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AFL Finals Predictions 2026: Who Will Win the Premiership?

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Wed 26 Aug 2026 12:56

Jesse Mclure 59 minutes ago

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Fremantle predicted to win 2026 AFL Premiership over Brisbane
Murphy Reid tipped for Norm Smith Medal; Logan Morris for first goal
Exciting finals set with key wins forecast for Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, and Adelaide

Finals Predictions (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)

AFL Finals Predictions 2026: Who Will Win the Premiership?
Wildcard: Carlton to Beat Melbourne
Wildcard: Collingwood to Beat the Western Bulldogs
Qualifying Final: Fremantle to Beat Hawthorn
Qualifying Final: Brisbane to Beat Sydney
Elimination Final: Geelong to End Carlton's Run
Elimination Final: Adelaide to Beat Collingwood
Semi-Final: Geelong to Knock Hawthorn Out in Straight Sets
Semi-Final: Adelaide to End Sydney's Season
Preliminary Final: Fremantle to Beat Adelaide
Preliminary Final: Brisbane to Beat Geelong
2026 AFL Grand Final: Fremantle vs Brisbane
AFL Premiership Prediction: Fremantle
Norm Smith Medal Prediction: Murphy Reid
First Goal Kicker Prediction: Logan Morris

AFL Finals Predictions 2026: Who Will Win the Premiership?

The 2026 AFL Finals are here, with 10 teams still alive and one of the most unpredictable finals series in recent memory ahead of us.

Carlton have stormed into September on the back of a remarkable second half of the season. Fremantle have been the most consistent team in the competition. Brisbane are hunting a third consecutive premiership, while Sydney, Hawthorn, Geelong and Adelaide all have legitimate reasons to believe they can reach the Grand Final.

So who wins it?

Here is Jesse’s complete prediction for the 2026 AFL Finals, from the wildcard round through to the Grand Final.

Wildcard: Carlton to Beat Melbourne

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Prediction: Carlton by 8 points

This is incredibly difficult because neither side deserves an early exit.

Melbourne have produced some outstanding football this year, including wins over Fremantle and Adelaide, but their recent loss to the Western Bulldogs adds some uncertainty heading into September.

Carlton, meanwhile, have been one of the AFL’s form teams since Round 10.

The Blues blew a 42-point lead against Melbourne earlier in the season, but that came under Michael Voss and before their dramatic change in style and confidence.

Current form gets Carlton over the line.

Wildcard: Collingwood to Beat the Western Bulldogs

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Prediction: Collingwood by 1 point

This could be the closest game of the opening weekend.

The Bulldogs have been difficult to trust throughout 2026. Injuries haven't helped, but they also haven't consistently reached the devastating offensive level we know this list is capable of producing.

Collingwood's system remains incredibly strong, particularly defensively. Even with key players missing late in the season, the Magpies have generally held together.

It could go either way, but Collingwood just gets the nod.

Qualifying Final: Fremantle to Beat Hawthorn

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Fremantle at Optus Stadium is one of the toughest assignments in football.

Hawthorn caused them problems when these sides met earlier in the season, particularly through their turnover game, before Fremantle eventually took control and kicked away.

Questions will inevitably be asked about the Dockers' finals experience, but the sample size is still small and this version of Fremantle is considerably stronger.

At home, they should be too good.

Qualifying Final: Brisbane to Beat Sydney

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The 2024 Grand Final rematch arrives with Brisbane chasing a third straight premiership.

Sydney beat the Lions comfortably earlier in the season, but both teams have changed significantly since then. Brisbane are finding some ominous form at exactly the right time, while the Swans enter September as more of an unknown quantity.

A fully firing Brisbane remain incredibly difficult to stop.

The Lions advance directly to another preliminary final.

Elimination Final: Geelong to End Carlton's Run

Carlton have given Geelong plenty of problems at the MCG and should enter this matchup believing they can win.

But September Geelong is different.

