Naomi Osaka vs Camila Osorio Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Osorio targets second win over Osaka

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 23 Apr 2026 01:11

Andrew Hendrie 23 Apr 2026

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Naomi Osaka vs Camila Osorio predictions for Thursday's WTA Madrid R2 match
Osaka tipped for another slow start to her clay swing
Osorio with a stellar record on clay and dropped just three games in her Madrid opener
The match is scheduled to start around 1.00am AEST on Friday April 24

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Camila Osorio (Photo by Getty Images)

Naomi Osaka vs Camila Osorio Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Naomi Osaka has a tough match for her opening clay outing of the season when she faces Camila Osorio in the second round of the Madrid Open on Thursday.

Naomi Osaka vs Camila Osorio Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Osaka vs Osorio Stats & Trends
Osaka vs Osorio Head To Head
Naomi Osaka Form Analysis
Camila Osorio Form Analysis
Osaka vs Osorio Live Stream

After receiving a first round bye, Osaka officially gets up and running on clay for the year in this encounter - but I don't like her chances of progressing.

Osaka has lost her first clay match in each of the last two years - including last year in Madrid to Lucia Bronzetti. The former World No. 1 was never at her best on clay at her peak and she remains vulnerable on this surface with her sub-par movement.

I also don't think the conditions suit Osaka here. While the altitude means the ball flies through the thinner air quicker, making it easer to strike winners, it can also lead to more unforced errors for flat hitters of the ball like Osaka. With the Japanese star playing her first clay match of the year, this could be problematic.

Osorio meanwhile is an absolute weapon on the dirt - she's got a 64-29 record on clay throughout her career and absolutely crushed Anastasia Zakharova 6-0 6-3 in her opening round. With a match already under her belt on her favourite surface against a player who doesn't like the clay, I think Osorio comes out on top here.

Osaka vs Osorio Stats & Trends

Osaka has lost her first clay match of the year in each of the last two seasons
Osaka has lost three of her last four Madrid matches
Osaka is 11-12 on clay at tour-level since 2021
Osorio has a 64-29 record at tour-level on clay
Osorio has a 4-3 record in Madrid

Osaka vs Osorio Head To Head

Osaka leads 2-1, but this will be their first meeting on clay.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2026	Indian Wells	Hard	Round of 32	Naomi Osaka	6–1, 3–6, 6–1
2025	Indian Wells	Hard	Round of 128	Camila Osorio	6–4, 6–4
2022	Australian Open	Hard	Round of 128	Naomi Osaka	6–3, 6–3

Naomi Osaka Form Analysis

2026 Record: 5-3
WTA Madrid Record: 6-6
Current Ranking: No. 15
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2019)

Crazy to think that it was seven years ago when Osaka hit the No. 1 ranking and was a regular force at the majors.

A lot has changed since then and Osaka is still more than capable of beating anyone on tour at her best - it's just those days are few and far between, while the injuries are also starting to pile up.

Osaka has only managed eight matches for 2026 with a 5-3 record. The 28-year-old was forced to withdraw from the Australian Open third round and only returned at Indian Wells, where she made the R16 before going out to Aryna Sabalenka.

That was a promising run, but Osaka couldn't back it up, losing in her Miami opener to Talia Gibson of Australia. The Japanese hasn't played on clay leading into Madrid.

Camila Osorio Form Analysis

2026 Record: 8-8
WTA Madrid Record: 4-3
Current Ranking: No. 83
Career-High Ranking: No. 33 (2022)

Osorio is a far way off her career-high ranking of No. 33 which she hit in 2022, but she's been playing some decent tennis so far this season.

The Colombian won the WTA 125k title in Manila just after the Australian Open - beating home favourite Alexandra Eala along the way - before qualifying and making the R16 in Doha, which formed part of a nine-match winning run.

Osorio also beat Iva Jovic to reach the Indian Wells third round, but was disappointed as she picked up a minor bicep injury and lost in the second round of her home tournament in Bogota to World No. 206 Jazmin Ortenzi.

However, Osorio has fully recovered from that issue and opened her Madrid campaign with a strong 6-0 6-3 victory over Anastasia Zakharova.