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Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks Tips - Hawks devour wounded Swans in the AFL opener

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Fri 07 Mar 2025 07:14

Jeremy Darke 07 Mar 2025

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Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Friday’s Opening Round AFL game
The game will be played at SCG, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEDT)
Sydney Swans face challenges with key players like Errol Gulden out due to injury.
Hawthorn Hawks enter the 2025 season in good health and with strong momentum.

Jez gives you the reasons why the Hawks win this match.

Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks, Opening Round 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Grand Final hangover is going to hit the Swans as hard as a baseball bat to a light post as the Hawks swoop in and attack the wounded Sydney squad and take the first victory of the AFL season.

Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks, Opening Round 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Sydney Swans Team News
Sydney Swans Team List
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Opening Round FAQ’s

The Swannies are in a bit of trouble with 6 Grand Final players ruled out or under question heading into the opening round with no bigger name than Errol Gulden ruled out for over a month. On the flip side the Hawks are as healthy as they can be as they look to roll with the momentum they built in 2024, coming as close as you can come to a Prelim.

The Swans have dominated the Hawks in the past, winning by 40+ in each game over the last 3 years, but this is not the same Hawthorn and their young and tenacious squad that has been bolstered by experience in the backline are going to go on the attack as they look to hit their late season average of 97.1 points per game in this contest.

For the Swans, the workload will increase for both Chad Warner and Issaac Heeney in the absence of Errol Gulden. Warner will start his contract year looking to put in some big performances so expect the star-midfielder to be on the ball and record 25+ disposals on opening day.

Hawthorn won 12 of their final 15 games of the 2024 season including Finals.
Sydney have beaten Hawthorn by 41 points or more in their last 3 meetings.
From round 5 last season, Hawthorn averaged 97.1 points per game.
Chad Warner averaged 23.5 disposals per game in the 2024 season.

Head to Head

Sydney won 118 - 42 over the Hawks in the only meeting in 2024.

The Swans have won 5 of the past six matches with the two teams meeting just once per season.

Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

The Swans will waste no time licking their wounded wings after another embarrassing Grand Final performance where they went down by 60 points on the biggest stage in front of 100, 000 fans at the MCG.

A new year and new challenges will face the Swannies in 2025, with new head coach Dean Cox taking over from longtime servant John Longmire. Cox will face challenges directly with star midfielder Erroll Gulden out for an extended period with a fractured ankle, along with 5 other players that played in the grand final last season ruled out or are pushing to be fit.

The Swans class when fully fit will be tough to match up against just like last season, where they won 13 of their first 14 matches, however, they are not fully fit and they are going to need players like Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney to lift even more of the load.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
13-11	16-8	6-7	8-3

Sydney Swans Team News

The Swans are in trouble to start the season and are going to have to overcame the first phase with Errol Gulden (5+ weeks), Callum Mills (4 weeks), Logan McDonald (5 weeks), Harry Cunningham (4-5 weeks) among others all out for extended periods.

Tom Papley (ankle) and Brodie Grundy (knee) are also tests heading into Friday nights match with the Hawks.

Sydney Swans Team List

B: N.Blakey, L.Melican, S.Wicks

HB: M.Roberts, D.Rampe, B.Paton

C: J.Lloyd, I.Heeney - C, J.McInerney

HF: B.Campbell, T.McCartin, T.Papley

F: W.Hayward, J.Amartey, J.Jordon

FOLL: B.Grundy, Ch.Warner, J.Rowbottom

I/C: O.Florent, T.Adams, A.Sheldrick, Co.Warner, T.Hanily

EMG: P.Ladhams, C.Mitchell, A.Francis

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

The Hawks came from a 0-5 start to the season to play two Finals matches and were within one kick away of the Preliminary Final after going down to Port 75-72.

The Hawks were in a big way unbeatable, winning 14 of their final 18 matches of the season with their intense and pressure footy uncontainable. The young Hawthorn group swarmed as a pack and moved the ball swiftly and efficiently down the field, ranked third in the AFL with a 74.5% disposal efficiency while taking 12.8 marks per game inside 50, ranking fifth in the league.

Some good additions over the offseason will see their backline more stable, with veteran Tom Barrass and Josh Battle giving Hawthorn some experienced heads that will fit right in with their aggressive playing style.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
11-12	11-12	9-8	3-1

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

The Hawks are basically fully fit heading into the 2025 season with the only long-term out is James Blanck who is still recovering from his ACL injury that he suffered last season.

The rest of the Hawthorn squad will likely be ready for the opening match of the season or at the latest Round 1.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: T.Barrass, B.Hardwick, J.Scrimshaw

HB: J.Weddle, J.Impey, J.Battle

C: J.Sicily - C, J.Newcombe, M.D’Ambrosio

HF: C.Nash, H.Morrison, N.Watson

F: J.Ginnivan, M.Chol, W.Day

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Worpel, D.Moore

I/C: F.Maginness, C.Macdonald, S.Frost, C.Mackenzie, K.Amon

EMG: J.Gunston, J.Ward, W.McCabe

Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Opening Round FAQ’s

How to watch Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Opening Round?

You can watch the Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Opening Round game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Opening Round?

To buy tickets to the Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Opening Round game check the AFL website or the official Sydney Swans site.

Verdict

Sydney v Hawthorn

Chad Warner’s 25+ disposals will not be enough for the Swans to hold off the Hawks with Hawthorn kicking over their team total of 84.5 points and winning the match as the underdog.

Hawthorn Hawks

Money Line

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Hawthorn Over 84.5

Team Total

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Chad Warner

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