ATP Beijing Outright Winner Tips & Predictions - Medvedev backed to continue strong start to Asian swing at China Open

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Tue 29 Sep 2026 06:46

Andrew Hendrie 1 hour ago

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Outright winner betting tips & predictions for the 2026 China Open in Beijing
Zverev 2-8 vs top 10 in 2026; Djokovic struggling physically - opportunity for value
Medvedev with strong tournament history; Mensik dangerous & offers upside
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The ATP Tour's Asian swing continues in Beijing this week, with another high-quality field assembling for the 2026 China Open.

ATP Beijing Seeds
ATP Beijing Outright Winner Odds
ATP Beijing Futures Predictions - 3 Value Bets
Daniil Medvedev
Jakub Mensik
Tallon Griekspoor

First established in 1993, the tournament is staged at the National Tennis Center on outdoor hard courts and carries ATP 500 status, with a 32-player singles draw and US$4,089,385 in prize money.

Jannik Sinner is the reigning champion, while Novak Djokovic owns the tournament record with six singles titles and a remarkable 29-0 career record in Beijing - but the legendary Serbian has been struggling with physical issues lately and it's tough to see him emerging triumphant in such a strong field in his current status.

ATP Beijing Betting MarketsBet on the China Open with PicklebetBet Here

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Alexander Zverev heads the market at $2.75 with Picklebet, but we're happy to oppose the German at that price. Zverev has gone just 2-8 against top-10 opponents in 2026, while Beijing hasn't historically brought out his absolute best - despite three semi-final appearances, he's never reached the final.

With that in mind, we're looking further down the market for our three outright selections.

ATP Beijing Seeds

Seed	Player	Country	Ranking
1	Alexander Zverev	Germany	2
2	Félix Auger-Aliassime	Canada	5
3	Daniil Medvedev	Russia	6
4	Flavio Cobolli	Italy	7
5	Alex de Minaur	Australia	9
6	Novak Djokovic	Serbia	12
7	Learner Tien	United States	13
8	Jakub Menšík	Czech Republic	15

ATP Beijing Outright Winner Odds

(from Picklebet, correct as of 29/9/26).

Player	Picklebet Odds
Alexander Zverev	$2.75
Daniil Medvedev	$8.50
Felix Auger-Aliassime	$9.50
Learner Tien	$11.00
Alex de Minaur	$11.00
Novak Djokovic	$12.00
Jakub Mensik	$15.00
Andrey Rublev	$19.00
Hubert Hurkacz	$21.00
Karen Khachanov	$23.00
Flavio Cobolli	$23.00
Alexander Bublik	$34.00
Roman Safiullin	$41.00
Francisco Cerundolo	$41.00
Quentin Halys	$41.00
Arthur Rinderknech	$41.00
Bu Yunchaokete	$51.00
Tallon Griekspoor	$51.00
Nuno Borges	$51.00
Juan Manuel Cerundolo	$51.00
Cameron Norrie	$51.00

ATP Beijing Futures Predictions - 3 Value Bets

Daniil Medvedev

ATP Beijing Winner 🏆Daniil Medvedev (1 Unit)$8.50 - BET HERE

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If there's one player in this field whose game has consistently translated to Beijing, it's Medvedev.

The former World No. 1 reached the 2023 China Open final, eventually losing two tight tiebreak sets to Jannik Sinner, before returning in 2024 and making the semi-finals, where eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz defeated him 7-5, 6-3.

He made it three consecutive deep runs last season. Medvedev reached the 2025 semi-finals without dropping a set, beating Cameron Norrie, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Zverev along the way. His 6-3, 6-3 demolition of Zverev was particularly impressive before cramping ultimately forced him to retire against Learner Tien in the final four.

That gives Medvedev a final and two semi-final appearances from his last three trips to Beijing.

There have also been positive signs in 2026. Medvedev owns a 26-9 hard-court record this season, including titles in Brisbane and Dubai, along with a runner-up finish at Indian Wells.

He's also warming up nicely in China. Medvedev has advanced to the final in Hangzhou at the time of writing and provided he's not too fatigued from those efforts (he had a bye in R1 & didn't have to face a top 100 player on his way to the final), he can continue his promising form in the Chinese capital this tournament.

With Sinner absent and Medvedev's outstanding recent Beijing record, $8.50 is an attractive price for a player who clearly enjoys these conditions.

Jakub Mensik

ATP Beijing Winner 🏆Jakub Mensik (0.5 Units)$15 - BET HERE

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The Czech has taken another significant step forward in 2026, compiling a 33-18 record, including 24-12 on hard courts. He's also taken three top 10 scalps and reached six quarter-finals and three semi-finals across the season.

Menšík started the year by winning the Auckland title and followed that with strong hard-court performances in Doha and Dubai. His season reached another level at Roland Garros, where he advanced to the semi-finals - his first time doing so at a major.

His North American hard-court swing was also solid. Menšík reached the Montreal quarter-finals and Cincinnati Round of 16 before winning two matches at the US Open before going down in a tight one to Learner Tien.

There's also some useful Beijing experience behind him.

Menšík made his China Open debut in 2025 and reached the quarter-finals, beating Miomir Kecmanovic and Arthur Rinderknech before his tournament ended in retirement against Alex de Minaur. That gives him a 2-0 record in completed matches in Beijing, demonstrating that the conditions suit his powerful first-strike game.

His 2026 draw presents an immediate test against Alexander Bublik, but Menšík leads their head-to-head 2-1 entering the tournament.

At 20 years of age, Menšík's ceiling remains extremely high. With an increasingly effective serve, big top 10 scalps and a previous Beijing quarter-final under his belt, $15 provides enough upside to get involved.

Tallon Griekspoor

ATP Beijing Winner 🏆Tallon Griekspoor (0.25 Units)$51 - Bet Here

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This is certainly the speculative selection of the three, but Griekspoor has enough weapons on hard courts to make his price interesting.

His overall 2026 campaign has been inconsistent, but his numbers improve considerably when isolating hard courts. Griekspoor has won 54% of his hard-court matches this season, with his serve particularly effective on the surface - he's produced an ace on 12.2% of service points and held serve in 85.9% of his service games.

Furthermore, Griekspoor made the final of the ATP 500 event on hardcourt at the start of the year in Dubai - beating Andrey Rublev, the man he's scheduled to face in Round 1 here in Beijing - along the way.

Additionally, we've already seen evidence this season that he can beat the man at the top of the Beijing market.

Griekspoor defeated Zverev 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-4 in Montreal, one of two victories he's recorded over top-10 opposition during 2026.

His previous Beijing experience hasn't produced a deep run, but it hasn't been helped by the draw. Griekspoor defeated Miomir Kecmanovic in three sets in 2024 before running into eventual champion Alcaraz, who beat him 6-1, 6-2.

As mentioned, Griekspoor has already beaten his Beijing R1 opponent Rublev once this year, while the Russian is making the quick dash from Hangzhou, making him potentially vulnerable.

Griekspoor's serve gives him the ability to shorten matches and take the racquet out of an opponent's hands when he's firing, while his victory over Zverev demonstrates that his best level is capable of troubling the leading contenders in this field.

He's not our safest selection, but at $51, he doesn't need to be.