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Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 23 Tips - Broncos to break regular season hoodoo vs Storm

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Tue 05 Aug 2025 13:26

Ryan Tucker 05 Aug 2025

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Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 23 NRL game
Kick off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) at AAMI Park
Melbourne Storm face challenge without game manager Jahrome Hughes.
Brisbane Broncos recently achieved a 60-point win, showing strong form.
Prediction favors Broncos; betting on moneyline with game total under suggested.

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 23 Tips

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 23 2025 - Expert Prediction

Melbourne have held a dominance over Brisbane in recent years but it is time to go against the grain. The Broncos are tipped to win this battle and break their regular season hoodoo over the Storm.

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 23 2025 - Expert Prediction
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Cheat Sheet
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
Brisbane Broncos Team News
Brisbane Broncos Team List
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2025 Round 23 FAQ’s

Despite winning 15 straight regular season games against the Broncos, Melbourne are in a spot of bother without their game manager Jahrome Hughes. In the past 1.5 games where he has been missing the Storm have lacked creativity and composure with the ball.

With Brisbane in scintillating form with the footy and coming off a 60 point effort last weekend the prediction is that Melbourne will struggle to score enough points to outlast the Broncos in this battle.

The last 3 matchups played at AAMI Park have been decided by an average of 7.3 points, the Broncos have been close and will finally close the deal this time around.

Take Brisbane on the moneyline with the upset and the Game Total Under. Ezra Mam is a top pick for tryscorer.

Melbourne are 3-3 against current Top 8 opponents this season, Brisbane are 5-3.
The Broncos are ranked 6th for Efficiency Inside 20m, Melbourne’s defence is ranked 11th.
7 of 9 Broncos road games have gone Under the Game Total in 2025.
Ezra Mam scored 2 tries last weekend including the first of the game, Melbourne's right side defence has allowed 51% of all opposition tries this year.

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Cheat Sheet

Storm vs Broncos Rd23 Cheat Sheet

Head to Head

These teams have played 11 regular season matchups and 1 finals game (2023) since the start of the 2019 season. Melbourne hold a dominant 11-0 record in the regular season games while Brisbane were able to snag the finals matchup in 2023.

In fact the last time Brisbane won a regular season matchup against Melbourne was in Rd 25 of 2016 meaning the streak is 15 regular season games for the Storm.

The Game Total has gone over in 9 of 11 meetings since the start of 2019, the average winning margin in these matchups is 24 but only 6 of 11 have gone past 13+. The last 3 games at AAMI Park have been close finishes.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

The Storm snuck away with a 16-10 victory over the Parramatta Eels last weekend as they continue to limp towards finals. Given they have won 2 straight and 9 of their last 10 but without Jahrome Hughes they have looked like a different team, and not for the better.

5 of their last 7 games have all finished with margins of 6 points or less and while they have been experienced and composed enough to go 4-1 in those tight games, it would likely not fill the team with a load of confidence with finals just weeks away.

Melbourne rank 2nd in the league in Opposition Run Metres and 3rd in Opposition Linebreaks.

Melbourne Storm Team News

Trent Loiero is back in the team in the only change from last week’s win. Ativalu Lisati reverts to the bench with Bronson Garlick dropping out.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen

2. Grant Anderson

3. Jack Howarth

4. Nick Meaney

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Tyran Wishart

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Shawn Blore

12. Eli Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Jonah Pezet

15. Ativalu Lisati

16. Tui Kamikamica

17. Joe Chan

Reserves

18. Kane Bradley

19. Bronson Garlick

20. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown

21. Alec MacDonald

22. Lazarus Vaalepu

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis

The Broncos were scintillating in their 60-14 demolition of the South Sydney Rabbitohs last weekend. It was their 2nd 50+ score and 5th 40+ score of the season setting them up for a good run into finals.

The victory sees them in 6th spot on the ladder but with the 4th best points differential thanks to their big wins throughout the season. Reece Walsh rediscovered form with a try and a linebreak to go with 4 linebreak assists and 4 try assists, he also kicked for almost 200 metres in the game.

The Bronx rank 1st in Linebreaks, averaging 6.1 per game and are the 4th best scoring team in the NRL. Defensively they keep opponents to the 3rd lowest Run Metre totals per game.

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Payne Haas is back on deck following an infection in his leg. He replaces Xavier Willison who is out with a broken arm. Jaiyden Hunt replaces Tyson Smoothy on the bench after the utility failed to see any game time last weekend.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Reece Walsh

2. Selwyn Cobbo

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Gehamat Shibasaki

5. Deine Mariner

6. Ezra Mam

7. Adam Reynolds

8. Corey Jensen

9. Ben Hunt

10. Payne Haas

11. Jack Gosiewski

12. Jordan Riki

13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

14. Billy Walters

15. Kobe Hetherington

16. Ben Talty

17. Jaiyden Hunt

Reserves

18. Tyson Smoothy

19. Jesse Arthars

20. Cory Paix

21. Josiah Karapani

22. Va'a Semu

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2025 Round 23 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2025 Round 23?

You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2025 Round 23 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2025 Round 23?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2025 Round 23 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

Take Brisbane on the moneyline with the upset and the Game Total Under. Ezra Mam is a top pick for tryscorer.

Brisbane Broncos

Moneyline

$2.55 - 3 Units

Pandabet

It's Black & White

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Under 46.5

Game Total

$1.91 - 2 Units

Use Easyform

The Ultimate Form Guide

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Bet at Playup

Ezra Mam

Anytime Tryscorer

$3.35 - 1 Unit

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Ezra Mam

First Tryscorer

$19.00 - 1 Unit

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