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Alex de Minaur vs Rafael Jodar Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon targets win over talented homegrown star
Alex de Minaur, a consistent top-ranked player, faces the emerging talent Rafael Jodar in a crucial second-round matchup at the Madrid Masters. Despite Jodar's impressive entry into the top 40, he has yet to prove himself against top-tier opponents. De Minaur, although in varied form, remains a formidable competitor renowned for his resilience. The match is a 'Pick Em,' but given Jodar's inexperience and De Minaur’s established performance, experts recommend backing De Minaur to capitalize on the occasion.
- Alex de Minaur vs Rafael Jodar predictions for Friday's ATP Madrid R2 match
- Jodar even money despite never even taking a set off a top 20 player before
- De Minaur has won 12 of his last 14 matches on clay vs players outside the top 40
- The match is scheduled to start around 4.00am AEST on Saturday April 25
Expired
Alex de Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)
Alex de Minaur vs Rafael Jodar Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Arguably the match of the day at the Madrid Masters sees fifth seed Alex de Minaur come up against teenage rising star Rafael Jodar for a spot in the third round.
Jodar has put together a meteoric rise into the world's top 40 after being ranked outside the top 600 this time last year. The 19-year-old grew up just 12km from the Caja Magica in Madrid and will be determined to continue his rapid rise in front of his home fans.
However, even though de Minaur's in poor form, I think the market has been overreacting to Jodar's swift rise a bit too much over the last month. At the end of the day, Jodar has yet to win a set against a top 20 player, while the only top 30 player he's beaten is Cameron Norrie.
De Minaur is a relentless competitor who will always get that one extra ball back and he is primed to take advantage of Jodar's inexperience at this level and any potential nerves playing on such a big and meaningful stage. The fact the bookies have made this a 'Pick Em' is very surprising. If Jodar was around $2.50 I'd be happy to take the plunge, but I'll side with the proven fifth seed over a raw teenager any day of the week at these odds.
De Minaur vs Jodar Stats & Trends
- De Minaur has won his last 10 matches vs players aged 21 or younger
- Jodar is 0-2 vs top 20 players & is yet to win a set
- De Minaur has won 12 of his last 14 clay matches vs players outside the top 40, with the last eight coming in straight sets
- Four of De Minaur's last six wins overall have been in straight sets
De Minaur vs Jodar Head To Head
This will be the first career meeting between the pair.
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 15-7
- ATP Madrid Record: 6-6
- Current Ranking: No. 8
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)
De Minaur's form has dipped over the last couple of months and he will be hoping a big occasion such as this sparks him back into life.
After a strong start to the season, including making the Australian Open quarter-finals and winning the 500 level Rotterdam title, de Minaur has managed just four wins across his last five tournaments.
The Aussie's best result in that period was a third straight quarter-final in Monte Carlo, but he's suffered some disappointing and uncharacteristic defeats to the likes of Patrick Kypson, Cameron Norrie, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Valentin Vacherot and most recently Hamad Medjedovic in the Barcelona second round last week.
De Minaur has never really thrived in Madrid, with his best result a R16 loss to Lorenzo Musetti last year.
Rafael Jodar Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 13-7
- ATP Madrid Record: 1-0
- Current Ranking: No. 42
- Career-High Ranking: No. 42 (April 2026)
It's been a spectacular rise for Jodar, who is now on the cusp of being seeded at the majors after being ranked outside the top 600 12 months ago.
After competing at the Next Gen Finals at the end of 2025, Jodar has taken his game to the next level - especially on clay over the last month.
Indeed, the 19-year-old has won 13 of his last 15 matches at all levels, including securing a maiden ATP title in Marrackech and reaching the Barcelona semi-finals last week.
Jodar was understandably nervous in his Madrid opener, but recovered to edge out Jesper De Jong 2-6 7-5 6-4 to become just the third Spaniard after Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz to win a main draw match in Madrid before the age of 20.
De Minaur vs Jodar Live Stream
Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Rafael Jodar live tennis from Madrid.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Madrid with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
Jodar is an immense talent, but overpriced against a top 10 player here - back Demon to rise to the occasion.
De Minaur Win
H2H
$1.93 - 2 Units
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De Minaur 2-0
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