AFL Grand Final 2025 – First Goal Scorer Tips & Value Plays

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 25 Sep 2025 16:33

Adam Cusworth 25 Sep 2025

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Jeremy Cameron is top pick after 88 goals and past Grand Final impact.
Midfielders scored first in 10 of last 15 Grand Finals, Zac Bailey and Ollie Dempsey offer strong value.
Best Bet Staking: 4 units on Cameron, 3 on Bailey, 2 on Dempsey, 1 on Dunkley.

First Goal Scorer Tips & Value Plays

2025 AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorer Preview

2025 AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorer Preview
Geelong vs Brisbane 2025 Leading Goalscorers
Geelong vs Brisbane Head to Head (last five matches)
Geelong vs Brisbane First Goalscorers Head to Head
Geelong First Goalscorers
Brisbane First Goalscorers
Previous Grand Final First Goalscorers
2025 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer- Best Bets

Predicting the first goal scorer in the AFL Grand Final is always a challenge, but with careful analysis of form, match-ups, and historical trends, you can find some value in the market. We have done the work for you so read on below for our Expert Tips!

This year, Geelong’s Jeremy Cameron leads the betting at $7.50 with Dabble, just ahead of Brisbane’s Logan Morris at $10.50. A number of players follow in the $13 to $16 range, including Tyson Stengle, Patrick Dangerfield, Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Shannon Neale, Kai Lohmann, Shaun Mannagh, and Charlie Cameron.

Geelong vs Brisbane 2025 Leading Goalscorers

Jeremy Cameron’s case as favourite is well justified. He leads all goal scorers in this Grand Final with 88 majors in 2025 and has consistently impacted early in games, including kicking Geelong’s first goal in the Qualifying Final against Brisbane and opening the scoring in the 2019 Grand Final while playing for GWS. Shannon Neale (43 goals) and Tyson Stengle (34) have also been solid contributors for the Cats, with Neale kicking the first in Rounds 23 and 24.

Jeremy Cameron 88
Shannon Neale 43
Tyson Stengle 34
Ollie Dempsey 31
Shaun Mannagh 30
Patrick Dangerfield 30

Brisbane’s leading scorer, Logan Morris, has booted 52 goals this season and has had early scoreboard impact in his last two outings, including the opening goal in the Semi Final. Zac Bailey (39 goals) and Cam Rayner (35) are also heavily involved early in matches, while Charlie Cameron remains a dangerous forward, having kicked the first goal in the Qualifying Final against Geelong.

Logan Morris 52
Zac Bailey 39
Cam Rayner 35
Charlie Cameron 28
Eric Hipwood 25
Callum Ah Chee 24

Geelong vs Brisbane Head to Head (last five matches)

Looking at recent head-to-head clashes between the two sides, Logan Morris, Cam Rayner, and Jeremy Cameron have each kicked nine goals across the last five meetings. Oliver Henry follows with eight but is unlikely to play in the decider, while Zac Bailey and Kai Lohmann have five apiece. Cam Rayner was also the first goal scorer in the 2024 Preliminary Final, and Oliver Henry got things started in Round 3 last season. Levi Ashcroft (Round 15) and Lincoln McCarthy (2024 Round 6) are others to have struck early.

9 Logan Morris
9 Cam Rayner
9 Jeremy Cameron
8 Oliver Henry
5 Zac Bailey
5 Kai Lohmann

Geelong vs Brisbane First Goalscorers Head to Head

Brisbane got off to a flyer in the Round 15 match when winning in Geelong, while Charlie Cameron got the Lions off to a good start in the Qualifying Final before Geelong took over. He has featured early in recent contests, as well as Geelong’s Jeremy Cameron. Cam Rayner has also had an impact for the Lions, as has Oliver Dempsey for the Cats.

Qualifying Final- Charlie Cameron
Round 15– Levi Ashcroft
Round 3- Oliver Henry
2024 Preliminary Final- Cam Rayner
2024 Round 6- Lincoln McCarthy

Geelong First Goalscorers

In terms of team-specific form, Geelong conceded the first three goals in their Preliminary Final before Patrick Dangerfield gave them a spark late in the first quarter. Cameron has kicked the Cats’ first in two of their past three matches, while Neale has done so twice in the past five.

Preliminary Final– Patrick Dangerfield*
Qualifying Final- Jeremy Cameron*
Round 24- Jeremy Cameron
Round 23- Shannon Neale
Round 22- Shannon Neale

* Geelong’s first goal of the game, first overall goal went to the opposition for that match

Brisbane First Goalscorers

Brisbane, on the other hand, have kicked the first goal just once in their last three games — that coming via Charlie Cameron in the Qualifying Final. Josh Dunkley, not typically known for his goalkicking, opened the scoring for the Lions in the Preliminary Final against Collingwood, adding himself to the list of possible roughies.

Preliminary Final– Josh Dunkley*
Semi Final – Logan Morris*
Qualifying Final- Charlie Cameron
Round 24- Hugh McCluggage*
Round 23- Zac Bailey

* Brisbane’s first goal of the game, first overall goal went to the opposition for that match

Previous Grand Final First Goalscorers

Recent Grand Final trends tell an interesting story. In the past 15 Grand Finals, the first goal has been kicked by a midfielder 10 times, a forward just five, and only once by a ruckman (Darren Jolly in 2010). Despite that, Cameron remains a strong forward option due to his consistent early impact and past Grand Final performance.

Brisbane conceded the first goal in the past two Grand Finals, while Tom Hawkins opened Geelong’s account in 2023. An interesting stat is that in the past 15 seasons, the first goal in the Grand Final has come from a midfielder on 10 occasions and a ruckman once (Darren Jolly 2010). Forwards have broken through five times, including Jeremy Cameron when he played for GWS against Richmond in the 2019 Grand Final.

Year	Player	Club	Position
2024	Will Hayward	Sydney	Forward
2023	Nick Daicos	Collingwood	Midfield
2022	Tom Hawkins	Geelong	Forward
2021	Christian Petracca	Melbourne	Midfield
2020	Dion Prestia	Richmond	Midfield
2019	Jeremy Cameron	GWS	Forward
2018	Travis Varcoe	Collingwood	Midfield
2017	Rory Sloane	Adelaide	Midfield
2016	Luke Parker	Sydney	Midfield
2015	Luke Shuey	West Coast	Midfield
2014	Josh Kennedy	Sydney	Midfield
2013	Jack Gunston	Hawthorn	Forward
2012	Xavier Ellis	Hawthorn	Midfield
2011	Travis Varcoe	Geelong	Midfield
2010	Darren Jolly	Collingwood	Ruck
2010	Tyson Goldsack	Collingwood	Defender

2025 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer- Best Bets

Taking all this into account, the best first goal scorer bets can be structured with a staking plan of 4, 3, 2, and 1 units. Jeremy Cameron stands out as the most reliable option based on his season output and proven Grand Final experience. Zac Bailey represents strong value, especially given the trend favouring hybrid forward/midfielders and his tendency to score early — including Brisbane’s first in the 2023 decider. Ollie Dempsey, the 2024 Rising Star, is an emerging force and was influential against Brisbane in the Qualifying Final, while Josh Dunkley is a bold outsider pick who has a habit of surprising when least expected.

While no first goal scorer bet is ever guaranteed, combining recent form, historical data, and individual player stats provides a clearer edge. Cameron remains the standout, but with midfielders dominating the Grand Final trend, names like Bailey and Dempsey should not be ignored. And for punters chasing value, Dunkley offers the kind of upside worth a speculative shot.