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Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL Round 3 Tips - Blues Tipped to Edge Dees in Tight Contest

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 26 Mar 2026 11:08

Ryan Tucker 26 Mar 2026

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Carlton favored over Melbourne due to superior usage of ball and clearances.
Recommendation: Carlton 1-39 margin, Game Total under 180.5 pts.
Key player: George Hewett predicted to go over 25.5 disposals.
The game will be played at MCG on Sunday, 29th March, with the bounce at 3:15 PM (AEDT)

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Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction

The betting market has these two teams level pegged but my predictive modelling has more confidence in the Blues picking up the win thanks to their superior usage of the ball and ability to win Clearances.

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons List & News
Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

Carlton have had their early bye and will look to create some more momentum than what was made over their first two games. Trying to figure out life without Charlie Curnow up top has not been an easy task but their midfield is still extremely strong and Jagga Smith is already looking like a star of the future.

Melbourne will still need a few more games to get into their groove. They showed really good signs in their Round 1 win over St Kilda and were not much worse across the park last week against the Dockers. Their problem is being assertive across all 4 quarters and not allowing their opponent to get downhill.

This matchup is very likely to be a see-sawing battle and could come down to a couple of kicks. With Carlton being better at controlling Stoppages and scoring once they get a forward entry then they are the better side to lean in a compacted betting market.

Take Carlton with a 1-39 margin and the Game Total to go Under 180.5 pts. George Hewett to go Over 25.5 Disposals for the Blues.

9 straight games between these two teams have finished with 1-39 margin. 7 of those 9 have finished with a margin of 8 or fewer pts.
8 straight games between these teams have gone Under this Game Total, both teams have negative Attack ratings so far this season.
Carlton are +14.2 in Disposals which gives Blues players a higher chance to go Over their Disposal numbers.
George Hewett had 25+ disposals in 18 games last season.

Head to Head Stats

Carlton have won 4 straight including a finals matchup in 2023. Prior to that Melbourne had won 5 straight. 8 of the last 9 games have been played at the MCG with 7 of those games all going Under the Game Total.

Carlton are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 regular season matchups.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis

Carlton had the Bye last weekend after being involved in Opening Round. Their most recent game was a Round 1 win over Richmond 75-71, a welcome win after their first up 63 pt loss to the Swans to open the season.

The Blues were in danger of again ending up on the wrong side of a boilover but were able to steady late to secure victory. Jagga Smith had 16 disposals in the first quarter in just his 2nd game of AFL footy, finishing with a game high 32 touches.

Carlton dominated the Stoppages, winning Hitouts 39-24 and Stoppage Clearances 26-17.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis

Melbourne trailed from start to finish in their game against Freo last weekend eventually losing by 48 pts. When Kozzie Pickett scored with 5 minutes left of the 2nd quarter, the margin was only 20 pts but it only grew from there with Freo kicking 2 quick ones before the half time break.

Max Gawn was again solid in the middle with 28 Hitouts, 7 Clearances and 23 Disposals confirming his selection as a top 10 player in the league this season. Ed Langdon kicked 2 against his former team but there were no real standout performers across the park for the Dees.

Melbourne weren’t far off in a lot of aspects but the opposition efficiency in their forward 50 kept the margin ticking up.

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons List & News

Carlton Blues Team News: Debutant Talor Byrne headlines multiple inclusions, with Blake Acres also returning. Cooper Lord misses through illness.

Melbourne Demons Team News: Tom McDonald returns for his 250th game, replacing injured Daniel Turner.

Carlton	POS	Melbourne
L. Young, J. Weitering, H. Dean	B	H. Petty, J. Lever, C. Jiath
O. Hollands, M. McGovern, O. Florent	HB	B. Howes, T. McDonald, C. Salem
M. Carroll, P. Cripps, C. Chesser	C	X. Lindsay, T. Sparrow, H. Langford
W. Hayward, E. Hollands, Z. Williams	HF	K. Chandler, J. van Rooyen, H. Sharp
T. Byrne, H. McKay, B. Kemp	F	B. Fritsch, B. Mihocek, K. Pickett
M. Pittonet, J. Smith, S. Walsh	FOLL	M. Gawn, C. Windsor, J. Steele
B. Acres, G. Hewett, H. O’Keeffe, B. Ainsworth, J. Boyd, L. Fogarty, F. Evans, L. Cowan	I/C	K. Tholstrup, J. Culley, E. Langdon, B. Laurie, T. Rivers, M. Heath, L. Pickett, P. Cross

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 3?

You can watch the Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 3 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 3?

To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 3 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues site.

Verdict

Carlton Blues v Melbourne Demons

Take Carlton with a 1-39 margin and the Game Total to go Under 180.5 pts. George Hewett to go Over 25.5 Disposals for the Blues.

Carlton 1-39

Winning Margin

$2.50 - 2 Units

Take it to the Neds Level

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Bet at Neds

Under 180.5

Game Total

$1.90 - 2 Units

Challenger 'NextBet' is here

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Bet at NextBet

G Hewett over 25.5

Disposals

$1.87 - 2 Units

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