Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rybakina to extend winning run over Pegula

Andrew Hendrie

Editor

Last updated: Tue 24 Mar 2026 22:56

Andrew Hendrie 24 Mar 2026

Share this article

Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula predictions for Wednesday's WTA Miami quarter-final
Both players in great form, quality and close quarter-final expected
Rybakina has won both meetings in 2026 between the pair - tipped to come out on top again
The match is scheduled to start around 4.00am AEDT on Thursday March 26

Expired

Elena Rybakina (Photo by Getty Images)

Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Familiar foes Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula square off for a place in the Miami Open semi-finals on Wednesday.

Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Rybakina vs Pegula Stats & Trends
Rybakina vs Pegula Head To Head
Elena Rybakina Form Analysis
Jessica Pegula Form Analysis
Rybakina vs Pegula Live Stream

This will be the fourth meeting between the pair since the end of last season, with Rybakina winning the last three at the WTA Finals, Australian Open and last week in Indian Wells. Rybakina has gone to another level over the last six months, hitting a career-high ranking of No. 2 and doesn't look like slowing down anytime soon.

However, Pegula is also operating at a very high level herself - the American's consistency is spectacular, having made the semi-finals of every tournament she's contested dating back to September - apart from last week's quarter-final exit to Rybakina in the desert.

It promises to be a high quality match, but you can't back against Rybakina on current form and recent H2H dominance. That being said, Pegula loves Miami - it's her home base and she's made the quarter-finals in her last five appearances. The conditions are a bit faster and the ball skids lower, which favours her game style. Probably not enough to win, but Pegula can extend this Over 22.5 games.

"Definitely I need to serve well," Rybakina said. "That's my biggest weapon and try to be fresh, move well, because here it's a little bit faster than last match we played in Indian Wells. The ball doesn't bounce as much. So, it's a bit challenging, I would say, but, I will try to do my best and hopefully win this match."

Rybakina vs Pegula Stats & Trends

Rybakina has won 20 of her 24 matches this season
Rybakina has won 12 of her last 13 matches vs top 10 players
Rybakina has won the last three meetings at tour-level between the pair
Pegula has a 7-12 record vs top two opponents
Pegula has seen Over 22.5 games in four of her last five matches vs top two opponents
Pegula has seen Over 22.5 games in seven of her last 10 quarter-finals
Four of the last six meetings have produced Over 22.5 games

Rybakina vs Pegula Head To Head

Rybakina leads 5-3, including winning both meetings so far in 2026.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2026	Indian Wells	Hard	Quarterfinal	Elena Rybakina	6–1, 7–6(4)
2026	Australian Open	Hard	Semifinal	Elena Rybakina	6–3, 7–6(7)
2025	WTA Finals (Saudi Arabia)	Hard	Semifinal	Elena Rybakina	4–6, 6–4, 6–3
2023	WTA Finals (Mexico)	Hard	Round Robin	Jessica Pegula	7–5, 6–2
2023	Miami	Hard	Semifinal	Elena Rybakina	7–6(3), 6–4
2022	Guadalajara	Hard	Round of 32	Elena Rybakina	6–2, 3–6, 7–6(8)
2022	Miami	Hard	Round of 32	Jessica Pegula	6–3, 6–4

Elena Rybakina Form Analysis

2026 Record: 20-4
WTA Miami Record: 15-5
Current Ranking: No. 2
Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (March 2026)

Rybakina has taken her game to the next level and it's clear herself and Aryna Sabalenka are a cut above the rest of the tour right now.

After taking out the WTA Finals at the end of 2025, Rybakina captured her second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open - defeating Sabalenka in the final.

The Kazakh suffered from illness during the Middle East swing, but bounced back with a run to the final in Indian Wells last week - going down in three to Sabalenka in a quality final.

A two-time runner-up in Miami, Rybakina is once again playing well in the 305, advancing to the quarter-finals without dropping more than four games in a set, easing past Yulia Putintseva, Marta Kostyuk and Talia Gibson.

Rybakina has only been broken once all tournament, saving six of seven break points.

Jessica Pegula Form Analysis

2026 Record: 19-3
WTA Miami Record: 23-6
Current Ranking: No. 5
Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2022)

It's been a brilliant season so far for Pegula - she's won 19 of her 22 matches and broke back into the world's top five.

After back-to-back semi-finals in Brisbane and the Australian Open to start the year, Pegula surged to the WTA 1000 title in Dubai last month, defeating Elina Svitolina in the final.

Pegula's semi-final streak was snapped by Rybakina in the Indian Wells quarter-finals and now she will have a chance at revenge at the same stage in Miami.

The American has surged into her fifth straight Miami Open quarter-final without dropping a set, cruising past Francesca Jones, Leylah Fernandez and Jaqueline Cristian.