AFL Norm Smith Medal Preview – Who Takes Centre Stage on Grand Final Day?

Adam Cusworth

Editor

Last updated: Thu 25 Sep 2025 16:35

Adam Cusworth 25 Sep 2025

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Midfielders have won 18 of 25 Norm Smith Medals since 2000, but value exists in forwards/outsiders.
Key contenders: Jeremy Cameron & Ollie Dempsey for Geelong, Zac Bailey & Josh Dunkley for Brisbane.
Recent form, stats, and historical trends suggest Cameron (Geelong) is the top pick, Bailey/Dunkley strong for Brisbane.

AFL Norm Smith Medal Preview

AFL Norm Smith Medal Preview – Who Will Take Centre Stage on Grand Final Day?

AFL Norm Smith Medal Preview – Who Takes Centre Stage on Grand Final Day?
Norm Smith Medal – Winners by Role Since 2000
Norm Smith Medal – Geelong vs Brisbane Form Analysis
Norm Smith Medal Best Bets
Norm Smith Medal Best Value
Verdict

The Norm Smith Medal may just be the most coveted individual honour in AFL footy.

While the Brownlow and Coleman tell us who starred across a season, there’s nothing quite like being the best performer on the game’s biggest stage.

Introduced in 1979 and named after Melbourne coaching legend Norm Smith, the award is decided by an independent panel of experts. It’s the medal where reputations are cemented in one unforgettable four-quarter performance - just ask Dustin Martin, Gary Ablett, or Andrew McLeod.

What makes the ‘Norm’ unique is that you don’t need a career-best season to win it. You simply need to dominate the Grand Final itself, which is why we’ve seen a mix of champions, role players, and unlikely heroes take it home.

This year, the Geelong trio of Bailey Smith ($6), Max Holmes ($7) and Patrick Dangerfield ($7.50) are favoured in the market with Elitebet, while the 2024 winner Will Ashcroft is rated as Brisbane's best hope at $10 from his teammate, Hugh McCluggage, at $12. The Geelong spearhead, Jeremy Cameron, is next best at $15

Norm Smith Medal – Winners by Role Since 2000

Breaking down the 25 medals awarded since 2000 (including the two in the 2010 draw and replay) shows just how much the contest favours midfielders.

Midfielders – 18
Forwards – 4
Defenders – 3

This breakdown shows why midfielders are traditionally the safest play, but flankers and outside runners often loom as value picks capable of producing the X-factor with stars like Steve Johnson and Cyril Rioli proving to be the difference for their sides, while the two-time winner, Luke Hodge, starred across half-back for his side in 2008 and 2014. The midfield brigade include a number that have been able to slide forward and kick multiple goals. The three-time Norm Smith Medal winner, Dustin Martin, kicked a total of 10 goals in the three years he won the award.

Norm Smith Medal – Geelong vs Brisbane Form Analysis

The 2025 Grand Final pits Geelong against Brisbane for the fourth time this season. The Lions lead the head-to-head 2–1, but Geelong’s 38-point Qualifying Final win looms large.

A look at Coaches Votes and Brownlow Votes from their three meetings this year reveals who has impressed the most:

Total Coaches Votes (3 matches)

Harris Andrews (BRI) – 13
Will Ashcroft (BRI) – 12
Hugh McCluggage (BRI) – 11
Ollie Dempsey (GEE) – 9
Logan Morris (BRI) – 8
Max Holmes (GEE) – 7

Notably, Andrews’ impact down back and Ashcroft’s composure through the middle underline Brisbane’s consistency, while Dempsey’s breakout Qualifying Final (9 votes) and Holmes’ steady build highlight Geelong’s younger brigade.

Dayne Zorko attracted six Brownlow Votes from the two home and away clashes between the two sides while Hugh McCluggage, Cam Rayner and Harris Andrews also caught the attention of the umpires in those matches.

Norm Smith Medal Best Bets

Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)

Forwards rarely claim the medal, but Cameron is no ordinary forward. With 88 goals this season, he shapes as Geelong’s game-breaker. He was superb in the Preliminary Final (three goals and assists) and already has four majors against Brisbane earlier this year. History says the medal usually comes from the winning team — and if Geelong get up, Cameron’s scoreboard influence could tip the judges his way. Multiple goals in five straight MCG outings add weight to his case.

Zac Bailey (Brisbane)

Bailey fits the mould of the Norm Smith smoky. Explosive, clean by foot, and a proven finals spark, he racked up 21 disposals and two goals in the Preliminary Final win over Collingwood. Earlier this year he notched 27 touches against Geelong, showing he can trouble the Cats’ defence. If Brisbane surge, Bailey has the attributes to turn the tide with moments of brilliance — a Cyril Rioli-style impact could put him in medal contention at double-figure odds.

Norm Smith Medal Best Value

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane)

Built for finals footy, Dunkley’s contested ball and two-way pressure make him an ideal Norm Smith candidate. He’s had 25+ disposals in six straight games against Geelong, including a huge 26 touches and 10 tackles in the Qualifying Final. With Neale under injury clouds and McCluggage likely to cop a tag, Dunkley’s reliability through the midfield gives Brisbane a steadying hand. If the Lions win, expect his name to be front and centre.

Ollie Dempsey (Geelong)

Fresh off his Rising Star triumph in 2024, Dempsey has elevated again this finals series. His Qualifying Final performance against Brisbane — 25 disposals, three goals — showed he can rise to the occasion. With Cameron, Dangerfield and Stengle likely to draw Brisbane’s defensive heat, Dempsey could again be the one to slip free. If he repeats that effort on Grand Final day, he’s every chance to emulate Bobby Hill’s 2023 heroics as an outside-the-box winner.

Verdict

The history books favour midfielders, but this Grand Final shapes as one where the flanks and forwards could break the mould. Jeremy Cameron looms as the clear best bet if Geelong win, while Zac Bailey provides serious value as Brisbane’s match-turner. Dunkley’s finals-hardened game makes him a smoky if the Lions prevail, and Dempsey is the wildcard who could steal it at long odds.