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New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL Tips - Warriors to conquer depleted Panthers

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 19 Jun 2025 11:19

Andrew Hendrie 19 Jun 2025

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New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 16 game
Kick off is at 3.00pm AEST at Go Media Stadium
Warriors backed for their 11th win this season, with Panthers resting their Origin stars
Low-scoring game expected between top defensive sides
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL Tips

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers, NRL Round 16 - Expert Prediction

The Warriors are set to keep the pressure on the Raiders and Bulldogs at the top of the ladder and secure another two points when they face an understrength Panthers side to launch Super Saturday across the Tasman.

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers, NRL Round 16 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Penrith Panthers Team News
Penrith Panthers Team List

What a season it's been for the Warriors - and although I keep declaring they've been very fortunate at various stages throughout the year, you have to give credit where credit's due. Their third spot on the ladder is no accident and Andrew Webster - one of the most underrated coaches in the competition - has done a great job shaping this Warriors side into a premiership force.

The Warriors have only lost to the Raiders and Storm this season and they're not about to add another team to that short list in Round 16. The Panthers are poised to make a late charge for the finals, but it's unlikely to start here, with Ivan Cleary making the decision to rest all of his Origin players - meaning Dylan Edwards, Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Brian To'o and Liam Martin are all missing for this clash.

As a result, this will prove too big a test for the Panthers, but I still think they can keep this relatively close, with the Warriors finding themselves in lots of close contests this season. I'm also backing Under 45.5 total points, with the Warriors ranking top three in defence and Penrith improving in this area over the last month. Tom Jenkins looks good value for a try as a winger, scoring a hat-trick last week and crossing at least once in four of his last five games.

Warriors have won 10 of their 13 games this season
Warriors have only lost to Storm & Raiders this season
Warriors have won four of their five games in NZ this season
Seven of the Warriors' last nine wins have been by a 1-12 margin
Four of the Panthers' last seven defeats have been by a 1-12 margin
Two of the last three meetings have bee decided by a 1-12 margin
The last three meetings have seen Under 45.5 points
Five of the Panthers' last six games have seen Under 45.5 points
Five of the Warriors' last eight games have seen Under 45.5 points
Thomas Jenkins has scored seven tries in his last five games

Head To Head

The Warriors are aiming for consecutive wins over Penrith for the first time since 2011-12 after prevailing 22-20 in Round 9 last season, with Dylan Edwards missing a penalty goal after the siren to level the scores. Penrith will be playing in New Zealand for the first time since 2019.

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

It's been a brilliant season for the Warriors, who are strongly positioned to finish inside the top four and give themselves a second chance in the finals.

Indeed, the Warriors enjoy a six-point buffer over the fifth-placed Sharks, who they demolished in their most-recent performance, which was easily their most impressive of the year.

The Warriors crushed Cronulla 40-10 on the road, with Luke Metcalf continues his sensational season at halfback, crossing for an eighth try of the season, while he's also registered seven try assists. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad continues to be a metre eater, running for 242m in that victory, with the fullback making the third-most metres in the competition this season.

Andrew Webster's side have now won seven of their last eight games and have piled on the points lately, also recording a 36-30 triumph over the Rabbitohs the previous round.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
9-4	6-7	7-1	3-2

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Wayde Egan returns from a hip injury at hooker, with Sam Healey dropping to 18th man, but centres Rocco Berry (hamstring) and Ali Leiataua (ankle) remain sidelined.

Moala Graham-Taufa comes into the centres, while Kurt Capewell is being rested after Origin.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Adam Pompey

4. Moala Graham-Taufa

5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Luke Metcalf

8. James Fisher-Harris

9. Wayde Egan

10. Marata Niukore

11. Leka Halasima

12. Jacob Laban

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Te Maire Martin

15. Jackson Ford

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Tanner Stowers-Smith

Reserves

18. Samuel Healey

20. Bunty Afoa

21. Tanah Boyd

22. Edward Kosi

23. Eddie Ieremia

Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	1-4

It's obviously been a tough season for the Panthers, which is understandable following four consecutive premierships.

After going 1-5 to begin the season, the Panthers have began to make their move, coming into this encounter having won three and drawn one of their last five games.

Currently ninth on the ladder, the Panthers will remain confident of finishing inside the top eight this season and timing their run to perfection in order to make an impact in the finals.

However, it's still been a real grind, with the Panthers edging out the lowly Eels and Tigers by eight and four points respectively in their last two games before the bye.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
5-8	5-8	3-4	2-3

Penrith Panthers Team News

As mentioned, Origin stars Dylan Edwards, Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Brian To'o and Liam Martin are all being rested for this clash.

Daine Laurie starts at fullback, Paul Alamoti lines up on the wing, Brad Schneider at halfback, Isaiah Papali'i starts in the back row and Matt Eisenhuth comes in at lock. Liam Henry returns from suspension on the bench alongside Trent Toelau, Luron Patea and Luke Garner.

Penrith Panthers Team List

1. Daine Laurie

2. Thomas Jenkins

3. Izack Tago

4. Casey McLean

5. Paul Alamoti

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Brad Schneider

8. Moses Leota

9. Mitch Kenny

10. Lindsay Smith

11. Scott Sorensen

12. Isaiah Papali’i

13. Matt Eisenhuth

Interchange

14. Trent Toelau

15. Liam Henry

16. Luron Patea

17. Luke Garner

Reserves

18. Luke Sommerton

19. Jack Cole

20. Mavrik Geyer

21. Preston Riki

22. Austin Dias

23. Harrison Hassett

24. Jaxen Edgar

Verdict

New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

The Warriors are tipped for another 1-12 win this season over a depleted Panthers outfit.

Under 45.5 points is also backed, with Tom Jenkins decent value to cross for another meat pie.

Under 45.5

Total Points

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Warriors 1-12

Margin

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