2026 Madrid Open

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Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Popyrin's struggles to continue in Madrid

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 23 Apr 2026 00:42

Andrew Hendrie 23 Apr 2026

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Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm predictions for Thursday's ATP Madrid R1 match
Popyrin remains in terrible form, losing 16 of last 20 matches
Damm has seen 1+ tiebreak in last four matches, including both Madrid qualifying outings
Value on Damm coming away with the upset win
The match is scheduled to start around 9.00pm AEST on Thursday April 23

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Martin Damm (Photo by Getty Images)

Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Australia's Alexei Popyrin remains in poor form as he prepares to face big-serving qualifier Martin Damm in the opening round of the Madrid Masters on Thursday.

Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Popyrin vs Damm Stats & Trends
Popyrin vs Damm Head To Head
Alexei Popyrin Form Analysis
Martin Damm Form Analysis
Popyrin vs Damm Live Stream

Popyrin has managed just four tour-level wins for the season and has tumbled out of the top 50 heading into Madrid. Defending French Open fourth round points next month, Popyrin could be close to crashing out of the top 100 if he doesn't find his best tennis soon.

Meanwhile, Damm has got his ranking heading in the right direction and he should be making his top 100 debut at some stage in 2026 - the American has a massive serve and the altitude conditions in Madrid are certainly helping him as he's qualified for the main draw for the first time.

I don't see how Popyrin is priced between $1.40 and $1.50 with most Australian bookmakers. He's lost his last four matches in Madrid and has been in terrible form since August 2025. Damm has already made an ATP semi-final this year and has two matches under his belt in Madrid, beating a great clay courter in Cristian Garin in his last outing. I think these two will play at least one tiebreak in these conditions, with Damm offering great value for the outright victory.

Popyrin vs Damm Stats & Trends

Popyrin has lost 16 of his last 20 matches dating back to August 2025
Popyrin has lost his last four matches in Madrid
Popyrin lost three times vs players outside the top 100 in 2025, this will be his first such clash in 2026
Popyrin has seen 1+ tiebreak in his last four matches vs players outside the top 100
Damm has seen 1+ tiebreak in his last four matches, including in both Madrid qualifying matches

Popyrin vs Damm Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Alexei Popyrin Form Analysis

2026 Record: 4-10
ATP Madrid Record: 2-4
Current Ranking: No. 56
Career-High Ranking: No. 19 (August 2025)

It's been a dire last nine or so months for Popyrin and he hasn't really shown any indication that he's about to turn things around.

Popyrin has lost 16 of his last 20 matches since last year's US Open, slipping outside of the world's top 50 heading into this tournament.

Unlike most Australians, Popyrin actually plays some of his best tennis on clay, where the slow speed and high bounce allow him time on his groundstrokes.

The 26-year-old managed to secure his best result of the year in Houston when he made the quarter-finals, but he couldn't back it up in Monte Carlo, going out in the opening round to Casper Ruud.

The slightly different clay conditions in Madrid haven't appealed to Popyrin - he's without a win at this tournament since his debut appearance in 2021, where he beat Jannik Sinner before going down to Rafael Nadal.

Martin Damm Form Analysis

2026 Record: 4-5
ATP Madrid Record: 0-0
Current Ranking: No. 126
Career-High Ranking: No. 124 (April 2026)

Damm is enjoying a solid season and I'd be expecting him to break into the world's top 100 sooner rather than later.

The American has a massive game, but does need to work on his consistency - he has shown an ability to get up for bigger events, but grinding away in the smaller tournaments where valuable ranking points are on the line remains a challenge.

Case in point - Damm successfully qualified for the Australian Open before reaching his maiden ATP semi-final in Montpellier. However, he has also suffered two Challenger first round exits and even lost in the qualifying of one.

Damm is again peaking at a big tournament here in Madrid, beating Andrea Pellegrino and Cristian Garin in qualifying to enter the main draw.

Popyrin vs Damm Live Stream

Watch and bet on Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm live tennis from Madrid.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Madrid with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Alexei Popyrin v Martin Damm

At least one tiebreak is backed, with value on Damm to pile more misery on an out-of-form Popyrin.

Over 0.5

Total Tiebreaks

$1.70 - 2 Units

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$2.75 - 1 Unit

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