Dally M Medal 2026 Betting Odds - Who will win the Dally M Medal this season?

Nathan Cleary was sitting on top when voting disappeared behind closed doors after Round 12, holding 38 votes ahead of Jackson Ford on 35, Dylan Edwards on 32, Scott Drinkwater on 29 and James Tedesco on 27. Braydon Trindall was next on 23, followed by Haumole Olakau'atu on 22, while Kalyn Ponga sat on 19 and Harry Grant and Jake Clifford had 18 apiece.

Plenty has changed since then. Form, injuries, Origin commitments and suspensions have all played a part, so we've assessed the leading contenders and framed our own hypothetical Dally M Medal market.

Cleary deserves to be the clear favourite after entering the closed section of the count with an already significant advantage over most of his realistic challengers.

The Panthers halfback had accumulated 38 votes by Round 10 and remained on that total when voting went secret after Round 12. He subsequently missed Penrith's Round 13 clash with the Warriors after being rested following State of Origin, reducing the number of opportunities he had to add to his tally.

That is balanced by the quality of his work when he was on the field. Cleary finished the regular season with 22 appearances and recorded 29 try assists, while Penrith won 17 of his 22 matches.

The major consideration is vote-sharing. Edwards entered the secret portion only six points behind his teammate and has enjoyed an outstanding season of his own, meaning there will almost certainly be matches where the pair take points from each other.

Even allowing for that, beginning the final 15 rounds on 38 votes puts Cleary in a commanding position in our projected market.

If Cleary is beaten, his Penrith teammate shapes as one of the most obvious candidates to do it.

Edwards was already third on 32 votes when the leaderboard disappeared, just six behind Cleary. Unlike the Panthers halfback, Edwards also played in Round 13 when Penrith defeated the Warriors 20-18.

His full-season numbers give him every chance of having continued attracting the judges' attention. Edwards played 22 games, scored 12 tries and averaged 216 running metres per appearance, finishing with 4,769 metres for the season.

The obvious problem is Cleary. Two players from the same side competing at the top of the leaderboard means Penrith's available votes are regularly being divided between them, particularly when other Panthers also produce standout performances.

Still, starting the closed period on 32 makes Edwards a genuine threat.

Drinkwater could be the player capable of disrupting a Penrith quinella.

The Cowboys fullback was fourth with 29 points after Round 12 and continued to produce huge attacking numbers across the remainder of the campaign. He finished the season with 25 appearances, 10 tries and 25 try assists while averaging 146 running metres.

His ability to dominate North Queensland's attack is particularly valuable in a Dally M count. Drinkwater is regularly involved in the Cowboys' biggest attacking moments and even delivered a golden-point field goal to secure a win over Melbourne during the second half of the season.

Nine points was a significant gap to Cleary when voting went secret, but Drinkwater's availability and attacking production keep him firmly in contention.

2025 Dally M winner Tedesco knows exactly what it takes to poll heavily in the Dally M and was well positioned on 27 points after the opening 12 rounds.

The Roosters captain finished with 12 tries, 15 try assists, 16 line breaks and an average of 194 running metres across his 19 appearances.

Availability is the major reason we have him behind the leading trio. Tedesco missed three games late in the regular season with an ankle injury before being named to return in Round 26.

That absence reduced his opportunity to collect late-season votes, but his Round 12 starting position means he cannot be dismissed.

Trindall represents one of the most interesting chances outside the leading group.

The Sharks playmaker had 23 votes when the count went secret and subsequently became one of the NRL's leading attacking creators. Despite missing the final month of the regular season after dislocating his shoulder in Round 24, Trindall finished the campaign as the league's leading try-assist provider.

The injury is significant when trying to project his final Dally M total. Missing those late matches eliminated several opportunities to make up the 15-point deficit he faced against Cleary after Round 12.

His form before the injury should have produced further votes, but the gap and games missed leave him needing plenty to fall his way.

Ford is the most difficult player to price.

On the known votes alone, the Warriors forward should be near the top of the market. He was second on 35 points after Round 12 and only three behind Cleary following an outstanding first half of the season.

His Dally M challenge was then devastated by injury. Ford suffered a pectoral tear in Round 16 and ultimately made only 14 regular-season appearances in 2026.

Ford therefore had only a small window to add to his 35 points once voting became secret. He may have collected enough votes in those appearances to remain surprisingly high on the final leaderboard, but it would take an extraordinary set of results for 14 games to be enough to win the Medal.

Suspensions are crucial when constructing a Dally M market because they can completely eliminate an otherwise legitimate contender.

Under the current system, a one-match suspension results in six Dally M points being deducted. Any player suspended for two or more matches during the season becomes ineligible for the Dally M Awards.

That removes Haumole Olakau'atu from our mock market despite the Manly star sitting sixth on 22 points when voting went behind closed doors. Olakau'atu received a two-match suspension arising from State of Origin, making him ineligible under the Dally M suspension criteria.

Everything starts with Cleary's 38-point head start.

He entered the secret portion of voting six points clear of Edwards, nine ahead of Drinkwater, 11 ahead of Tedesco and 15 clear of Trindall. His closest challenger at the time, Ford, then lost the majority of the second half of the season to a pectoral injury.

Edwards appears the biggest threat because he was already within striking distance and remained one of Penrith's most consistent performers. Drinkwater's availability and attacking influence also give him a plausible path from 29 points, while Tedesco and Trindall would require stronger polling through the closed rounds to overcome their respective deficits and games missed. Kalyn Ponga also led the Knights into the finals with a strong back-half of the season, but starting 19 points behind Cleary after R12 means he has a huge hurdle to climb.

Our mock market therefore has Cleary as the $1.50 favourite, with Edwards at $5.00 and Drinkwater at $8.00 forming the main chasing pack ahead of the official count.