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Hubert Hurkacz vs Jaime Faria Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Faria to cover against erratic Hurkacz
Hubert Hurkacz will face Jaime Faria in the first round of the Madrid Masters. Hurkacz, a former top 10 player, has seen a decline in form, losing eight of his last 10 matches. In contrast, Faria is enjoying a high, winning eight out of ten matches and successfully qualifying for the tournament. The match is expected to be tight, with both players having a record of frequent tiebreaks. Betting odds suggest value in betting on a first-set tiebreak, with Faria showing promise to cover with a +3.5 games start.
- Hubert Hurkacz vs Jaime Faria predictions for Wednesday's ATP Madrid R1 match
- Faria in great form - tipped to cover a +3.5 start against out-of-form Hurkacz
- At least one tiebreak expected - value on first set breaker
- The match is scheduled to start around 1.00am AEST on Thursday April 23
Expired
Jaime Faria (Photo by Getty Images)
Hubert Hurkacz vs Jaime Faria Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Former top 10 player Hubert Hurkacz is on upset alert as he prepares to face qualifier Jaime Faria in the first round of the Madrid Masters on Wednesday.
Hurkacz initially made a bright return from injury at the start of the season during the United Cup, but his form took a dramatic downward turn and he comes into this clash having lost eight of his last 10 matches.
Meanwhile, Faria has won eight of his last 10 matches at all levels as he targets a return to the top 100 - the Portuguese player successfully navigated through Madrid qualifying, although he did need the help of a Lloyd Harris retirement while a set apiece yesterday.
I think this will be a tight encounter, which makes Faria with a +3.5 games start appealing. I also like the value on a first set tiebreak at $3.35 with Unibet. Both players played plenty of tiebreaks over the course of the season and Faria actually went a stretch of seeing five consecutive first set breakers earlier in the year. Both players have big serves and the altitude conditions in Madrid should see the pair hold relatively comfortably.
Hurkcaz vs Faria Stats & Trends
- Hurkacz has seen 1+ tiebreak in eight of his last 11 matches
- Hurkacz has seen a first set tiebreak in two of his last three matches
- Faria has seen 1+ tiebreak in his last four completed matches
- Faria has seen a first set tiebreak in 11 of his last 19 completed matches
- Hurkacz has lost eight of his last 10 matches
- Faria has won eight of his last 10 matches at all levels
Hurkacz vs Faria Head To Head
This will be the first career meeting between the pair.
Hubert Hurkacz Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 7-8
- ATP Madrid Record: 8-6
- Current Ranking: No. 63
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)
Hurkacz was forced to undergo knee surgery midway through last year and made his return at the start of 2026 at the United Cup, where he produced a series of brilliant performances, signalling it wouldn't be long until he returned to the top of the game.
However, that hasn't eventuated at all. Hurkacz went out in the second round of the Australian Open and proceeded to lose in the first round of his next six events at Rotterdam, Montpellier, Dubai, Indian Wells, the Cap Cana Challenger and Miami.
After splitting with Nicolas Massu and linking up with new coach Gilles Cervara, Hurkacz enjoyed an immediate upturn in form at the Monte Carlo Masters.
The Pole defeated Luciano Darderi and Fabian Marozsan before being edged out in three sets in the R16 by Valentin Vacherot.
Jaime Faria Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 3-2
- ATP Madrid Record: 0-0
- Current Ranking: No. 136
- Career-High Ranking: No. 87 (Feb 2025)
It's been a pretty solid season so far for Faria, but he hasn't been able to make any inroads towards a return to the top 100.
That's because his two best results - a second round run from qualifying at the Australian Open and quarter-final showing at the ATP 500 event in Rio - were repeats of his 2025 season, so he didn't actually earn any ranking points.
Nevertheless, if Faria keeps playing at this sort of level, the ranking will take care of itself sooner rather than later.
The 22-year-old made the final of the Sao Paulo Challenger and quarter-finals of the Oeiras 3 Challenger last week before successfully qualifying for his maiden Madrid Masters with wins over Quentin Halys and Lloyd Harris.
Hurkacz vs Faria Live Stream
Watch and bet on Hubert Hurkacz vs Jaime Faria live tennis from Madrid.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Madrid with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
Faria is tipped to cover with a +3.5 start, with at least one tiebreak - value on an opening set breaker.
Faria +3.5
Games Line
$1.75 - 2 Units
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Over 0.5
Total Tiebreaks
$1.83 - 2 Units
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1st Set Tiebreak
$3.35 - 1 Unit
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