NRL 2026 Win Totals: All Teams, Lines, and Model Probabilities
The article provides insights into the NRL 2026 win totals, focusing on team line assessments and model probabilities. It highlights discrepancies between market prices and model predictions, especially for Tier 1 teams. Rather than offering predictions, the article uses simulations to showcase how frequently each team could exceed or fall short of expected wins. It also explains the tiers, with Tier 1 denoting strong disagreements and Tier 3 indicating only slight discrepancies. Teams like the Brisbane Broncos and Penrith Panthers are significant Tier 1 candidates, both expected to finish under their respective win totals.
- NRL 2026 win totals assessed with market lines and model probabilities.
- Tier 1 indicates strong model-market disagreements, like Broncos and Panthers.
- Simulations highlight probable team performance over/under market expectations.
NRL 2026 Win Totals: All Teams
NRL 2026 Win Totals: All Teams, Lines, and Model Probabilities
This article provides a full snapshot of the NRL 2026 win totals market, showing each team’s listed line alongside model probabilities and confidence tiers.
Rather than focusing on predictions, these numbers reflect how often each team finishes over or under their listed total across a wide range of simulated seasons. The tiers indicate where the strongest disagreements between the model and the market sit, and where numbers are priced more tightly.
If you’re looking for deeper context on why certain teams rate as Tier 1 positions, you can read our feature breakdown on where the NRL 2026 win totals market is most exposed. For a broader explanation of how win totals work and why range matters more than predictions, see our guide to how the NRL win totals market actually works.
Model Probability in the table below reflects the chance of the listed Over or Under result occurring across simulated seasons.
| Team | Market Line | Over/Under | Model Probability | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Broncos | 16,5 | Under | 80% | Tier 1 |
| Canberra Raiders | 13,5 | Over | 64% | Tier 3 |
| Canterbury Bulldogs | 13,5 | Under | 53% | No Bet |
| Cronulla Sharks | 12,5 | Over | 69% | Tier 1 |
| Dolphins | 12,5 | Over | 72% | Tier 1 |
| Gold Coast Titans | 7,5 | Over | 73% | Tier 1 |
| Manly Sea Eagles | 10,5 | Over | 79% | Tier 1 |
| Melbourne Storm | 14,5 | Over | 57% | Tier 3 |
| New Zealand Warriors | 11,5 | Over | 65% | Tier 3 |
| Newcastle Knights | 8,5 | Under | 65% | Tier 3 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 10,5 | Under | 63% | Tier 3 |
| Parramatta Eels | 12,5 | Under | 73% | Tier 1 |
| Penrith Panthers | 15,5 | Under | 81% | Tier 1 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 11,5 | Under | 85% | Tier 1 |
| St George Illawarra Dragons | 8,5 | Over | 77% | Tier 1 |
| Sydney Roosters | 14,5 | Under | 59% | Tier 3 |
| Wests Tigers | 9,5 | Over | 59% | Tier 3 |
Tier Definitions
- Tier 1: Strong disagreement between model probability and market price
- Tier 2: Moderate edge, sensitive to price or conditions
- Tier 3: Lean only, limited margin for error
- No Bet: Model and market largely aligned
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