Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Kostyuk targets China Open upset over Pegula

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 01 Oct 2025 01:29

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Andrew Hendrie 01 Oct 2025

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Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk predictions for Wednesday's WTA Beijing R16 match
Kostyuk has won 11 of her last 14 matches
Kostyuk has made three WTA 1000 quarter-finals in 2025
Pegula hadn't beaten a top 50 player since June before saving three match points vs Raducanu in her previous round
The match is scheduled to start around 11.00pm AEST on Wednesday October 1

Expired

Marta Kostyuk (Photo by Getty Images)

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

The stakes are high in Beijing as Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk both attempt to reach the quarter-finals of the China Open for the first time on Wednesday night.

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Jessica Pegula Form
Marta Kostyuk Form
Live Stream

Both players have experienced wildly up and down seasons - Pegula has won three WTA titles, but had failed to win multiple matches in nine of her last 12 tournaments before arriving in the Chinese capital, while Kostyuk has advanced to three WTA 1000 quarter-finals this season, but was on a six-match losing streak before Washington during the North American hardcourt summer.

This feels like a close contest, which is why I'm leaning towards Kostyuk as the underdog. Pegula has never made the quarter-finals of a Chinese tournament in her career, while she's on borrowed time in Beijing after being forced to save three match points in her previous round against Emma Raducanu. Kostyuk hasn't dropped a set so far in Beijing and has won seven of her last eight matches coming into this contest - I think the value lies with the Ukrainian here.

Head To Head

Pegula leads 3-1, but it's 1-1 in 2025. Kostyuk was a 7-6 6-1 winner in San Diego before Pegula returned serve with a 6-2 6-3 triumph in Miami.

Jessica Pegula Form

Pegula has put together a 44-17 record on the season heading into this clash, but the consistency just hasn't been there, which has seen her drop to No. 7 in the world.

The American has won three titles in Austin, Bad Homburg and Charleston, while she's also finished runner-up in Miami and Adelaide, along with reaching the semi-finals of the recent US Open.

However, on the flip side, Pegula had failed to win back-to-back matches in nine of her last 12 tournaments before Bejing and failed to defeat a top 50 player since June before toppling Raducanu.

It's fair to say Pegula has been well below her best for the last few months, but after easing past Ajla Tomljanovic, saving three match points in a 3-6 7-6(9) 6-0 victory over Raducanu would have given her a lot of confidence.

Marta Kostyuk Form

Kostyuk has registered a 26-18 record on the season, but she's still without a title and arrived in Beijing at No. 28 in the world, 12 spots off her career-high ranking.

The Ukrainian's top 30 ranking is mostly due to some brilliant performances at WTA 1000 level, where she's advanced to quarter-finals in Doha, Madrid and Montreal.

The 23-year-old went on a six-match losing run between Roland Garros and Washington, but she's responded nicely by winning 11 of her last 14 matches - including making the fourth round of the US Open.

Kostyuk played well in Billie Jean Cup to defeat Jessica Bouzas Maneiro of Spain and Elisabetta Cocciaretto of Italy and she's continued her fine form into Beijing, dispatching Ella Seidel and Aliaksandra Sasnovich in straight sets to make the R16.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk live China Open tennis from Beijing.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Beijing with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Jessica Pegula v Marta Kostyuk

Both players have been inconsistent this season, but Kostyuk is the player that is in form right now with 11 wins from her last 14 matches, while she's also beaten Pegula in a night hardcourt match this year in San Diego.

Backing Kostyuk as the underdog at the line and with some value in three sets.