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Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL Round 13 Tips - Cats land back on their feet

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026 11:04

Jeremy Darke 03 Jun 2026

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Geelong have won last 6 games vs Adelaide and are 9.5-point favourites.
Model projects match total to exceed 169.5 points, driven by high-scoring attack.
Bailey Smith expected to have 32.5+ disposals; Adelaide face injury concerns.
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval on Thursday, 4th June, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)

AFL Round 13: Geelong vs Adelaide

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats, Round 13 2026 - Expert Prediction

Geelong have had Adelaide's measure for several seasons and I'm happy to stay with the Cats again on Thursday night at Adelaide Oval, putting in a bounce back performance after a disappointing showing last weekend.

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats, Round 13 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats Team List & News
Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 13 FAQ’s

The Cats have won the last six meetings against Adelaide, including an eight-point victory back in Round 3 this season.

Chris Scott's side had its four-game winning streak snapped by Carlton last week, but there was plenty to like in the performance if you can look past the missed opportunities.. Bailey Smith, Max Holmes and Jeremy Cameron were all influential again, and Geelong still generated enough chances to win despite but were wasteful at the MCG.

Over their last five games the Cats are averaging 113 points while carrying a healthy +33.4 average winning margin.

Adelaide comes off the bye but have been competitive in recent weeks and owns wins over North Melbourne, Richmond and Port Adelaide across the last month, but injuries to key players are beginning to bite.

Izak Rankine is expected to miss with a calf strain, while James Peatling and Callum Ah Chee are also dealing with injury concerns following the loss to Hawthorn.

The model projects Geelong by 10.2 points and a total of 189.4 points, comfortably above the current market total of 169.5. With Geelong's recent scoring profile and Adelaide's ability to contribute at home, the over appeals, while Bailey Smith once again looks primed for another huge disposal tally after collecting 40 disposals against the Crows earlier this season and averaging 32.6 disposals across 2026.

Geelong have won the last 6 consecutive matches against Adelaide and 9 of the last 10.
3 of the last 4 Crows games have gone over the game total at Adelaide Oval this season.
Geelong are averaging 113 point per game in their last 5 matches.
Bailey Smith had 40 disposals against Adelaide in Round 3 and is averaging 32.6 disposals this season

Head to Head Stats

Geelong has completely controlled this matchup in recent years, winning each of the last six meetings between the clubs.

The Cats won by eight points when these sides met in Round 3 this season and have also recorded victories by 19, five, 19 and 26 points dating back to 2023.

Adelaide has not beaten Geelong since 2021 and has managed just one win from the last 10 meetings overall.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis

Adelaide enters Round 13 with a 6-5 record and remains firmly in the finals conversation, but the Crows missed a valuable opportunity in their nine-point loss to Hawthorn before the bye.

The Crows started brilliantly in Launceston and controlled large periods of the contest before fading as the Hawks gained ascendancy around stoppages and in transition. Jordan Dawson continued his outstanding season, while Wayne Milera produced another strong performance off half-back with 32 disposals and 780 metres gained.

Prior to that defeat, Adelaide had won three of four matches, including convincing victories over North Melbourne and Richmond, while also edging Port Adelaide in a tight Showdown. The Crows have averaged 89.6 points across their last five games and own a healthy +9.0 average margin during that stretch.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis

Despite last week's narrow loss to Carlton, Geelong remains one of the form teams of the competition. The Cats had won four consecutive matches prior to the defeat and still pushed the Blues all the way at the MCG before falling by four points.

Jeremy Cameron kicked four goals, while Bailey Smith, Max Holmes and Lawson Humphries all featured among Geelong's best performers.

The Cats have been scoring freely during their recent run, posting 107 points against Sydney, 117 against Brisbane, 122 against Collingwood and 135 against North Melbourne. Across their last five games they are averaging 113 points while conceding less than 80 points per game.

Geelong's statistical profile remains elite. The Cats rank ahead of Adelaide in disposals, inside 50s and scoring output, while the model rates them as one of the strongest attacking teams in the competition with an average of 101.8 points per game.

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats Team List & News

Adelaide Crows Team News

The Crows lose two of their most important forwards, with Izak Rankine (calf) injured and Riley Thilthorpe suspended. Veteran Taylor Walker returns after injury, while mid-season recruit Hugo Hall-Kahan will make his AFL debut less than two weeks after joining the club.

Geelong Cats Team News

Brad Close has been omitted after a difficult fortnight, while Lawson Humphries misses with an ankle injury and Mitch Edwards is managed. Jack Martin, Jack Bowes and Oli Wiltshire all return after strong VFL form.

Adelaide Crows	POS	Geelong Cats
J. Worrell, J. Borlase, M. Michalanney	B	C. O'Sullivan, T. Stewart, J. Henry
R. Laird, J. Butts, W. Milera	HB	J. Kolodjashnij, Z. Guthrie, S. De Koning
D. Curtin, J. Dawson, B. Cook	C	T. Bruhn, B. Smith, M. O'Connor
C. Ah Chee, T. Walker, J. Rachele	HF	J. Cameron, S. Mannagh, O. Dempsey
A. Neal-Bullen, D. Fogarty, B. Keays	F	P. Dangerfield, S. Neale, J. Martin
L. McAndrew, J. Peatling, J. Soligo	FOLL	M. Blicavs, M. Holmes, T. Atkins
S. Berry, Z. Taylor, H. Hall-Kahan, L. Nankervis, T. Murray	I/C	J. Bowes, O. Mullin, O. Wiltshire, G. Miers, O. Henry

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 13 FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 13?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 13 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 13?

To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 13 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide Crows site.

Verdict

Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats

Geelong will cover as 9.5-point favourites and the match total will exceed 169.5 points. Bailey Smith will have more than 32.5 disposals in the match.

Geelong -9.5

Handicap/Line

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