10th career title in Washington, finished runner-up in Rotterdam, made the semi-finals of Monte Carlo and two further Grand Slam quarter-finals at the Australian Open and US Open.

The Aussie has also played well indoors, registering a 13-5 record in these conditions, including the aforementioned Rotterdam final, along with a semi-final run in Vienna and quarter-final finish at the recent Paris Masters.

However, there's no escaping de Minaur's horrible record against the game's elite - he's lost his last 16 matches against top 10 players dating back to Roland Garros 2024. It goes without saying he will need to find a way to do damage against the very best if he is to make any sort of impact at the ATP Finals.

De Minaur began his campaign against Alcaraz, but when push came to shove, he once again crumbled, blowing a chance to claim the opening set when he led 5-3 in the tiebreak, ultimately succumbing 6-7 2-6 to go 0-4 in Turin.

As it turned out, Musetti didn't need to go through any of those energy-sapping contests last week, with Djokovic's withdrawal propelling him into the ATP Finals field. The 23-year-old was noticeably fatigued in a 6-3 6-4 loss to Fritz in his opening match and now must back up without a day's rest for this clash with de Minaur.