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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Tips - Points at a premium as struggling sides clash

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 01 May 2025 09:10

Andrew Hendrie 01 May 2025

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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 9 game
Kick off is at 3.00pm AEST at Suncorp Stadium
Minimal points expected in clash between teams struggling in attack
Depleted Souths backed to go Under 21.5 total team points for the fifth game in a row
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Tips

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights, NRL Round 9 - Expert Prediction

Two teams struggling for points square off to launch Super Saturday action in Magic Round - will it be the Rabbitohs or Knights that snap their respective losing streaks?

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights, NRL Round 9 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Newcastle Knights Team News
Newcastle Knights Team List

I'm not confident with either of these teams at the moment, so I'm focusing on total points for the main plays here.

Newcastle's attack has been absolutely abysmal - they are averaging just 10 points per game across the opening eight rounds and have been kept to single figures in three of their last five. Six of their seven games have gone under the total points line set for this clash (44.5).

Souths meanwhile have been hit hard by injuries/suspensions and will be missing immense strike-power in this encounter, including Jack Wighton, Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker, Cameron Murray and. Jamie Humphries. A makeshift halves pairing of Jayden Sullivan and Lewis Dodd doesn't inspire confidence for this one. The Bunnies have also gone under the total points line in all eight of their games so far in 2025.

In terms of Anytime Tryscorers, it's tough to predict when you're also backing minimal points. This is mostly a vibe play, but I think Bradman Best offers decent value - the Knights need to keep it simple and fire some early ball to Best close to the line. The NSW Origin centre has scored a try in four of his last five games against the Rabbitohs, so this matchup has been kind to him in the past.

Under 44.5 points has landed in six of the Knights' seven games this season
Under 44.5 points has landed in five of the Rabbitohs' last six games
Rabbitohs have scored Under 21.5 points in five of their last six games
For all their horror attack, the Knights have kept their opponents Under 21.5 points in two of their last four games - their defence hasn't been too bad
Bradman Best has scored a try in four of his last five games vs Rabbitohs

Head To Head

The Knights have won the last two meetings between the teams, including a most-recent 36-16 victory in Round 25 last season.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	3-2	0-5

The Rabbitohs made a bright start to the season with four wins from their opening five games, with Wayne Bennett immediately working his magic upon his return to the club.

However, a tough run with injuries has contributed to the Bunnies recent dip in form, which sees them enter this clash on a three-game losing streak, falling to the Cowboys (24-16), Bulldogs (32-0) and Storm (24-16).

Souths pushed the Storm on the road last week, but 12 of their 16 points came from players that will miss this game against Newcastle, so it could be another difficult watch for the Bunnies faithful.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
5-3	0-8	4-2	0-2

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News

Jye Gray returns to fullback for the suspended Latrell Mitchell, while Jack Wighton is out due to a calf injury, with Lewis Dodd to partner Jayden Sullivan in the halves.

Euan Aitken moves from the backrow into the centres, with Tallis Duncan coming into the starting side. Fletcher Myers and Liam Le Blanc are the new faces on the pine, while Lachlan Hubner is also back from concussion.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List

1. Jye Gray

2. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape

3. Euan Aitken

4. Campbell Graham

5. Isaiah Tass

7. Jayden Sullivan

19. Lewis Dodd

8. Sean Keppie

9. Peter Mamouzelos

10. Tevita Tatola

11. Keaon Koloamatangi

12. Tallis Duncan

13. Jai Arrow

Interchange

14. Liam Le Blanc

15. Lachlan Hubner

16. Davvy Moale

17. Fletcher Myers

Reserves

18. Thomas Fletcher

20. Joshua Schuster

21. Salesi Ataata

22. Nazareth Taua

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-5	0-5	1-4

It's been a nightmare start to the season for the Knights, with the team struggling significantly in attack as they come into this showdown on a five-game losing streak.

Newcastle have been accused in the past of relying too much on Kalyn Ponga - and when he's not firing, they don't really have a Plan B. Fletcher Sharpe is a gun, but he's not an organiser and the Knights still won't swallow their pride and promote Jackson Hastings.

Adam O'Brien's side only managed a combined 10 points in defeats against the Titans, Bulldogs and Tigers, while their last two outings have resulted in 34-14 and 26-12 defeats to the Sharks and Warriors respectively.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
1-6	1-6	1-0	1-5

Newcastle Knights Team News

Jacob Saifiti and Adam Elliott are set to return from calf injuries, with Tyrone Thompson and Thomas Cant dropping out the side.

Tyson Gamble is listed in the reserves as he aims to return from a broken nose.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. James Schiller

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Jack Cogger

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Leo Thompson

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Kai Pearce-Paul

13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange

14. Jayden Brailey

15. Mathew Croker

16. Adam Elliott

17. Brodie Jones

Reserves

18. Thomas Cant

19. Tyson Gamble

20. Kyle McCarthy

21. Matthew Arthur

22. Tyrone Thompson

Verdict

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights

Under 44.5 total points is the best bet, with both teams all over the place in attack. The Knights' defence has actually been relatively decent, so backing them to restrict a depleted Souths to Under 21.5 total team points. Bradman Best has enjoyed success in the past against the Bunnies and can barge over for a meat pie.

Under 44.5

Total Points

$1.90 - 2 Units

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Rabbitohs Under 21.5

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Bradman Best

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