We've seen this repeatedly in recent seasons. Questions surround the Cats throughout the home-and-away campaign, then finals arrive and suddenly they produce their best football.

Carlton's incredible run ends here.

Elimination Final: Adelaide to Beat Collingwood

If Adelaide want to prove they belong among the AFL's genuine contenders, this is the game they need to win.

Collingwood have an excellent record against the Crows and travel extremely well to Adelaide Oval, giving them a significant psychological edge.

But Adelaide now have something they didn't have during their previous finals campaign: an even better version of Izak Rankine.

Rankine has elevated himself again in 2026 and shapes as exactly the type of player capable of deciding a final.

Adelaide finally overcome the Collingwood hurdle.

Semi-Final: Geelong to Knock Hawthorn Out in Straight Sets

This would be brutal for Hawthorn.

After losing to Fremantle in Perth, the Hawks would return to the MCG and immediately run into Geelong.

The Cats beat Hawthorn in last year's preliminary final and, despite the Hawks finishing above them this season, there isn't a huge gap between these sides.

If Geelong arrive in the form expected of them in September, they can do it again.

Cats through. Hawks out in straight sets.

Semi-Final: Adelaide to End Sydney's Season

This is where things get interesting.

Adelaide have already beaten Sydney at the SCG recently and have shown they can travel extremely well to this ground.

The Crows should also arrive with their best players available and confidence from finally overcoming Collingwood.

Sydney are absolutely capable of winning this, but Adelaide have the matchup, recent history and enough top-end talent to cause another upset.

The Swans' season ends at home.

Preliminary Final: Fremantle to Beat Adelaide

This is where Adelaide's run ends.

The Crows have enough quality to make Fremantle work, but there is a clear gap between the two teams.

Fremantle have generally controlled this matchup and Adelaide threw plenty at them in Perth late in the season without getting the result.

With a Grand Final on the line and Optus Stadium behind them, the Dockers should be too strong.

Fremantle advance to their second AFL Grand Final and their first wearing purple.

Preliminary Final: Brisbane to Beat Geelong

Another chapter in what has become one of the AFL's great modern finals matchups.

Geelong smashed Brisbane earlier this season when the Lions were struggling, but Brisbane returned the favour later in the year as their best football began to reappear.

That's the Brisbane side I'm backing in September.

When the Lions reach their top level, they can tear apart even elite opposition.

Brisbane advance to a third consecutive Grand Final.

2026 AFL Grand Final: Fremantle vs Brisbane

This feels like the Grand Final the season deserves.

Fremantle have been the competition's most consistent team.

Brisbane have the highest ceiling.

The Lions can stay with an opponent for two or three quarters before suddenly unleashing a run that destroys a game. The problem for Brisbane is that Fremantle can do exactly the same thing.

There isn't much separating them.

But after being the best team across the season, I'm backing Fremantle to finish the job.

AFL Premiership Prediction: Fremantle

The Dockers have been good enough for long enough that this no longer feels like a speculative premiership pick.

They are complete, consistent and incredibly difficult to break down.

And if Fremantle don't win the flag this year, their list profile suggests another opportunity won't be far away.

But I don't think they'll have to wait.

2026 AFL Premiers: Fremantle Dockers

Norm Smith Medal Prediction: Murphy Reid

If Fremantle win a relatively comfortable Grand Final, Murphy Reid shapes as exactly the type of player who could cash in on the work being done around him.

Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong would be obvious candidates in a tight, contested Grand Final, while Shai Bolton has the ability to explode on the biggest stage.

But the prediction is for Fremantle to eventually break Brisbane open.

And if that happens, Reid could be everywhere.

Norm Smith Medal: Murphy Reid

First Goal Kicker Prediction: Logan Morris

There isn't much science behind predicting the first goal of a Grand Final, but if Brisbane and Fremantle meet as expected, Logan Morris gets the final selection.

First Goal Kicker: Logan Morris