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Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL Round 3 Tips - Curse broken

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 26 Mar 2026 10:37

Jeremy Darke 26 Mar 2026

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The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, 28th March, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEDT)
North Melbourne expected to end 10-year losing streak vs. Essendon.
Essendon struggling with poor defensive record and significant losses.
Nick Larkey and Cameron Zurhaar tipped for strong performances.

Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL Round 3 Tips

Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction

North Melbourne are going to break a 10 year trend of losing to Essendon when they cover as the favourite at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night.

Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Team Lists & News
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

All of North’s hype after their Round 1 win against Port was squashed after losing to West Coast last week, however, Essendon’s woes got deeper with their second 60+ loss of the season going down to Port in Round 2.

If the Power are the mark then this should be very one-sided to the Kangaroos. I’m not expecting that much from North Melbourne though after their poor performance against the Eagles, but they will have enough forward pressure to get past the Bombers and cover the 13.5 points as the favourite.

This one will be decided by how accurate the Kangaroos are in front of goal as the Bombers will give them the chances after starting the season as the worst team in the AFL in opposition inside 50s.

Although the Kangaroos are not the most efficient in getting into their forward 50 they make it count when they are there converting 32.3 percent of their entries into goals, the most efficient team in the AFL.

This is enough to have me backing Nick Larkey for another 4 goals, which he has hit in both matches for the Kangaroos this season. I also like Cameron Zurhaar for 3+, the 27-year-old has taken his chances when they have arrived this season and he will get a handful against the Bombers.

Essendon have lost both of the first two matches by 60+ points.
Essendon allow the most inside 50s of any team in the AFL at 64.5/G.
Nick Larkey has kicked 10 goals in the opening 2 matches for North Melbourne.
Cameron Zurhaar has kicked 2 goals in each of the opening 2 matches for North Melbourne.

Head to Head Stats

Essendon have won the last 12 matches against North Melbourne.

In 2025, Essendon led from start to finish, holding on by the skin of their teeth 65-62 in a fourth quarter that saw just 1 goal from both sides.

The previous three matches have gone towards the under on the game total.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis

The Bombers are suffering after their first two matches of the season sitting at the bottom of the ladder with a percentage of just 55.0 getting pumped by 62 points against Hawthorn and 63 points the week after against Port.

There is no surprise though with the Essendon organisation and Brad Scott under all sorts of pressure with their list of injuries too long to start a season.

Early pressure killed the Bombers before their match against Port even got started with the inside 50 count at 21-2 at one stage. By midway through the second quarter the game was already over as the Power took a 49-point lead into the dressing rooms at half time.

The Bombers simply have no ability to win through the middle, giving up 64.5 inside 50s per game, the most of any team with the same ranking of 63.6% of scoring shots per inside 50.

North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis

All the positivity that the Kangas built after their 46-point victory over Port in their first match of the season is all back under a cloud after going down to West Coast by 17 points the following week.

To make matters worse, North Melbourne started the game superbly, punishing the Eagles for their mistakes and getting out to a 30-point second quarter lead. However, West Coast responded kicking 8 of the next 10 goals in the match leaving the Kangas helpless through the middle of the park.

Once again North Melbourne looked good on the stats sheet individually with Nick Larkey kicking 6 goals and Harry Sheezel (39 disposals) and Luke Davis-Uniacke (32 disposals) topping the list, however, it only translated to another loss for the Kangaroos.

Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Team Lists & News

Essendon Bombers: Mason Redman suffered a knee injury that will see him miss 6-8 weeks. The axe may be swung by Brad Scott this week.

North Melbourne: Griffin Logue will miss a couple of weeks becoming one of the hamstring casualties to start the AFL season. George Wardlaw, Charlie Spargo, Riley Hardeman and Aidan Corr are all up for selection this week.

Essendon	POS	North Melbourne
J. Prior, B. McKay, A. McGrath	B	L. McDonald, T. Pink, C. Comben
A. Roberts, Z. Reid, J. Farrow	HB	F. O’Sullivan, C. Daniel, T. Blamires
X. Duursma, J. Caldwell, B. Fiorini	C	J. Simpkin, T. Powell, D. Stephens
S. Durham, N. Caddy, D. Sharp	HF	P. Curtis, C. Trembath, C. McKercher
I. Kako, P. Wright, K. Langford	F	C. Zurhaar, N. Larkey, L. Dovaston
L. Blakiston, D. Parish, Z. Merrett	FOLL	T. Xerri, L. Davies-Uniacke, H. Sheezel
J. Gresham, A. Perkins, Z. Johnson, S. El-Hawli, A. Day-Wicks	I/C	A. Corr, G. Wardlaw, Z. Duursma, C. Coleman-Jones, L. Parker

Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2026 Round 3?

You can watch the Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2026 Round 3 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2026 Round 3?

To buy tickets to the Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2026 Round 3 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon Bombers site.

Verdict

North Melbourne Kangaroos v Essendon Bombers

Nick Larkey will kick 4 goals and Cameron Zurhaar 3+ as North Melbourne cover as 14.5 point favourites against the Bombers.

North Melbourne -13.5

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