2026 China Open

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Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges ATP Beijing Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Djokovic remains vulnerable in return to China Open

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 30 Sep 2026 02:10

Andrew Hendrie 30 Sep 2026

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Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges predictions for Wednesday's ATP Beijing R1
Djokovic coming off back-to-back defeats, question marks surround fitness
Borges always a tough competitor; Over 22.5 games, 1+ tiebreak & upset backed
The match is scheduled to start around 9.00pm AEST on Wednesday September 30

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Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges ATP Beijing Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Over 22.5 games & 1+ tiebreak are the main plays for this China Open first round showdown, with Nuno Borges a good chance of securing the upset over a vulnerable Novak Djokovic on Wednesday night.

Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges ATP Beijing Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Djokovic vs Borges Stats & Trends
Djokovic vs Borges Head To Head
Novak Djokovic Form Analysis
Nuno Borges Form Analysis
Djokovic vs Borges Live Stream

Djokovic is playing the China Open for the first time since 2015 and it's a tournament he absolutely dominated at the peak of his powers, winning six titles and registering a perfect 29-0 match record.

However, that undefeated record is going to come under major scrutiny over the next week in the Beijing capital - and it might even fall in the first round.

Djokovic's struggles with fitness and his overall physical state was there for all to see during the North American hardcourt summer, where he limped out in first round Cincinnati and US Open defeats to Thiago Agustin Tirante and Mariano Navone.

Those players are your classic South American grinders and their style is not unlike Borges, who makes his opponents hit plenty of balls to beat him.

Normally, Djokovic eats up players like that, but right now, this looks like a poor matchup for him.

The one bonus Djokovic has going for him are the conditions in Beijing - it's cool and there's barely any humidity, which is what he struggled with in the United States, especially New York.

But I want to take a gamble on Borges - he loves a scrap and at the very least, I think he can push this Over 22.5 games and force 1+ tiebreak.

Djokovic vs Borges Stats & Trends

Djokovic has lost his last two matches
Djokovic has seen 1+ tiebreak in four of his last six matches
Djokovic has gone 2-3 in his last five opening round matches
Djokovic has seen Over 22.5 games in all five best-of-three matches in 2026
Borges has seen 1+ tiebreak in 10 of his last 17 completed matches vs top 20 players
Borges has won seven of his last 10 matches at all levels
Borges went 4-2 during last year's Asian swing
The only previous meeting between the pair saw 1+ tiebreak & Over 22.5 games

Djokovic vs Borges Head To Head

Djokovic leads 1-0, earning a hard-fought straight sets wins in Athens at the end of 2025.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2025	Novak Djokovic	Athens	Quarterfinal	Indoor Hard	7-6(1), 6-4

Novak Djokovic Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 14-7
ATP Beijing Record: 29-0
Current Ranking: No. 11
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2011)

Djokovic is playing his first tournament outside of Grand Slams and Masters 1000s for the year and it's not hard to see why he's chosen to return to Beijing after a 11-year absence.

The 39-year-old has never lost at the China Open, but in a star-studded field, he will need to wind back the clock and recapture some of his best tennis in order to extend that undefeated record.

The Serbian started the year in fine fashion by beating Jannik Sinner and making the Australian Open final, but Djokovic has only tasted victory on nine other occasions throughout the season and his latest matches in the USA weren't encouraging.

Djokovic was struggling physically during his defeats to a pair of Argentines - Tirante & Navone - in Cincinnati and the US Open. It wasn't pleasant viewing and it remains to be seen if Djokovic has found the solution to his physical problems going into this tournament.

Nuno Borges Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 26-24
ATP Beijing Record: 0-0
Current Ranking: No. 49
Career-High Ranking: No. 30

It's been another solid season for Borges, who needs four more wins to equal his most tour-level victories in a season from 2025.

Borges struggled after the Australian Open and went 1-8 until the clay swing, but he's turned things around and maintained a top 50 ranking with some good results lately.

The Portuguese made the fourth round at both the Canada and Cincinnati Masters, but had a tough first round draw at the US Open, going down to Learner Tien.

Borges won four of his six matches during last season's Asian swing and he will be looking forward to this opportunity to face Djokovic in his Beijing debut. Borges nearly always gives a good account of himself against elite players and this looms as a good opportunity for the 29-year-old to secure a famous win - much like he did over Rafael Nadal in 2024.

Djokovic vs Borges Live Stream

Watch and bet on Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges live tennis from Beijing.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Beijing with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Novak Djokovic v Nuno Borges

Djokovic looks there for the taking if his recent performances are any indication - good chance for Borges to claim the upset in Beijing.

Over 22.5

Total Games

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