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Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks Tips - Defensive struggle expected in Vegas as Panthers set out to defend title
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- Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 1 NRL game
- Kick off is at 3:30 PM at Allegiant Stadium
- Penrith begins NRL 2025 against Cronulla in Las Vegas, predicted to win.
- Panthers' strong defense keeps opponents to low scores, despite recent Round 1 struggles.
- Cronulla struggles against top defenses; Addin Fonua-Blake a key player for potential first try.
Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction
Penrith will kick off their 2025 campaign and premiership defence in style with a short margin of victory over the Cronulla Sharks in Las Vegas this Sunday.
The Panthers have dominated this matchup in recent years and it is my expectation that the domination will continue even with the game being played in the US. The defining point is the defensive structures of Penrith that were able to keep opponents to a league low 15.4pts per game last season.
Cronulla finished as the 4th best defensive team last year but struggled to put points past the top 3 teams in the 6 games played averaging just 13.3 pts per game. They looked stagnant and without creativity when pressured, especially close to the line.
Penrith have not had success in their 2 most recent round 1 clashes while Cronulla have won just 1 of their last 3. Preparation will be key with teams having a big schedule travelling over to Las Vegas, I put my trust in the experience and leadership at Penrith to get past that hurdle.
The defensive trends point to a low Game Total which is strengthened by the Sharks inability last season to score against top defensive teams. I am also taking Cronulla Under their Team Total but cannot pass up an opportunity to take AFB as first try scorer for his new club!
- Penrith are 8-2 straight up and ATS against Cronulla in their last 10 games.
- 4 of the last 5 games between these teams have gone Under the Game Total.
- Paul Alamoti has scored 3 tries in his last 2 games, Cronulla allowed 7 tries in last 5 games to right wingers.
- Addin Fonua-Blake scored 8 tries last season, 2 as first tryscorer and 2 as second.
Head to Head
Penrith dominate the Head to Head record between these teams dating back to the 2019 season. Last year they won the single regular season matchup 42-0 then beat the Sharks 26-6 in the Preliminary Final.
Cronulla’s most recent win came in the 2021 season and was only the second time in the last 10 games they have beaten the 4 time premiers.
4 of the last 5 matchups have gone Under the Game Total with Penrith having a 3-2 ATS record in those 5 games.
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
Penrith secured their 4th straight premiership last season defeating the Melbourne Storm 14-6 in the Grand Final, the team that last beat them in a Grand Final in 2020.
Despite a raft of injuries to their players throughout the season, especially Nathan Cleary who missed 14 games in 2024, the Panthers still secured a top 4 spot and were the best team on the park when the time came.
The team averaged the most run metres last year at 1594m per game while featuring in the top 4 for Linebreaks, Tackle Busts and Tackles in Opposition 20m. They have lost some experience and poise with Jarome Luai, James Fisher-Harris and Sunia Turuva all leaving in the off-season.
The Panthers allowed an average of just 16.2 pts per game to opponents as the home team in 2024.
2024 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13-14 | 11-16 | 12-6 | 8-1 |
Penrith Panthers Team News
Brian To’o has not been able to recover from injury in time to take his place in the team for round 1 with Paul Alamoti taking his spot on the wing and Luke Garner going to centre. Kiwi prodigy Casey McLean is the new winger with Sunia Turuva leaving for the Tigers.
Jack Cole is the starting five-eighth with Jarome Luai also departing for the Tigers, new recruit Blaize Talagi is in the reserves.
Lindsay Smith has big shoes to fill in the front row with James Fisher-Harris now with the Warriors, Scott Sorensen keeps his backrow spot over Isaiah Papali’i.
Penrith Panthers Team List
1. Dylan Edwards
2. Casey McLean
3. Izack Tago
4. Luke Garner
5. Paul Alamoti
6. Jack Cole
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Mitch Kenny
10. Lindsay Smith
11. Scott Sorensen
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14. Daine Laurie
15. Isaiah Papali'i
16. Matthew Eisenhuth
17. Luron Patea
Reserves
18. Brad Schneider
19. Mavrik Geyer
20. Jesse McLean
21. Luke Sommerton
22. Blaize Talagi
Cronulla Sharks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
The Sharks bowed out of the finals race last season in the prelim against this very Panthers team 26-6. Apart from a stretch of 1 win in 6 games through the middle portion of the season they were one of the in-form teams of the NRL in 2024 finishing 4th on points differential.
They were graced with a favourable schedule last season having only 9 games against teams that finished in the top 8, they came away with a 6-3 record in those games.
Cronulla had to go without their main playmaker in Nicho Hynes for 9 and a half games in 2024 but they were able to weather the storm with players like Braydon Trindall, Will Kennedy and Blayke Brailey all stepping up.
2024 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-11 | 14-13 | 8-6 | 9-4 |
Cronulla Sharks Team News
Sione Katoa will be out for a good chunk of the season with Sam Stonestreet getting first dibs on the wing position. Addin Fonua-Blake is the other addition to a relatively similar lineup from 2024.
Daniel Atkinson will come off the bench as the utility, Toby Rudolf is serving a one match suspension and misses this game.
Cronulla Sharks Team List
1. Will Kennedy
2. Sam Stonestreet
3. Jesse Ramien
4. Kayal Iro
5. Ronaldo Mulitalo
6. Braydon Trindall
7. Nicho Hynes
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Blayke Brailey
10. Oregon Kaufusi
11. Briton Nikora
12. Teig Wilton
13. Cameron McInnes
Interchange
14. Daniel Atkinson
15. Sifa Talakai
16. Braden Hamlin-Uele
17. Tom Hazelton
Reserves
18. Tuku Hau Tapuha
19. Mawene Hiroti
20. Billy Burns
21. Jayden Berrell
22. Hohepa Puru
Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks NRL 2025 Round 1 FAQ’s
How to watch Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks NRL 2025 Round 1?
You can watch the Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks NRL 2025 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks NRL 2025 Round 1?
To buy tickets to the Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks NRL 2025 Round 1 game check the NRL website or the official Penrith Panthers site.
Verdict
The defensive trends point to a low Game Total which is strengthened by the Sharks inability last season to score against top defensive teams. I am also taking Cronulla Under their Team Total but cannot pass up an opportunity to take AFB as first try scorer for his new club!
Under 40.5
Game Total
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