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Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows AFL Round 3 Tips - Geelong Too Strong at Home

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Wed 25 Mar 2026 09:03

Ryan Tucker 25 Mar 2026

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Geelong Cats expected to win due to strong forward line.
Adelaide Crows hindered by injuries to key players.
Jeremy Cameron and Tom Atkins predicted to perform well.
The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday, 26th March, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEDT)

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows AFL Round 3 Tips

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction

Geelong will win this matchup thanks to their superior forward line and ability to convert under pressure in tight situations.

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Team Lists & News
Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

The Cats are coming off their early season bye and are settled with no major lineup changes expected. They are one of the highest performing teams on their home turf over the last 7 seasons with a 45-13 record at GMHBA Stadium. They have won the last 3 matchups vs Adelaide there as well as the last 5 overall against this opponent.

The Crows showed fight to keep with the Bulldogs last week and are on all accounts performing better than what analysts had them pegged at during the pre-season. But now two important pieces in Rory Laird and Callum Ah Chee will both miss at least a month with their respective injuries which hits that experienced core.

Article: AFL Hamstring Injury Crisis

Adelaide had just a 38.% efficiency rate Inside 50 against the Bulldogs and now they face a Cats defence that have historically had the matchup advantage.

Geelong put 110 past Fremantle in their last game which is no easy feat. Look for them to open up the ground at home and control tempo to grind out the win.

The top picks from top AFL Bookmakers in this game are Geelong to win and cover the -16.5 line at home with the Game Total going Over. Jeremy Cameron has had success against the Crows, grab him for 3+ majors and for Tom Atkins to go over 19.5 disposals.

Geelong have won 8 of the last 9 vs Adelaide and 4 straight at home vs the Crows.
3 of the last 4 between these teams have gone Over and the predictive modelling has the game at an 84% chance of going Over.
Jeremy Cameron kicked 4 against Adelaide in Rd5 last year and has 15 goals in his last 4 games against them.
Tom Atkins had 23 disposals vs Adelaide last year and had 20+ in 8 of his last 10 games.

Head to Head Stats

Geelong have won 5 straight and 8 of the last 9 against Adelaide heading into this matchup. Last year’s lone game ended 119-100 at the Adelaide Oval with location being neither here nor there in affecting results.

Geelong have been double digit favourites in 6 of the 9 games and have a 5-4 ATS record in the span. The last 2 games have gone Over the Game Total as have 6 of the last 9.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis

Geelong watched from the sidelines in Round 2 with their first bye due to playing in Opening Round. Their most recent matchup was a 110-100 win over Fremantle in Round 1, a game where they were able to turn over a 35 pt deficit.

Max Holmes and Bailey Smith both had 30+ touches while Shannon Neale was unstoppable up top with 5 goals. The team was not efficient inside 50, with just a 56% rating but with 60 entries, it mattered little in the end.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis

Adelaide went down by a goal 94-88 in their home opener against the Bulldogs last weekend. One of the most exciting games of the round saw the Bulldogs lead for the majority of the game before a resurgence in the 4th quarter gave the Crows the lead late.

But they were unable to hold on, the win slipping away in the final minutes. Tex Walker looked to have turned back the clock with 3 goals while Jordan Dawson was one of the key momentum changers late, he had 25 touches with 8 clearances, strengthening the call of him being included in the Top 10 AFL players of 2026.

For Adelaide it all came down to efficiency up forward and a lack of defensive pressure in their forward half which allowed their opponent to move the ball out far too easily.

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Team Lists & News

Geelong: Brad Close is omitted and Patrick Dangerfield is out with a calf injury. Ollie Henry and Oli Wiltshire return.

Adelaide: Huge outs with Rory Laird, Jordan Dawson and Callum Ah Chee injured, while Taylor Walker is managed. Four inclusions including debutant Finnbar Maley.

Geelong	POS	Adelaide Crows
C. O’Sullivan, S. De Koning, J. Henry	B	N. Murray, J. Butts, C. Jones
Z. Guthrie, T. Stewart, L. Humphries	HB	H. Bond, J. Worrell, W. Milera
M. Blicavs, B. Smith, M. O’Connor	C	B. Cook, J. Peatling, I. Cumming
G. Miers, S. Mannagh, O. Dempsey	HF	I. Rankine, A. Neal-Bullen, B. Keays
J. Cameron, S. Neale, J. Martin	F	Z. Taylor, R. Thilthorpe, D. Fogarty
M. Edwards, T. Atkins, M. Holmes	FOLL	L. McAndrew, S. Berry, J. Rachele
O. Mullin, J. Clark, T. Bruhn, O. Wiltshire, O. Henry	I/C	L. Nankervis, F. Maley, L. Pedlar, J. Soligo, M. Michalanney

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

How to watch Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 3?

You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 3 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 3?

To buy tickets to the Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 3 game check the AFL website or the official Geelong Cats site.

Verdict

Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows

Geelong to win and cover the -16.5 line at home with the Game Total going Over. Jeremy Cameron has had success against the Crows, grab him for 3+ majors and for Tom Atkins to go over 19.5 disposals.

Geelong -16.5

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