Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Close quarter-final expected in Miami

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 25 Mar 2026 05:15

Andrew Hendrie 25 Mar 2026

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Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils predictions for Wednesday's ATP Miami quarter-final
Both players in great form - Over 22.5 games expected
Paul is 4-0 in Masters 1000 quarter-finals & Fils is 0-4 - American tipped to cover
The match is scheduled to start around 11.30am AEDT on Thursday March 26

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Tommy Paul (Photo by Getty Images)

Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

It's shaping as a cracking Miami Masters quarter-final as Tommy Paul and Arthur Fils square off on Wednesday night.

Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Paul vs Fils Stats & Trends
Paul vs Fils Head To Head
Tommy Paul Form Analysis
Arthur Fils Form Analysis
Paul vs Fils Live Stream

It might not be the quarter-final most were expecting, but I personally can't wait for this clash as the in-form Fils and resurgent Paul collide. I thought this quarter was there for the taking pre-tournament and backed Paul to emerge at $6.80, so I've got to stick with the American - but this is as close to a 50-50 contest you could imagine.

Fils has wasted no time in getting back to his best tennis after a long injury layoff - he's gone 10-0 vs players outside the top 10 in 2026, while Paul has also shrugged off some niggling injury concerns that hindered him at stages last year and is back playing some great tennis.

This has three sets written all over it, so I'm backing Over 22.5 games, which also covers a close two-setter. With Paul being the slight underdog, it also makes sense to take the American with a +1.5 games start. Paul also has more experience at this stage of a Masters 1000 - in an unlikely stat, he's actually undefeated in four previous quarter-final appearances.

Paul vs Fils Stats & Trends

Paul is 4-0 in Masters 1000 quarter-finals
All four of those matches saw Over 22.5 games
The only previous meeting between the pair saw Over 22.5 games
Paul has seen Over 22.5 games in two of his last three matches
Fils is 10-0 vs players outside the top 10 in 2026
Fils is 0-4 in Masters 1000 quarter-finals

Paul vs Fils Head To Head

Paul leads 1-0, winning their only previous clash in three sets at the 2023 Shanghai Masters.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2023	Tommy Paul	ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai	Round of 32	Outdoor Hard	6–4, 6–7(7), 6–4

Tommy Paul Form Analysis

2026 Record: 15-6
ATP Miami Record: 8-6
Current Ranking: No. 23
Career-High Ranking: No. 8 (June 2025)

Paul took a bit of a tumble down the rankings last year, but I'd be very surprised if he isn't knocking on the door of the top 15/10 by the time the American summer rolls around.

It's been a promising start to the season for Paul, headlined by a fourth round finish at the Australian Open and runner-up showing in Delray Beach.

The American was unlucky to run into a red-hot Joao Fonseca early in Indian Wells, but he's made up for lost ground in Miami to reach a first ever quarter-final in the 305.

Paul was made to work hard in three-set victories over Adrian Mannarino and Raphael Collignon in his opening two matches before crushing Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-1 6-3 in the R16 to reach his fifth Masters 1000 quarter-final.

Arthur Fils Form Analysis

2026 Record: 12-4
ATP Miami Record: 6-2
Current Ranking: No. 31
Career-High Ranking: No. 14 (April 2025)

It's been an outstanding comeback from a back injury for Fils and with basically no points to defend after Roland Garros, I'm expecting the supremely talented Frenchman to crack the top 10 towards the end of the year.

Fils has won 12 of his 16 matches since returning to tour this season - and all four of those defeats came against top 10 players.

The 21-year-old has advanced into his third straight quarter-final in Miami after finishing runner-up in Doha and making the last eight at Indian Wells.

Fils eased past wildcard Darwin Blanch before absolutely crushing Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-0 6-1 in just 55 minutes. The Frenchman kept the ball rolling with a hard-fought 6-4 6-7(4) 6-4 victory over Shanghai Masters champion Valentin Vacherot to reach back-to-back Miami quarter-finals.