Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges ATP Beijing Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Djokovic remains vulnerable in return to China Open
Novak Djokovic returns to the China Open for the first time since 2015, defending an impressive 29-0 record in Beijing. However, Djokovic is coming off recent losses and physical struggles, making him vulnerable against Nuno Borges, who has shown strong form against elite players. The match is expected to feature over 22.5 games and at least one tiebreak given their previous battles and current trends. Borges’s gritty style could capitalize on Djokovic’s fitness questions, suggesting a potential upset is possible.
- Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges predictions for Wednesday's ATP Beijing R1
- Djokovic coming off back-to-back defeats, question marks surround fitness
- Borges always a tough competitor; Over 22.5 games, 1+ tiebreak & upset backed
- The match is scheduled to start around 9.00pm AEST on Wednesday September 30
Novak Djokovic v Nuno Borges Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Beijing. T&Cs apply.
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Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges ATP Beijing Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Over 22.5 games & 1+ tiebreak are the main plays for this China Open first round showdown, with Nuno Borges a good chance of securing the upset over a vulnerable Novak Djokovic on Wednesday night.
Djokovic is playing the China Open for the first time since 2015 and it's a tournament he absolutely dominated at the peak of his powers, winning six titles and registering a perfect 29-0 match record.
However, that undefeated record is going to come under major scrutiny over the next week in the Beijing capital - and it might even fall in the first round.
Djokovic's struggles with fitness and his overall physical state was there for all to see during the North American hardcourt summer, where he limped out in first round Cincinnati and US Open defeats to Thiago Agustin Tirante and Mariano Navone.
Those players are your classic South American grinders and their style is not unlike Borges, who makes his opponents hit plenty of balls to beat him.
Normally, Djokovic eats up players like that, but right now, this looks like a poor matchup for him.
The one bonus Djokovic has going for him are the conditions in Beijing - it's cool and there's barely any humidity, which is what he struggled with in the United States, especially New York.
But I want to take a gamble on Borges - he loves a scrap and at the very least, I think he can push this Over 22.5 games and force 1+ tiebreak.
Djokovic vs Borges Stats & Trends
- Djokovic has lost his last two matches
- Djokovic has seen 1+ tiebreak in four of his last six matches
- Djokovic has gone 2-3 in his last five opening round matches
- Djokovic has seen Over 22.5 games in all five best-of-three matches in 2026
- Borges has seen 1+ tiebreak in 10 of his last 17 completed matches vs top 20 players
- Borges has won seven of his last 10 matches at all levels
- Borges went 4-2 during last year's Asian swing
- The only previous meeting between the pair saw 1+ tiebreak & Over 22.5 games
Djokovic vs Borges Head To Head
Djokovic leads 1-0, earning a hard-fought straight sets wins in Athens at the end of 2025.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Novak Djokovic | Athens | Quarterfinal | Indoor Hard | 7-6(1), 6-4 |
Novak Djokovic Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 14-7
- ATP Beijing Record: 29-0
- Current Ranking: No. 11
- Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2011)
Djokovic is playing his first tournament outside of Grand Slams and Masters 1000s for the year and it's not hard to see why he's chosen to return to Beijing after a 11-year absence.
The 39-year-old has never lost at the China Open, but in a star-studded field, he will need to wind back the clock and recapture some of his best tennis in order to extend that undefeated record.
The Serbian started the year in fine fashion by beating Jannik Sinner and making the Australian Open final, but Djokovic has only tasted victory on nine other occasions throughout the season and his latest matches in the USA weren't encouraging.
Djokovic was struggling physically during his defeats to a pair of Argentines - Tirante & Navone - in Cincinnati and the US Open. It wasn't pleasant viewing and it remains to be seen if Djokovic has found the solution to his physical problems going into this tournament.
Nuno Borges Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 26-24
- ATP Beijing Record: 0-0
- Current Ranking: No. 49
- Career-High Ranking: No. 30
It's been another solid season for Borges, who needs four more wins to equal his most tour-level victories in a season from 2025.
Borges struggled after the Australian Open and went 1-8 until the clay swing, but he's turned things around and maintained a top 50 ranking with some good results lately.
The Portuguese made the fourth round at both the Canada and Cincinnati Masters, but had a tough first round draw at the US Open, going down to Learner Tien.
Borges won four of his six matches during last season's Asian swing and he will be looking forward to this opportunity to face Djokovic in his Beijing debut. Borges nearly always gives a good account of himself against elite players and this looms as a good opportunity for the 29-year-old to secure a famous win - much like he did over Rafael Nadal in 2024.
Djokovic vs Borges Live Stream
Watch and bet on Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges live tennis from Beijing.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Beijing with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
Djokovic looks there for the taking if his recent performances are any indication - good chance for Borges to claim the upset in Beijing.
Over 22.5
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